Oddsmakers betting big on Trump a week from election
By Stephen Dinan - The Washington Times - Monday, October 28, 2024
While opinion polls in the 2024 election are just now starting to swing toward Donald Trump, the online political gambling markets have been betting big on the former president for weeks.
A week before Election Day, Polymarket, a leading platform, has Mr. Trump a 2-1 favorite to win the election — the best odds he’s seen since just after he survived an assassin’s bullet in July.
At Kalshi, a U.S.-based election prediction market, Mr. Trump was tied with Vice President Kamala Harris earlier this month but now has better than 60% odds of winning.
So what gives?
“The message I get right now is the markets are moving in Trump’s favor; they’re favorable to Trump, but they’re not a slam dunk,” said Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University who has studied the markets for years and says they are usually on the right track.
A court gave Kalshi the green light this year to become the first largely unhindered U.S.-based operation.
Mr. Strumpf said polls ask random voters about their ballot sentiment at that moment, but the markets ask a self-selected group of people with at least some financial means who they think will win in the end.
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READ MORE: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/oct/28/oddsmakers-betting-big-donald-trump-week-election/
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