WORLD_ Vladimir Putin: a man the West can do business with?

Vladimir Putin: a man the West can do business with?

David Cameron’s meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Sochi may be fraught with mind games, but it could help bring an end to the civil war in Syria


By Con Coughlin
8:19PM BST 09 May 2013
62 Comments


When David Cameron arrives at the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Friday for talks with Vladimir Putin, he would be well advised to bring a good book with him to while away the time.

There is nothing Russia’s whimsical leader likes more than to play mind games with visiting dignitaries. During his first encounter with Angela Merkel, Mr Putin brought his Labrador Koni to the meeting because he had heard that the German Chancellor was afraid of dogs. Koni, by all accounts a gentle creature who wouldn’t hurt a fly, sat dutifully at her master’s side throughout the session; but it was said to have been a deeply unnerving experience for Mrs Merkel, who has suffered a phobia of dogs since she was bitten as a young girl.

And Mr Putin was up to his psychological tricks again this week when John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, arrived in Moscow for vital talks on the deepening crisis in Syria. Rather than making the envoy of the world’s most powerful nation feel at ease, Mr Putin kept him waiting in a Kremlin ante-room for three hours before the meeting started, and then proceeded to fiddle continuously with his pen while Mr Kerry set out his arguments for robust intervention in Syria to end the bloodshed.

It is now Mr Cameron’s turn to try his hand at reasoning with the Russian president and, if the recent problematic history of Anglo-Russian relations is anything to go by, the Prime Minister should be prepared for some awkward moments.

There has, admittedly, been an improvement in the atmosphere between Moscow and London since the infamous occasion back in the summer of 2008 when Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, treated David Miliband, his British opposite number at the time, to a foul-mouthed tirade of abuse – including liberal use of the F-word – after the foreign secretary had the temerity to criticise Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Georgia that summer.


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Mr Cameron managed to spend a pleasant afternoon with the Russian president during last summer’s Olympic Games in London, when the world’s most famous martial arts fan took time out from talks at Downing Street to attend the closing stages of the judo competition at the ExCel Arena in east London. By all accounts, Mr Putin had a thoroughly enjoyable day, especially after one of the Russian competitors won gold. Mr Cameron will no doubt be hoping that, given the seriousness of the subject matter to be discussed, the friendly accord the two men established last summer will continue.

Before leaving for Russia, the Prime Minister told the Commons that British intelligence assessments showed President Bashar al-Assad’s regime had used the nerve agent sarin against protesters. For this reason, Mr Cameron is rightly concerned that, unless Moscow can be persuaded to back the West’s plans to arrange a ceasefire, the conflict risks spiralling out of control.

The savage cycle of violence between regime loyalists and opposition forces – which include a fair proportion of al-Qaeda jihadists – has so far resulted in an estimated 70,000 civilian deaths. But this week’s Israeli air strikes against a shipment of Iranian missiles destined for Hizbollah in neighbouring Lebanon illustrated how the Syrian conflict could easily engulf the wider region.

While there is now consensus among major Western powers that a policy of inaction on Syria is no longer an option, attempts by the US, Britain and France to stem the blood-letting have so far been stymied by the Kremlin’s refusal to abandon the Assad regime, Moscow’s long-standing regional ally.

Russia’s intransigence over Syria is driven as much by a determination to hang on to its vital naval facility at Tartus – its only military base outside the old Soviet Union – as ongoing concerns about the West’s intentions. Paranoia has been the dominant emotion driving Russian dealings with the outside world since Peter the Great, and the West’s triumphalist response to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s only served to reinforce the belief among ordinary Russians that the West was determined to heap further humiliation on their country.

The accession of many former Soviet states in Eastern Europe to Western institutions such as the EU and NATO confirmed this sense of isolation. Thus when Mr Putin’s distinctive brand of rugged nationalism first made its mark in Moscow more than a decade ago, most Russians were delighted to have a leader who was prepared to stand up to the West.

And this desire to re-establish Russia’s position as one of the world’s pre-eminent powers helps to explain Mr Putin’s uncompromising approach to dealing with any challenge to his authority. When the Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky made the mistake of publicly criticising Mr Putin’s autocratic style, he found himself sentenced to a long prison term in Siberia. The all-girl punk band Pussy Riot received similarly harsh treatment when they dared to criticise the president in a protest song.

Mr Putin’s dislike of dissent and his creation of what many have labelled a mafia state have caused thousands of wealthy Russians to flee the country, with Britain becoming such a popular destination that the capital is now known fondly as Londongrad.

But just as Mr Putin seems impervious to criticism of Russia’s human rights record, so he is determined not to let long-standing Russian allies such as Syria fall into the clutches of his Western rivals. Indeed, given his aggressive determination to defend Russian interests at all costs, there will be many people in Britain wondering why Mr Cameron is even bothering to make the trip, irrespective of the welcome he receives. The answer lies in Moscow’s growing realisation that the crisis in Syria could have serious implications for its regional interests, particularly if Islamist elements within the rebel movement were to achieve their goal of replacing the Assad regime.

One of the few areas where Mr Putin is willing to cooperate with the West is over the threat posed by Islamist militants. The Kremlin was quick to offer its assistance to American counter-terrorism officials after two brothers from Chechnya were accused of plotting the recent bomb attacks against the Boston marathon. And despite Moscow’s initial reluctance to side with the West in the stand-off with Iran over its nuclear programme, Russia has recently backed UN efforts to hold Tehran to account for refusing to freeze its uranium enrichment programme.

If Russia and the West can cooperate on such a toxic issue as Iran’s nuclear programme, then why not Syria? Certainly, in recent weeks there appears to have been a subtle shift in Moscow’s position, with Russian officials talking about their desire to support the Syrian people, rather than the Assad regime itself.

And despite the inauspicious start to Mr Kerry’s talks with Mr Putin this week, the American envoy’s aides say that good progress was made, with both sides agreeing they had a common interest in reviving former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s peace plan, whereby an interim government comprising representatives of the Assad regime and the rebels agree to run the country until a lasting political settlement is reached.

For such an arrangement to work, Russia would have to take on the unenviable task of persuading the Assad clan to end its genocidal assault on the Syrian people, while the Western powers would have the equally daunting job of persuading the rebels – minus their al-Qaeda supporters – to lay down their weapons.

Given the horrors that have already afflicted the country during the past two years, it is a big ask to expect these two implacable foes to agree to a ceasefire. But with Russian support, the plan might just be made to work, and the awful suffering of the Syrian people brought to an end.


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