WORLD_ Anarchy fears as rebels plan Libya rule in post-Gaddafi regime

Anarchy fears as rebels plan Libya rule in post-Gaddafi regime

James Hider From: The Times August 22, 2011 11:24AM
THE AUSTRALIAN


Tens of thousands of Libyans celebrate what the rebels claim to be the first uprising in Tripoli against the Gaddafi regime. Several explosions and heavy gunfire have been heard in the city. Source: AFP

WHEN Rebel forces finally wrest control of Tripoli, their progress will be nervously followed by leaders in the NATO and Arab states who have backed their fight, and who fear a dangerous power vacuum.
Haunted by the memories of chaos in Baghdad in 2003, the rebels' sponsors know that there will be weeks of tension ahead as the postwar country either stabilises under a new, inclusive government, or slides into anarchy, with rival armed factions or tribes vying for control of Libya's oil wealth.

Unlike the US and British forces that toppled Saddam Hussein, NATO and the rebels have several factors in their favour.

Firstly, they actually have a plan, which is more than the US administrators did when they entered Baghdad in April 2003.

A secret blueprint published recently by The Times shows that the rebels and their allies have earmarked a Tripoli task force of 10,000-15,000 men - none from the eastern rebel strongholds - to take charge of the capital, home to two million people and one of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's main support bases.

Also in reassuring contrast to Iraq, there is a rebel government to take charge.

It claims to have already recruited political representatives from Tripoli as well as security officers free of the ideological taint of the old regime.

NATO is keen to avoid repeating the disastrous mistakes of Baghdad, where the entire army was disbanded and the ruling Baath party purged, leaving hundreds of thousands of trained soldiers without incomes or hope, and susceptible to recruitment into an insurgency against the foreign occupiers.

That is not to say that the transition is expected to be smooth.

The longer and bloodier the battle for Tripoli is, the messier the aftermath is likely to be, with the danger of revenge killings, looting and damage to public infrastructure that will be vital for the recovery of the devastated economy.

There is also the risk inherent in the creation of the Tripoli task force itself.

There is already a rebel army in the east, and effectively creating a second, western army, carries the danger of future rivalry.

Then there is the volatility of the rebel leadership, whose members will be faced with a newly liberated country endowed with vast oil wealth, billions of dollars in frozen assets awaiting release from overseas bank accounts, and a population awash with weapons.

Last month the rebels' own chief of staff was murdered in the revolutionaries' eastern stronghold of Benghazi, the victim of an apparent internal power struggle, according to some Western diplomats.

The as-yet unsolved murder of General Abdel Fatah Younis led to the entire rebel Cabinet being dissolved, meaning that there is no effective executive power waiting to step into the breach when Colonel Gaddafi falls.

Worse, some diplomats have said they suspect the acting rebel Prime Minister, Mahmoud Jibril, of having had some role in the killing, possibly because of fears that General Younis would have emerged as a powerful figure once Tripoli fell to his forces.

"The general would certainly have gained more support once Tripoli fell, and whatever power play within the National Transitional Council had to take place before this," said one Western diplomat, who asked not to be named.

There are also deep-seated divisions between the eastern and western rebels groups, with the latter suspicious of the number of ex-regime officials who have defected and taken up important posts in the Benghazi leadership.

Libya has been effectively split in two for six months, and reintegrating the two administrations could create friction.

Analysts have noted the need to retain the professional, management classes in the west of the country in their jobs - especially in the oil sector, which accounts for 90 per cent of Libya's income.

Any purge by the rebel government may cause unrest, which in turn could delay elections, a key step towards stability.


Related Coverage

Gaddafi regime on verge of collapse - Adelaide Now, 57 minutes ago
Gaddafi's regime is crumbling - NATO chief - The Australian, 3 hours ago
Watch live - Gaddafi regime crumbles, Libyans celebrate - Adelaide Now, 4 hours ago
Gaddafi's regime crumbling - NATO - The Daily Telegraph, 4 hours ago
Rebels storm into Tripoli - Courier Mail, 7 hours ago



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