POLITICS_ ‘Influenced’: Handful Of Bettors Dump Millions On Trump, Massively Skewing Betting Odds

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‘Influenced’: Handful Of Bettors Dump Millions On Trump, Massively Skewing Betting Odds

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DAILY CALLER NEWS FOUNDATION

Wallace White
Contributor
October 19, 2024 6:26 PM ET


A handful of bettors are putting up millions of dollars on former President Donald Trump winning the election, skewing what some consider a metric for predicting the election massively to one side.

The users “Fredi9999,” “Theo4,” “PrincessCaro” and “Michie” make up $26 million in bets for Trump on popular betting site Polymarket, The Wall Street Journal first discovered Friday. Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has a 60% chance of winning the 2024 election, compared to only a 39.8% chance of Vice President Kamala Harris winning, a massive difference from the comparatively even odds predicted around October.

Some people, such as billionaire and Trump supporter Elon Musk, see the betting markets as a reflection of the reality of the election more than the polls. Experts are still divided on whether staking real money makes betting markets more accurate than polling, according to Fortune Friday. (RELATED: EXCLUSIVE: RNC Recruited Hundreds Of Thousands Of Volunteers, Thousands Of Lawyers To Ensure Election Integrity)

“Unlike polls, prediction markets can be influenced by the interests of a small number of large players, as appears to be happening [on Polymarket],” Ryan Waite, vice president of public affairs at the public affairs consultancy Think Big, told Fortune. “The limitation here is that prediction markets often attract a specific kind of participant: people interested in betting who might not reflect the broader population and they can be influenced by deep pockets, overconfident individuals or herd mentality.”

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READ MORE: https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/19/handful-bettors-dump-millions-on-trump-skewing-betting-odds/

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