RedState
Will It All Come Down to Pennsylvania? A Look at the State of the Race
By Ward Clark | 1:26 PM on October 16, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com
AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar
We now have less than three weeks left in this presidential election season, and Donald Trump is leading in six of the seven battleground states - Wisconsin being the exception. His lead is narrow but the trends seem to be favoring Trump/Vance. Two states in particular are liable to be the key to winning the election; if either side wins both Pennsylvania and Michigan, they win the race. As it stands now, the Trump ticket can lose Pennsylvania, take Michigan, and still win; the Harris campaign, if all else is equal and we take the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages at face value, Harris/Walz has to have both states to win. Those look to be the most likely scenarios at the moment. (You can play with scenarios using RCP's make-your-own map here.)
The most recent PA poll, conducted on Oct 9-13 by Rasmussen, has Donald Trump up by three points. The RCP average has him leading Kamala Harris by 0.3 points.
Analyst Salena Zito offered some thoughts on Pennsylvania Tuesday on RealClearPolitics radio:
Will It All Come Down to Pennsylvania? A Look at the State of the Race
By Ward Clark | 1:26 PM on October 16, 2024
The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com
We now have less than three weeks left in this presidential election season, and Donald Trump is leading in six of the seven battleground states - Wisconsin being the exception. His lead is narrow but the trends seem to be favoring Trump/Vance. Two states in particular are liable to be the key to winning the election; if either side wins both Pennsylvania and Michigan, they win the race. As it stands now, the Trump ticket can lose Pennsylvania, take Michigan, and still win; the Harris campaign, if all else is equal and we take the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages at face value, Harris/Walz has to have both states to win. Those look to be the most likely scenarios at the moment. (You can play with scenarios using RCP's make-your-own map here.)
The most recent PA poll, conducted on Oct 9-13 by Rasmussen, has Donald Trump up by three points. The RCP average has him leading Kamala Harris by 0.3 points.
Analyst Salena Zito offered some thoughts on Pennsylvania Tuesday on RealClearPolitics radio:
https://t.co/7MNMdoHeZN
— Ward Clark (@TheGreatLander) October 16, 2024
— Ward Clark (@TheGreatLander) October 16, 2024
Some specific counties, according to Zito, will be the key to winning Pennsylvania. And a couple of those counties have been, until recently, Democratic strongholds, but that appears to be changing.
The first county I'm looking at is Cambria County home of Johnstown. This is a county that three years ago was majority Democrat, now they're at almost 50,000 more registered Republicans.
Let's look at the 2020 results.
Cambria County's party registration notwithstanding, in 2020 Trump won Cambria County by more than a two-to-one margin over Joe Biden. So, it's a little concerning to use Cambria County's shift in voter registration as an indicator; it would appear more of a trailing indicator than a leading one. A heavily Democratic county wouldn't have gone for any Republican candidate by that wide a margin unless this registration change was already well and truly underway.
...
READ MORE: https://redstate.com/wardclark/2024/10/16/will-it-all-come-down-to-pennsylvania-a-look-at-the-state-of-the-race-n2180647
***
Chân thành cám ơn Quý Anh Chị ghé thăm "conbenho Nguyễn Hoài Trang Blog"
Xin được lắng nghe ý kiến chia sẻ của Quý Anh Chị trực tiếp tại Diễn Đàn Paltalk: 1Latdo Tapdoan Vietgian CSVN Phanquoc Bannuoc.
Kính Chúc Sức Khỏe Quý Anh Chị.
conbenho
Tiểu Muội quantu
Nguyễn Hoài Trang
17102024
__________________________
Cộng sản Việt Nam là TỘI ÁC
Bao che, dung dưỡng TỘI ÁC là ĐỒNG LÕA với TỘI ÁC
No comments:
Post a Comment