Monday, January 23, 2012

WORLD_ Syria rejects Arab League demands - 23 January 2012

Syria rejects Arab League demands - 23 January 2012
(continuing ...)

• Arab League sets timetable for the end of Assad regime
• Syria rejects the plan as 'flagrant interference'
• Free Syrian Army resistance in Zabadani and Douma
• First day of Egypt's new parliament

Read the latest summary


An Arab League observer takes photographs of anti-government protesters in Syria. Photograph: Reuters


4.02pm: Here's a summary of today events:

Syria

• The regime of president Bashar al-Assad has rejected Arab League demands for a transition of power in Syria. It accused the league of blatant interference and claimed the proposals showed that the organisation was part of an international conspiracy against Syria.

• Syrian activists also rejected the league's proposals claiming they were unattainable. The Local Coordination Committees in Syria said the league's mission should be declared a failure. The opposition Syrian National Council said Syria should be referred to the United Nations and the international criminal court.

• The Sudanese general in charge of the Arab League mission has defended the initiative claiming it helped reduce violence in Syira Mohammad Ahmad al-Dabi blamed part of the violence on armed elements within the opposition.

• Up to 150,000 people attended the funeral of people killed by the security forces in Douma, close to the capital Damascus. Part of the town is reported to be controlled by military defectors. Activists claimed up to 18 people were killed across Syria today, including at least one defector.


• The European Union has approved a new round of sanctions against 22 senior members of the Assad regime. The EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said: "We're deeply concerned with the situation in Syria. There needs to be a peaceful transition in that country."

Egypt

• The first new parliament of the post-Mubarak era held its inaugural session. Some Salafist MPs in the Islamist-dominated parliament pledged to serve the nation only if it did not "contradict God's doctrine".

3.28pm: The activist group, the Local Coordination Committee in Syria claims that 18 people were killed today, including a child and a military defector.

It reports deaths in Deraa in the south, Homs in centre, Idlib in the north-west, Bokamal in the east, and the suburbs of Damascus. It reports cannot be independently verified.

AFP says 15 people were killed including five defectors, al-Jazeera's live blog reports.

3.20pm: "The longer the Arab League's mission in Syria is seen to fail, the greater the damage to its credibility," argues David Hartwell, Middle East analyst at IHS Janes.

Given that the monitoring mission is only allowed to operate in Syria at all with the permission of the Syrian government, the League may be optimistic in its assumption that it can strengthen and extend the mission's mandate without incurring Damascus' displeasure, especially now that the organisation has explicitly called for removal of the Assad regime. Damascus may not choose to throw out the observers for fear of angering what little support it can still muster in international diplomatic circles, but there will surely now be new, more stringent, limits on the level of co-operation it affords al-Dabi and his fellow monitors.

The likelihood of increased Syrian intransigence may ultimately call into question the point of continuing the monitoring mission, but withdrawal appears to be something that the Arab League does not want to contemplate at this time, despite the continuation of the violence. It may be ineffective but as long as the monitors are in Syria at all, goes this argument, then some form of leverage, however limited, is maintained over Syrian policy. The counter to this though, and a critique that has already been made by opposition sources, is that this makes the Arab League look weak and indirectly complicit in the deaths of civilians. If the mission is failing in its primary objective, what is the point of it remaining in the country?

The problem this has created for the Arab League is one of credibility. Making the choice of whether to stay or leave Syria exposes the potential for a major policy failure at a time when the organisation is seeking to capitalise and maintain the democratising wave of the Arab Spring by being more active and interventionist in the affairs of its members than at anytime in its history. In this context, and against a backdrop of UN political gridlock, mistakes were almost bound to have occurred. However, this does not alter the fundamental dilemma of where League policy towards should go from here.

2.46pm: Even if Washington and Tehran remain determined to avoid an all-out war, with every passing month there is a rising chance of one breaking out by accident, warns our diplomatic editor Julian Borger.

There are a spectrum of options falling well short of total closure [of the strait of Hormuz], forms of harassment of the oil trade that would drive the price of crude up and keep it up, very much to Iran's benefit, but fall short of a casus belli for war. However, exercising such options requires subtlety and fine judgment on all sides and that is by no means a given. In a period of sustained high tension, an over-zealous Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander could seize his moment to start a war, or a nervous American captain, his vessel just seconds from Iran's anti-ship missiles, could just as easily miscalculate. The last time Iran and America played chicken in this particular stretch of water, in 1988, a missile cruiser called the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian Airbus, killing 290 civilians including 66 children.

Spencer Ackerman, author of Wired magazine's Danger Room blog, fears that tensions are now so high that naval blunder could spark a war.


Speaking on Blogginheads he said: "You can easily imagine some scenario where some [Iranian] fast boats come too close to a ship in that [US] carrier fleet. Both sides are on edge, shots are fired and the whole thing escalates. The possibility of that is lot more significant than a lot of strategists are giving credit for. Perhaps I'm being paranoid."

2.19pm: AP has this account of al-Dabi's defence of the Arab League mission:

The head of the Arab League observers in Syria defended his team's work Monday, saying its job is not to stop the violence stemming from the country's 10-month-old uprising against President Bashar Assad.

Mohammed Ahmed al-Dabi told reporters in Cairo that the mission's task rather is to monitor progress on the League's plan — which Damascus agreed to in December — to end the country's crisis.

"The delegation's mission is observation, not to stop killing or to stop destruction," al-Dabi said. "If the violence stops, we'll say that it has. And if this doesn't happen, we'll say so" ...

Al-Dabi said the observers' presence had cut down on the bloodshed in Syria.

"When the delegation arrived, there was clear and obvious violence," he said. "But after the delegation arrived, the violence started to go lessen gradually."

The observers have confirmed 136 killings, committed by both sides, since their arrival in Syria, al-Dabi said. The UN says 400 have been killed.

He said that in some areas, observers had found evidence of machine guns fired over people's heads. In other places, they saw evidence of direct clashes. In yet other regions, armed opposition groups attacked security forces who were "forced to respond to this fire," he said.

1.54pm: The opposition Syrian National Council has called for an international criminal court investigation into the Syrian government's crackdown against protesters, AFP reports.

It urged the Arab League to refer Syria to the UN who in turn should call in call in the ICC, it said.

A new SNC statement also calls for the establishment of a no fly zone over Syria and humanitarian safety zones.

1.46pm: The ICC has an important clarification about the trial of Saif al-Islam., as BrownMoses notes in the comments section.

Reuters reports:

The International Criminal Court said on Monday it has not decided whether Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of the overthrown Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, should be tried in Libya, contradicting earlier comments by a Libyan minister ...

The ICC has given Libya a January 23 deadline to confirm whether and when it would surrender Saif al-Islam and to give information about his mental and physical health. It also asked Libya to answer concerns, raised by activists, that Saif al-Islam was being held incommunicado, without access to lawyers.

ICC spokesman Fadi El-Abdallah said that the court had received information on Monday from Libya but declined to give details, saying it was confidential.

1.12pm: Video from Douma, north west of Damascus, purports to show tens of thousands of people attending the funeral of 12 people killed over the weekend.

Parts of the area were reported to have been under the control of military defectors.

AFP said 150,000 people attended the funeral.

12.08pm: Here's a summary of the main events so far today:

Syria

• The regime of president Bashar al-Assad has rejected Arab League demands for a transition of power in Syria. It accused the league of blatant interference and claimed the proposals showed that the organisation was part of an international conspiracy against Syria. Syrian activists also rejected the proposals claiming they were unattainable.

• The Sudanese general in charge of the Arab League mission claimed that the presence of observers helped reduce violence in the country. Speaking at a press conference in Cairo, Mohammad Ahmad al-Dabi blamed part of the violence on armed elements within the opposition.

• The European Union has approved a new round of sanctions against 22 senior members of the Assad regime. The EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said: "We're deeply concerned with the situation in Syria. There needs to be a peaceful transition in that country."

Libya

• The new Libyan authorities have confirmed that they want to hold a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi on Libyan soil. The international criminal court has has asked Libya for access to Saif and for details about the conditions under which he is being held.

Egypt

• The first new parliament of the post-Mubarak era has started its inaugural session. The new assembly, which is dominated by Islamists, was due to elect a speaker and two deputies later in the session.

11.38am: Interesting breaking news on the fate of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, via Sky News:


Sky News Newsdesk

✔@SkyNewsBreak Libyan Justice Minister says Gaddafi's son Saif Al-Islam will be tried in Libya, not the Hague
23 Jan 12 ReplyRetweetFavoriteCNN's Ben Wedeman tweets:


benwedeman

@bencnn International Criminal Court [ICC] accepts that Saif al-Islam Gadhafi is to be tried in #Libya.

***

128 comments, displaying


PeterBrit
23 January 2012 9:13AM
Potentially serious developments in Libya at the weekend, the most serious being the pelting with bottles of Jalil and the torching of his car. This is serious because Jalil has been basically the only nationally popular and credible character leading the revolution. If he is falling out of favour with the masses, then there ia potentially serious problem along the lines of: who's going to hold all the different groups and forces in libya united?

There was so much pro-revolution progaganda flying around during the war telling people that Libya would be rich and perfect if only Gaddafi was removed, that inevitably people are hugely disappointed that currently Libya is still a mess.

Reuters: "In Shajarah Square in central Benghazi a group of protesters have been staging a sit-in for more than a month. "We are worried about the establishment of a democracy," said Suleiman Abdul, an unemployed engineer, who stood in front of an Arabic language banner reading: "Make actions, not just promises." "Our families have died for this revolution, but the way it is going it was actually better before, under Gaddafi. The banks worked, there was no rubbish and people did not have to fear all the guns around the country."


BrownMoses
23 January 2012 9:18AM
It should also be noted that Abdel Hafiz Ghoga, who was attacked by protesters early on last week, has resigned as deputy chief, and the protests have also delayed the offical release of the new election laws.


Atvar48
23 January 2012 9:21AM
Morning All

Sky Smuggled Past Army Checkpoints Into Homs

http://news.sky.com/home/world-news/article/16154459

“On the way out we spotted a family loading up a small truck with their household goods. "We're leaving the bullets behind," the head of the family told us. He added: "We're going to Damascus."
A woman appeared shouting about the nightmare of bombs and bullets. "Five families have left, just on this street," she said, pointing at the shrapnel-marked walls of her home.
Last week, when we were in a government-controlled Allawite/Christian neighbourhood of Homs, we met Allawite and Christian people from Bab Amr who had come to live with their co-religionists.
Syria is slowly splitting - there are many caught in the middle who don't want to have to be on either side.”

Just like in Libya where you had a majority who didn’t support either side in war, yet their lives are turned upside down.

More trouble and strife in Libya

Deputy head of Libya's NTC quits after protests

"We still don't know who exactly is in the NTC. There is no transparency," said Al-Rabia, a protester standing outside the building with a group of about 30 other men.
Another protester, 24-year-old Mohammed Mahmoud, said he fought against Gaddafi during the revolt and wounded his shoulder and hand.
"We fought on the front line and received injuries but we did not see the NTC with us," he said. "I have one single question: Why has the NTC failed at everything except selling oil.?

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/22/libya-benghazi-protests-idUKL5E8CM07X20120122


Libya could fall into "bottomless pit"-NTC chief

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/22/libya-benghazi-protests-idUKL5E8CM06F20120122

Iran's Press TV loses UK licence

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-16652356

Nice to see “Freedom of Speech” alive and well, OFCOM decision and not government we are told, yeah right, interestenly was looking at some blogs on this issue and a lot of people unhappy with this decision.


capmint1
23 January 2012 9:30AM
also in the news at the weekend, Iraq;

HRW raising concerns that Iraq is turning into a police state:

Iraq is quickly slipping back into authoritarianism as its security forces abuse protesters, harass journalists, and torture detainees,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch. “Despite U.S. government assurances that it helped create a stable democracy, the reality is that it left behind a budding police state.”

http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/01/22/iraq-intensifying-crackdown-free-speech-protests

the US govt assurances are are a little odd given that its security forces abuse protesters, harass journalists, and torture detainees


BrownMoses
23 January 2012 9:33AM
It's good to find the Syrian Government and opposition finally managing to find common ground on at least one issu



PeterBrit
23 January 2012 9:37AM
Sarkozy's premature recognition of the NTC may return to haunt him and Libya. Plenty of critics of the war warned that Western recognition of the NTC was far too early. Because the NTC was a self-appointed Benghazi clique of mainly lawyers and academics which didn't represent the main revolutionary forces, in Misrata, Zintan and the West. And that democratic deficit has never really been addressed. The NTC has operated largely in secret and even the interim government, though there has been an attempt to achieve a better geogrpahic spread has little democratic mandate because the NTC created it.

We just have to hope that the peace can be held untol elections in June and that those elections will somehow produce politicians who can gel into a united national, and effective government.

In the meantine the NTC badly needs to get serious about what actual money it has and what it's going to do with it. There are plenty of reports online which Libyans see of Libya planning mul-tbillion pound projectcs, but then they loo around them and see nothing improving. That's exactly like the Gaddafi period:

A professor quoted in Reuters, "The government is working without a judiciary or police. We know they are getting money from the over one million barrels of oil they sell a day, but where is it being spent?" Rabia said in fluent English.



PeterBrit
23 January 2012 9:42AM
Meanwhile in Iraq:

Rising Strife Threatens Tenuous Iraqi Stability - New York Times
Iraq becoming 'police state', says rights group - AFP
Iraq risks slipping into authoritarianism: rights group - Reuters
Rights group says Iraq is a 'budding police state'- The Independent

Looks like soon we'll be able to say for 100% definite that almost no good whatsoever came out of the Iraq invasion. CAN WE SEND BLAIR TO THE HAGUE NOW?



capmint1
23 January 2012 9:44AM
morning Atvar, PB, BM

I read the various accounts of events in Benghazi at the weekend. I'm not sure if you read the WP version, but its AP account that they picked up, its worth checking as it included some additional details not in Reuters, namely, that Jalil suspended six other delegates, and that was also the reason behind the Deputy PM resignation

this is slightly more worrying than the usual protests about corruption and inefficiency, it would be interesting to know the background of the six that were suspended, if they were secular, human rights campaigners etc

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/libyas-leader-suspends-members-of-transitional-government-after-protests/2012/01/22/gIQA5VHPIQ_story.html


shaun
23 January 2012 9:44AM
The "Arab Mission" underlines the Sunni (Qatar, Saudi Arabia) - Shiite Muslim split. The Western backed (lol, run, countries) want Assad to step down.
Note that Bahrein protests are almost never reported in the West, (with toxic tear gas !) and the 12'000 US soldiers recently sent to Kuwait could well be there to stifle Shiite protests.

BUT; in their haste to cause anothre war - one thing is being deliberatly ignored. - the mass (millions) of displaced persons in Syria. Who are NOT going to appreciate their peace and haven being destroyed yet again.
1/. Palestinians fleeing Israeli brutality (see the article on child cruelty in Israel and the indefinite "arrests" without trial or accusation, of 24 elected ministers, Dr. Dweik included, 7000 others - enabling Israel to eliminate any end to the "Palestinian problem" entailing a PA unity Governement). 2/ Those that fled the US invasion of Iraq.
The main problem is that the US and Israel will continue to create wars in the middle east even if Assad did step down. This is self evident, and until the world realises that an end to wars comes through a stop to agression, assasination, and undercover destruction, the world will will get the third world war it is trying for.

----
The biggest stupidity is by the EU who will destroy it's own economy by sending oil prices through the roof. Just who are Sarkosy, Hague and the others working for? Israel or the US? (The 60% of "Israel's Gas is on Palestinian/Gaza territorial waters and the Leviathan and other gas fields are close to Lebanon. = Lebanese war too? The supply/sale of that gas to Europe would normally cross Syrian waters - yet another reason for Israel to want a war?.)


BrownMoses
23 January 2012 9:48AM
Al Jazeera's Inside Story also covered the protests and the reasons behind them, you can watch the full 25 minute programme here.

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