Thursday, October 24, 2024

COMMENTARY_ Trump will win

THE WASHINGTON TIMES

Trump will win

Harris' recent actions show she knows she's losing


Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Williams Arena at Mignes Coliseum, Monday, Oct. 21, 2024, in Greenville, N.C. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson) more >

COMMENTARY

By Michael McKenna - Wednesday, October 23, 2024

OPINION:


As we approach the end of an election cycle, it is probably time to make some predictions. I have two to offer.

Given the closeness of the survey work to date, pretty much any prediction — or no prediction at all — would be defensible. But fortune favors the bold.

This race has been former President
Donald Trump’s to lose for the last 10 months or so.

The consistent closeness of the survey research; the uncertainty as to whether opinion researchers have cured their underestimation problem concerning Mr.
Trump; the favorable issues context; the uncertainty of the extent of voter hesitancy concerning Vice President Kamala Harris; registration trends in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina; and the slight but measurable Democratic erosion among Black and Hispanic voters all suggest that if the election were held tomorrow and run 100 times, Mr. Trump would probably win 56 to 58 of them.

...


READ MORE: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/oct/23/trump-win/

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