WORLD_ Russia's S300 rockets are not a game-changer for Syria

Russia's S300 rockets are not a game-changer for Syria

By David Blair World Last updated: May 30th, 2013

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Bashar al-Assad, apparently brimming with confidence, has given an interview to al-Manar, a satellite channel controlled by his steadfast ally, Hizbollah. In this performance, due to be broadcast later today, Assad supposedly discloses that “Syria has received the first shipment of Russian anti-aircraft S300 rockets”. He adds that the “rest” will “arrive soon”.

Russia’s sale of the S300 air defence system to Syria has attracted a good deal of attention, but some important points have been overlooked. First of all, even if the weapons are finally delivered in full, Syria’s armed forces will need at least six months to make them operational. You cannot get anti-aircraft missiles up and running overnight. So putting everything at the very best, the S300 will not be capable of protecting Assad’s regime against air strikes from Israel or the West until around the end of the year. I would guess that some people will be doing their best to make it difficult for Syria to make the S300 operational, so this timetable might turn out to be optimistic.

Second, the S300 is not an impenetrable shield. If America decides to impose a no-fly zone over Syria, its air force will be able to disable this type of defence system just as it would have destroyed any other. The S300 might impose a marginal increase in the risks and costs of a no-fly zone, but not enough to be a “game-changer”. Put simply, if Barack Obama is going to intervene in Syria’s war by closing the country’s airspace to Assad’s jets and helicopters – which still seems unlikely – he will do it with or without the S300.

Finally, the Russian sale has been presented as retaliation for the lifting of the European Union arms embargo. In fact, Russia’s contract to export the S300 to Syria was signed long before the EU’s decision. In all probability, this sale would have happened anyway.

So Assad has been given a chance to trumpet his recent military successes and give the impression that the balance of the conflict is tipping his way. But there is a lot less to the S300 affair than meets the eye.

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Tags: Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Syria

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