WORLD_ Imagine a World Where Black Swans Really Do Come True in 2016

BloombergBusiness

Imagine a World Where Black Swans Really Do Come True in 2016

Flavia Krause-Jackson  Javier Blas
December 15, 2015 — 2:00 PM AEDT

* Oil at $100, Merkel resigning, cyber-attacks among scenarios
* Surprises more important to consider with Fed protection gone

On a clear March night in Iraq, the desert plain of the Faw peninsula and a Kurdish village near Syria and Turkey go up in flames. The next morning, Islamic State claims responsibility for the destruction of the country’s major oil pipelines.

The world immediately loses 3.5 million barrels of daily exports. As Iraq struggles with repairs, violence erupts in the oil-rich region of the Niger Delta, Algeria descends into chaos on the death of its president and there’s a coup in Venezuela. Bloated inventories protect the global economy for a while, but the industry is operating with the thinnest capacity cushion in years. Crude eventually tops $100 a barrel. The Federal Reserve reverses its rate-raising policy to avert a global recession.



Mourners pay respects to Bataclan attack victims in Paris. Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

Impossible or plausible?

Investors can’t ignore this or other so-called Black Swan scenarios following a year that surprised the world with record refugee flows and brutal terror attacks. In 2016, unexpected events will take on heightened importance as the Fed ends an era of ultra-cheap credit. Markets will lose the cushion that’s shielded them from geopolitical shocks such as the Arab uprisings and the annexation of Crimea.

Little Ammunition

READ MORE: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/imagine-a-world-where-black-swans-really-do-come-true-in-2016

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