WORLD_ First glimmers of American and Russian agreement on Syria

First glimmers of American and Russian agreement on Syria

By David Blair World Last updated: May 9th, 2013
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Sergei Lavrov and John Kerry

For the first time, there are faint glimmers of agreement between Russia and the US over the civil war in Syria. John Kerry, the secretary of state, and Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, have agreed that America and Russia will jointly convene an international conference. That’s a significant step because, up until now, the two powers have held rival gatherings. Regular meetings of the “Friends of Syria” group (essentially the US, Britain and their allies) have been boycotted by Russia and China. Now there seems a chance that, for the first time, all the parties in this conflict, both internal and external, will sit around the same table.

Why the change? Despite everything, Russia and the US have common interests in Syria. Neither wants the current bloodshed and turmoil to continue indefinitely. Neither wants the country to be taken over by radical Islamists. Once, Russia might have hoped that Bashar al-Assad would achieve a military victory and restore the status quo. Now that the regime has lost control over large areas of Syria – even taking into account its recent military gains – that seems a forlorn hope. And with chemical weapons now part of the equation, the risks attached to perpetual civil war are still greater.

As for the Americans, they once hoped that Assad would go quickly and be replaced by an acceptable new regime. Both of those aspirations now look unrealistic: Assad will only be prised from power by force through a protracted, bloodstained nightmarish campaign. With the steady radicalisation of the opposition, the successor regime would probably be dominated by Islamists – and just as anti-Western as the one it replaces. Meanwhile, the Obama administration is viscerally reluctant to launch another military intervention.

So America and Russia share an interest in a managed transition that would, somehow, end the conflict. But what part, if any, would Assad play? The US and Britain have always been clear that he has to go. Kerry restated today that Assad would not be part of any transitional government. Has Russia signed up to that? Meanwhile, the quest for a united and credible Syrian opposition, able to speak with one voice and adopt a common negotiating position, seems as hopeless as ever.

The first signs of a Russian-US rapprochement are not to be discounted. The question is whether events on the ground in Syria have passed beyond the ability of any outside player to control?

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