WORLD_ SYRIA_ The price will be high, but the key to Syria's civil war lies in Vladimir Putin’s Moscow

The price will be high, but the key to Syria's civil war lies in Vladimir Putin’s Moscow

The Russians have invested a lot in President Bashar al-Assad – but they know his regime is doomed

By Ehud Barak
7:59PM BST 30 May 2013


Talk about a tough neighbourhood. The unfolding tragedy in Syria has claimed more than 75,000 lives and created more than two million refugees; the Assad regime has used nerve agents against its own people; and Syrian rebel groups have videotaped executions and even engaged in cannibalism in the name of God. Lives have been lost and red lines have been crossed. Yet there seems to be no end in sight.

Besides the human cost to the people of Syria, the failure to address the crisis carries three main risks to all who have an interest in preserving peace and stability in the Middle East. First, the fires of tribal and sectarian blood-feuds are not easily doused in our region. The longer this conflict goes on, the greater the chances that a post-Assad Syria will end up a Somalia – a failed state of constantly warring factions.

Second, the more often chemical weapons are used, even on a small scale, the greater the chances that they will be employed en masse. So too, with each passing day, the prospects grow that these weapons will fall into terrorist hands. Israel is acutely aware of this danger and is committed to doing whatever is necessary to prevent Hizbollah from obtaining Syria’s lethal arsenal.

Third, the Syrian crisis, dangerous as it is, detracts leaders from effectively tackling a problem whose risks are far more acute – a nuclear-armed Iran.


Related Articles
 _ Bashar al-Assad dares foes to take him on - 30 May 2013
 _ Syria opposition: no talks until Hizbollah and Iran halt 'invasion' - 30 May 2013
 _ Syria claims Russia has started delivering S300 missiles - 30 May 2013
 _ Syria: Russia says UN resolution is 'odious' 2- 9 May 2013
 _ Bashar al-Assad 'will run for a third term if Syrian people want him' - 29 May 2013
 _ Syria: Russia to send anti-aircraft missiles to stop Western 'hotheads' - 28 May 2013


Admittedly, there are no easy answers for dealing with Syria. True, Assad’s armed forces are weak and debilitated by infighting. His air force and air defence systems could be destroyed in a relatively short time by powers both inside and outside the region. But that won’t necessarily end the fighting or secure the chemical weapons.

The other alternatives – a US, Nato or Turkish imposed “no fly zone”, the establishment of a safe corridor for refugees, and US or Israeli strikes against the chemical weapons facilities – are also not without significant risks.

While all these must remain on the table, right now the best chance for a successful resolution of the Syrian crisis is a diplomatic initiative led by Russia.

The Kremlin has at its disposal the necessary leverage to convince Assad to leave, or at least to stop the fighting. The Russians, for whom the naval bases in Tartous and Latakia have strategic importance, have invested a lot of political capital, financial resources and prestige in the Assad dynasty over the past four decades. They trained and equipped the Syrian army; they provided it with intelligence gathering capabilities. And they are on first-name terms with the Syrian generals who command the chemical weapons units.

Russian military support for Syria is not a thing of the past. Their readiness to provide Assad with improved radars for the Yakhont surface-to-sea missile systems is deeply concerning. Even more worrying is their intention to supply the Syrians with the S300 anti-aircraft system, which could alter the delicate balance of weapon systems in the region.

But despite this support, the Russian leadership, shrewd as ever, well understands that the Assad regime is ultimately doomed, even if the Kremlin prefers not to say so publicly. Nor does Russia want to see Islamic fundamentalists ruling Syria or endless civil war in a failed state. Russia has every reason to be a leading partner in a post-Assad Syria and to protect its strategic interests there.

That is why, in a mirror-image of what happened in Libya, where Russia was asked to support a European-led effort backed by the US, here Russia must be convinced to lead the international effort in Syria.

The Russians, like all of us, are far from perfect. But they are an important world power with special relevance to Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and the Middle East. Their interests and perspectives have to be seriously taken into account.

There will definitely be a price to be paid for Russia’s readiness to lead. Missile defence in Europe could be raised, as well as issues related to the “near abroad” (Ukraine, Belarus and the likes), the Caucasus power balance, possibly even some energy and trade concerns. But all these should not deter us from entering into this dialogue. They are all legitimate interests of Russia. The international diplomatic arena, though, is a Gestalt where everything is dependent on everything else. And the cards held by the US, Europe and other players make the West’s hand as strong, if not stronger, than the Russian one.

The Russians, however cool they play it, fully understand the urgency of the Syrian issue and the risks. They will surely drive a hard bargain. But President Putin operated in a very responsible manner when it came to the supply of advanced air defence systems to Iran. We still have several months before the S300s in Syria could turn operational. And however modern and effective the system is, it is not invincible or indestructible.

I believe that with the right approach, President Putin will act responsibly again, and I believe that a successful Russian-led effort in Syria could help transform its attitude towards constructive cooperation in other sour international theatres.

There is no reason why a mutually agreed special role for Russia in post-Assad Syria, to include recognising its naval interests, could not be found. While US Secretary of State John Kerry’s recent diplomatic efforts have not yet borne fruit, he and his administration should be applauded for trying sincerely to tackle it.

Given the high costs of allowing the carnage in Syria to continue and the high risks entailed in alternative courses of action, we should not abandon the effort. The key to Syria still lies in Moscow, and there is no time to wait.

Ehud Barak is a former prime minister of Israel and was defence minister 2007-13


Chân thành cám ơn Quý Anh Chị ghé thăm "conbenho Nguyễn Hoài Trang Blog".
Xin được lắng nghe ý kiến chia sẻ của Quý Anh Chị trực tiếp tại Diễn Đàn Paltalk: 1Latdo Tapdoan Vietgian CSVN Phanquoc Bannuoc .
Kính chúc Sức Khỏe Quý Anh Chị .




conbenho
Tiểu Muội quantu
Nguyễn Hoài Trang
31052013
___________
Cộng sản Việt Nam là TỘI ÁC
Bao che, dung dưỡng TỘI ÁC là đồng lõa với TỘI ÁC