WORLD_ A dangerous region_ Telegraph View

A dangerous region

Telegraph View: the Middle East is undergoing a time of profound and dangerous change - but there are reasons to be hopeful.

By Telegraph View
9:00AM GMT 03 Jan 2012
3 Comments

Iran’s announcement yesterday that it had test-fired two missiles at the end of 10-day naval exercises in the Gulf was a sharp reminder of regional instability, whether in countries emerging from decades of dictatorship or still subject to arbitrary rule. During the exercises, the government said it would close the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf, were America and the EU to impose embargoes on its oil exports because of its uranium enrichment programme. The Iranian threat has since been withdrawn but the confusing signals coming from Tehran have done nothing to calm nerves in a region racked by violence.

In neighbouring Syria, Iran’s only ally, President Bashar al-Assad, has cocked a snook at Arab League monitors by continuing to fire on unarmed civilians. In that his regime provides a conduit for arming Hizbollah in Lebanon, its fall would be a setback for the Iranians. But there are promising new openings in another neighbour, Iraq, where the Shia prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, seems set on destroying the tripartite Shia/Sunni/Kurdish consensus on which the territorial integrity of the state depends.

Meanwhile, the fulcrum of the Middle East, Egypt, is in the throes of transition between dictatorship under Hosni Mubarak, whose trial resumes in earnest in Cairo today, and representative government, an exercise which has so far favoured Islamist parties and is due to end with presidential elections in June. Political uncertainty has deterred both investors and tourists, a devastating blow to an already weak economy. Still, in contrast to Iran, Syria and Iraq, Egypt is at least moving in the right direction. Success during the coming year in laying the foundations for a stable democracy will be of profound benefit to the region as a whole.


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Showing 3 comments


simon_coulter
Today 09:29 AM
We appear to serially see pieces which highlight 'provocations' by Iran - are they being diligently seeded across our media in the West in advance of a military strike or more against that country which they will be used to justify - one which is currently being prepared in the corridors of power far away from Tehran?

Whether this is a fair analysis I do not know. What I think I can safely say is that once a theocracy with a supporting network of private thugs and a fearsome secret police is in place it can drive forward with relentless use of even scarce resources its programmes intended to advance extremist religious objectives.

This is what Iran appears to demonstrate when it comes to the development of a nuclear weapon. Ought we not to consider what is going to happen should similar theocracies emerge in the wake of the destruction of hitherto stable, essentially secular dictatorships of the sort falling all about this region?


______ percyvere
Today 09:44 AM
Don't forget that Iran vowed to 'export' its revolution by armed struggle. There is evidence of Iran's malign influence all over the Middle East and North Africa.


Calum Price
Today 09:26 AM
Well, it would be really stupid for the Iranian government to close the strait of hormuz, So I am glad that they withdrew the threat. The missile tests and nuclear breakthrough are worrying though..

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