Nov 18 2015 at 8:13 PM Updated Nov 18 2015 at 8:34 PM
Vladimir Putin could accept Syria without Assad, Australia believes
Heavily armed police launched raids in Paris on Wednesday in the hunt for the mastermind behind last Friday's attacks. Reuters
by Phillip Coorey
Manila: Russian President Vladimir Putin could accept a new power sharing government in Syria that would not involve Bashar al Assad because Russia's ultimate interest was to keep the Syrian nation intact, rather than any personal loyalty to the current dictator, Australia and some of its allies believe.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said Syria could adopt a version of Lebanon's relatively successful model of sharing power among various religious groups. It would have to include the disenfranchised Sunnis who are attracted to Islamic State, meaning compromise and pragmatism would be required, he said.
"The people who decide who can be in or out are going to be the people in Syria. Dictating terms from foreign capitals is unlikely to be successful," he said.
He said IS's base "is a Sunni population that has felt disenfranchised or depressed in Syria, for very good reason, and felt very left out of the (Shi'ite) government in Iraq".
"A political settlement that is inclusive of the various groups in Syria, were that strategy to be effective, it would deprive Daesh (IS) of its support base in that country."
The development comes as heavy gunfire rang out in a north Paris suburb early on Wednesday as French police launched an operation to catch the alleged mastermind behind gun and bomb attacks in which 129 people were killed last week, police and judicial sources said.
Gunshots and several explosions were reported and early reports had at least two people killed and others arrested.
The Paris terror attacks have led to a renewed urgency to solve the Syrian crisis.
Western nations are ramping up the air strikes and other sponsored local military operations in Syria and Iraq, while at the same time pushing a political solution which would involve a ceasefire, and a transition to a democratically elected government in Syria within two years.
With Assad's role in any future government regarded as the key sticking point between the US and Russia, both of which agree there must be a political solution, the government believes Russia is more concerned with keeping Syria intact than looking after Assad.
As far back as regional conflicts of the 1950s and 1960s like the 1967 Six-Day War between Israel and its neighbours, Syria has long been Moscow's proxy in the Middle East and there was a strategic interest in keeping it that way.
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, who has also been in Manila for the Australia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, said: "I don't think the Russians have supported Assad, but they support the status quo."
Russia had "equities to protect" and was keen to maintain its influence in Syria, she told Sky News.
Such views have been formed over the past week as a result of multiple meetings Mr Turnbull has had with other world leaders, including Mr Putin at the G20 in Turkey on Monday, and with United States President Barack Obama in Manila on Tuesday night.
The Prime Minister said no one with whom he had met, including French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, thought sending ground troops into Syria or Iraq would be a good idea, more so given the recent failures to wipe out extremist ideology by force in Iraq and elsewhere.
"(President Obama's) position is, as he has stated publicly, you could send 50,000 Marines to Syria and they will be able to retake Raqqa and Mosul, of course, in Iraq, and they could achieve that success but what happens after that?" Mr Turnbull said.
"His view, and this is the view of the leaders of all the countries to whom I have spoken, is the presence of foreign armies in that theatre at the present time would be counterproductive given the lessons of history, including relatively recent history."
Mr Turnbull said a political settlement would be "enormously difficult" because "the enmities run very deep". While it was critical to step up the air war and locally led military campaign to try to degrade IS, he said a political settlement was the only long-term solution for Syria and Mr Putin was also of that view.
"He has a view as to how that can be achieved, as I think all parties do. The challenge is reaching agreement," Mr Turnbull said.
"You could sense in the room at Antalya (G20) there is a feeling of real urgency that there has to be a pragmatic resolution."
The hurdle will be the United States' refusal to countenance Assad being any part of such a government and Russia's insistence he be included.
Striking a conciliatory tone on Wednesday, Mr Obama said Russia was being "a constructive partner" in trying to forge a political solution.
"There is obviously a catch, which is Moscow is still interested in keeping Assad in power," Mr Obama said.
"Those differences have not prevented us at looking at how could we set up a ceasefire."
Assertions that Mr Putin and even the United States may be flexible are backed by diplomatic sources, one of whom said "there is room for manoeuvre among all the key stakeholders".
"Putin is more attracted to Syria than he is to Assad," said one official, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Ms Bishop said Australia was more flexible than the US in that it accepted Mr Assad could be part of the transition process because removing him suddenly would create a vacuum, leaving no one to control the military.
"If there was an obvious candidate to replace him we would have heard by now," she said.
Western leaders have been urging Mr Putin to focus Russia's military efforts in Syria and Iraq against IS, not the Syrian opposition forces that oppose Assad. They were buoyed overnight Tuesday when Mr Putin accepted that the Russian Metrojet passenger plane blown up over the Sinai on October 31 killing 224 people had been brought down by an IS-planted bomb.
Russia has offered a $US50 million reward for information on the perpetrators.
Mr Obama said he hoped that Russia would focus its air strikes on IS, not the Syrian opposition.
"In their initial military incursion into Syria, they have been more focused on propping up President Assad," Mr Obama said.
"If, in fact, he shifts his focus and the focus of his military, to what is the principle threat, which is ISIL, then that is what we want to see."
Mr Turnbull said: "There have been hundreds of thousands of people killed, millions of people have been driven out of their homes, it is a complete catastrophe, what is needed is a pragmatic settlement as quickly as possible."
"There needs to be a ceasefire and then there needs to be a power sharing deal.
"Whatever works to get that done is what I believe the parties will undertake."
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/game-plan-to-destroy-islamic-state-20151118-gl1tbb#ixzz3ryEHLMeT
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