Algeria's regime: out on a limb that looks set to fall

Algeria's regime: out on a limb that looks set to fall

By giving the Gaddafi family refuge, Algeria's gerontocracy is putting itself on the wrong side of history

Comments (24)
Brian Whitaker
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 30 August 2011 12.12 BST
Article history


Algerian protesters throw stones at an anti-riot policeman during clashes in Algiers in January. Photograph: Fayez Nureldine/AFP/Getty Images

With three out of five countries now under new management along the north African coast, the spotlight is turning towards the remaining two: Algeria and Morocco.


In Morocco, where a new constitution was approved in July, the king's promises of reform may succeed in staving off a mass revolt – at least for the time being. Morocco also recognised the national transitional council (NTC) in Libya with deft timing a week ago, declaring its support for "the legitimate aspirations of the brotherly Libyan people".

That leaves Algeria out on a limb, increasingly identified with the forces of counter-revolution. Not only has it so far failed to recognise the Libyan NTC, but it is now openly providing refuge for members of the Gaddafi family.

Welcoming the Gaddafis, according to Algeria's ambassador at the UN, was nothing more than a humanitarian gesture, in line with the traditions of desert hospitality – but we don't have to look very far to see the politics behind it.

What happened to the Tunisian, Egyptian and Libyan regimes could easily have been the fate of the Algerian regime, too. In January, as the Tunisian uprising gathered pace, Algeria also experienced widespread disturbances – and for very similar reasons. Regular protests were still continuing on a smaller scale at the end of March.

The fact that the Algerian regime survived almost unscathed while others fell is due partly to the country's history – many Algerians still have bitter memories of the internal conflict in the 1990s that cost 100,000 or more lives – as well as some smart handling of the situation by the authorities. Unlike Mubarak in Egypt, they lifted the 19-year-old state of emergency and, cushioned by oil and gas revenues, were able to offer economic concessions.

Writing in Foreign Policy, Lahcen Achy highlighted a couple of additional factors. The opposition, while heavily constrained by the authorities, was divided by internal disagreements, and without a common set of grievances disparate groups of protesters – students, the unemployed, civil servants, doctors, etc – pursued their own sectional interests.

Achy also noted that the Algerian security forces are more integrated into the political system than in Tunisia and Egypt. The police force is very substantial, having increased from 50,000 in the mid-1990s to 170,000 today, and is comparatively well paid and professional. Perhaps more significantly, the security forces were careful not to fan the flames by killing large numbers of protesters.

So far, the Algerian regime has been lucky, but it has probably won only a temporary respite. By continuing to back a loser (in the shape of Gaddafi), or at least failing to acknowledge that its neighbourhood is changing rapidly, it has placed itself on the wrong side of history – a point that has not gone unnoticed in the Algerian media. As a result, pressure for change in Algeria is likely to increase now, rather than diminish.

Last week, a report from Chatham House thinktank warned:

"Algeria's 74-year-old president [Abdelaziz Bouteflika] is increasingly isolated in a fast-changing north Africa. Bouteflika, so far, has not faced a mass uprising, but the ingredients – high unemployment, anger over corruption, disillusionment with an unrepresentative political system – are all there. Rather than carrying out serious reforms, the Algerian government has responded to the Arab unrest with a mixture of money and repression."

Unlike the toppled regimes of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, the Algerian regime is not really a one-man (or one-family) show. It is more of a collective gerontocracy, whose members are gradually fading away without being replaced by new blood.

Assessing the state of the regime last year, "Kal", who blogs as the Moor Next Door, wrote:

"Over the last 10 years, many of the key figures in the military hardline – Mohamed Lamari, Smain Lamari, Khaled Nezzar, Larbi Belkheir, et al – have died, retired or grown too ill to manipulate politics. What is left are the stalwarts of the praetorian order, especially the ones most well-entrenched in the 'privatised' industries."

This suggests it's only a matter of time before the regime follows its neighbours into oblivion. Possibly Algerian leaders are hoping to keep revolutionary fervour at bay by creating difficulties for the transitional government in Libya next door but, if so, they could be making a big mistake.

As smarter approach is to accept the inevitable in Libya, as Morocco has cheerfully done, and not draw attention to their hankering for the past.

***

Comments in chronological order (Total 24 comments)


jockyscot
30 August 2011 12:16PM
The gaddaffis are victims of an imperialist environment. They should be helped to overcome their problems. The mentally ill should be protected by law.



haward
30 August 2011 12:18PM
Hmmmm.....and for how long did the Saudis shelter Idi Amin?


usini
30 August 2011 12:25PM
Biran Whitaker clearly knows far more than I do about the situation but I think some points stand out. Clearly the Algerians have some kind of free press, judging from the comments from the Algerian newspapers. How far this extends into TV I do not know.
Secondly the Algerian bloggers that I read a few months ago were very cautious. The horrible ten year civil war is still a serious constraint, and nobody wants to see a return to those times.


terua 30 August 2011 12:26PM
Posterity writing for cif. Whoever supports Western Imperiialism is on the wrong side of history, who wants to make a bet?


terua 30 August 2011 12:28PM
haward
30 August 2011 12:18PM
Hmmmm.....and for how long did the Saudis shelter Idi Amin?

and for how long will the west shelter the Saudis?


cardigansinbound 30 August 2011 12:43PM
The police force is very substantial, having increased from 50,000 in the mid-1990s to 170,000 today, and is comparatively well paid and professional. Perhaps more significantly, the security forces were careful not to fan the flames by killing large numbers of protesters.

The police force may of increased by 120'000 since 1990 but the population has increased by 15 million.

Algeria has been able to keep a much tighter lid on its suppression of protests, no major slaughter in the streets but plenty of knocks from the secret police. There's still a balance between an insurgency weary public and a desire for greater freedom from the authoritarian regime.


windupbirdchronicles 30 August 2011 12:44PM
The pursuit of western national interests in Africa is disgraceful. It's usually very violent causing leaders in the region to shake and tremble. It'\s disappointing watching my president Goodluck side with the rebels the moment Nato decide to bomb. I mean what the f**k. Where your balls. Where the hells the African union in all this. The UN aren't neutral in this at all. Yet African leaders keep quiet. Good on Algeria to stand on their own two. They ought to give the man asylum. He isn't going to get a fair trial anywhere.


Alaninwolverhampton 30 August 2011 12:50PM
I do not know much about Algeria, but taking in wives and children seems like a genuinely decent thing to do. Especially when the unelected NTC appears to want to send them all to the scaffold.

We should already have NATO's bombing campaign on behalf of the Libyan rebels on our conscience, without adding the slaughter of Gaddafi's family to that account!


HendTunis 30 August 2011 12:57PM
The same mood of caution in Tunisia too. Nervous military on the frontiers for fear of any infiltration. Given the poor nb of tourists this year, officials tried to allure the Algerian tourists with hotels and shopping (it used to be 1 million annually). But we were surprised by a number of virulent articles in Algerian newspapers: bride kidnappings, car lootings, and other hate crimes that specifically target Algerians! This never-seen smearing campaign has been very efficient, in spite of all the official promises to back Tunisia in these difficult times. We are sandwiched between Libya and Algeria and we know it would be difficult if the two don't get along.



crankymullah
30 August 2011 1:11PM
@ Usini

As an algerian I guarantee there was no civil war, it's a pathetic myth, there was a flase flag massacre commited by the military dictatorship south America/CIA style

Obviously they did a good job of painting it as a "conflict" given the amount of people who fell for that story line

I had the mother of all parties when I learned these predictible morons gave shelter to the khadafis, THIS IS ONE MISTAKE THEY WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO PAY FOR, the lybian freedom fighters will eventually support their brethen in Algeria with everything ... and then some HAHAHA



OmarL82
30 August 2011 1:11PM
Brian - please give some credit to Morocco - It was one of the first countries to support the NTC and played a massive role in rallying Arab support for the implementation of a no-fly zone. Morocco was one of the only Arab countries at the Paris conference. It is a major Nato ally and has no doubt played a logistical and intelligence gathering role on the ground.
Libya was no ally of Morocco and played a disruptive role in N-African politics by threatening Tunisia and offering support for the Polisario.
The military junta in Algiers has just lost its only ally in the region. Hopefully this will foster domestic change in Algeria as well as a change in their aggressive foreign policy. This would be of great benefit to Tunisia and Morocco.

Dont be blinded by your hatred of Morocco please.

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