With Libya on the brink of deposing Gaddafi, a look at the unpredictable final moments of other regimes
Comments (9)
Martin Woollacott
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 23 August 2011 18.56 BST
Article history
A US soldier watches as the statue of Iraq's Saddam Hussein falls in central Baghdad, 2003. Photograph: Reuters
When armies close in on a capital city in which a beleaguered regime is trying to hold out, the only thing that is predictable is that there will be surprises. Events move faster than expected, or they move more slowly. The regime going down may have rather more life left in it than expected, or it may put up far less resistance than was thought likely.
The least likely outcome is a street-by-street fight through the city – usually there is either a collapse of will by the defenders or a final political fix, which gives some of them a way out. A few examples from recent history:
Berlin 1945: the full Götterdämmerung
Hitler fought to the last teenager in the scratch units pulled together after his regular forces were worn down, what remained of the city after air attacks was largely destroyed, and civilians suffered terribly both during the fighting and after. No political compromise was possible between the Nazi leadership and the Russians. The last groups defending the bunker area were largely composed of foreigners, Frenchmen and Scandinavians in SS units.
Phnom Penh, 1975: back to year zero
The city fell to Khmer Rouge forces after the defending forces on the outskirts gave up – there was little damage and few civilian casualties. An apprehensive but cautiously hopeful citizenry expected a harsh but fair government, which would not punish ordinary people, many of them recent refugees from the fighting in the countryside. They got the opposite. Within a few days the Khmer Rouge had force marched the entire population out of the city and set them to forced labour in the paddy fields.
Saigon, 1975: crashing the presidential palace
North Vietnamese and Vietcong units raced to the centre after the south Vietnamese army gave up the last defensible bridge over the Mekong. Fears that the city would be reduced by north Vietnamese artillery proved unfounded, there was little fighting in the city itself, and few civilian deaths. The first north Vietnamese tank got lost in the maze of city centre streets but a second located the palace, where interim president Duong Van Minh was waiting in the hope of negotiating a compromise settlement, and smashed through the ornamental gates. The illusion that there could be some kind of a deal was soon dissipated.
Dhaka, 1971: the writing on the wall
Senior Pakistani officers, their forces in full retreat before the invading Indian army, decided to sue for a ceasefire after Indian MiGs bombed Government House. The only casualties, according to one account, were some goldfish whose tank was smashed, but the attack had the effect of clarifying the situation. The Indian commander, Sam Manekshaw, accepted the ceasefire proposal. Gavin Young of the Observer witnessed the surrender ceremony and according to one account had earlier had to explain to the governor of East Pakistan that he was not in a position to accept a surrender by him. There was no fighting in the city between regular forces but there were acts of retribution and revenge.
Manila, 1986: people power
The Marcos regime was toppled through a combination of civil disobedience and protest led by Cory Aquino and the defection and intervention of military units. There were few casualties, little fighting after the majority of the armed forces changed sides, inspired by the secretary of defence Juan Ponce Enrile, General Ramos and Cardinal Jaime Sin. Crowds break into the presidential palace and gaze in wonder at Imelda Marcos's shoe collection.
Tehran, 1979: not with a bang but a whimper
The shah left Iran in the charge of an interim government, but his departure so disheartened his armed forces and his civilian supporters that the whole security edifice crumbled within hours of Ayatollah Khomeini's return from exile. One small battle had preceded it, and there was virtually no fighting afterwards. Neither the feared Imperial Guard nor the Special Forces ever went into action. Most Iranians expected a government of national unity, but the reality turned out to be otherwise.
Baghdad, 2003: unprepared and overwhelmed
American forces burst into the city against sporadic resistance, which never entirely disappeared and was to evolve into a major insurrection. Looting and disorder spread through the urban region as the American units concentrated on narrow military tasks, notably ignoring the sacking of the National Museum. Confused and ill-prepared civilian administrative teams dribbled in over the next few weeks, as Donald Rumsfeld spouted optimistic one liners in Washington and the situation in Iraq deteriorated daily.
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Comments in chronological order (Total 9 comments)
martiansw
23 August 2011 6:44PM
does it have to be up to date? I may be wrong but as i understand it. Carthage was wiped of the face of the earth.
1000nights
23 August 2011 7:11PM
@Martin
"Most Iranians expected a government of national unity, but the reality turned out to be otherwise."
The reality was engineered, had been in production to be delivered and went according to the plan just before the Shah was about to do a U turn on oilfield contracts.
Iranians know it very well that because of the war, they couldn't realize what they had fought for.
waterbarbarian
23 August 2011 7:36PM
In the future when looking back to the first decade of 21 century, we will find out it is not in cold war any more, but a history of blood thirsty christians slaughtering blood thirsty Muslims, or blood thirsty Muslims slaughtering blood thirsty Muslims. But it is not called religious war, it is called the war for "democracy and freedom".
davesays
23 August 2011 7:58PM
And your prediction for the public school twits Cameron, Clegg and Osbourne is?
davesays
23 August 2011 8:00PM
Sorry, I should have mentioned their plans for mass detentions in concentration camps on Hackney marshes.
calmeilles
23 August 2011 8:06PM
davesays
And your prediction for the public school twits Cameron, Clegg and Osbourne is?
Peerages or lampposts.
daffers56
23 August 2011 8:12PM
Perhaps the reason Camergon is jetting around so much he is looking for a safe haven....just in case!!
Dave Camerom...."Relocation Relocation" coming to C5 soon.....we hope!!
daffers56
23 August 2011 8:13PM
apologies: haven should read...Tax Haven!!
Wolfstone
23 August 2011 8:26PM
Barbarians at the Gate.
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What do you think ?
Các anh chị nghĩ thế nào, có ý kiến, nhận định hay phê bình gì qua bài viết "How cities – and governments – fall" thuộc dạng "Decoding the news" của Martin Woollacott và ý kiến từ "9 comments" của đọc giả ?
Những người VN BỊ MẤT NƯỚC vào tay bè lũ phản quốc CƯỚP NƯỚC DIỆT CHỦNG BÁN NƯỚC Việt gian cộng sản VN nghĩ gì khi tác giả nói về Sự sụp đổ của VNCH qua đọan sau đây :
"Saigon, 1975: crashing the presidential palace
North Vietnamese and Vietcong units raced to the centre after the south Vietnamese army gave up the last defensible bridge over the Mekong. Fears that the city would be reduced by north Vietnamese artillery proved unfounded, there was little fighting in the city itself, and few civilian deaths. The first north Vietnamese tank got lost in the maze of city centre streets but a second located the palace, where interim president Duong Van Minh was waiting in the hope of negotiating a compromise settlement, and smashed through the ornamental gates. The illusion that there could be some kind of a deal was soon dissipated."
Trông người lại ngẫm đến ta .
Đã hơn 36 năm đất nước Việt Nam thân yêu rơi vào tay bè lũ thổ phỉ phản quốc vô lọai, là bè lũ Việt gian buôn nòi bán giống giết dân bán nước cộng sản VN, lũ súc sinh Việt gian Việt cộng và lũ tay sai đồng lõa đã và đang bôi lọ Lịch Sử Việt, đã và đang lăng nhục Tổ Tiên Việt, đã và đang HỦY DIỆT giang sơn Việt, Văn Hóa Việt và nô lệ dân tộc Việt với chủ nghĩa xuống hàng chó ngựa vô cùng khủng khiếp quá ghê tởm, vô cùng tàn độc, nham hiễm đến nỗi cả thế giới cứ nhắm mắt vỗ tay hoan hô chúng vì quyền vì lợi thì không đáng nói, nhưng điều TỦI NHỤC là nhiều người dân VN lại vẫn chưa tỉnh ngủ, MẤT NƯỚC mà không biết, đội lũ súc sinh BÁN NƯỚC lên đầu tung hô vạn tuế, đội lũ súc sinh BÁN NƯỚC lên đầu "đi chống thằng mua nước" mà không biết NHỤC. Những người VN này lại được tiếng "nhân sĩ trí thức" thì chẳng phải là VẾT NHƠ trong Dòng Sử Việt mà con cháu Việt có bổn phận và trách nhiệm PHẢI rửa sạch không ???
Còn nữa, những người Việt Nam Tỵ Nạn cộng sản, những người từng là công dân của Nước Việt Nam Cộng Hòa đã và đang định cư khắp nơi trên thế giới, nếu cứ tiếp tục nhập nhằng dù vô tình hay cố ý, tiếp tục nhập nhằng một cách u mê ám chướng, vổ tay hoan hô những "nhân sĩ trí thức" đội giặc lên đầu, đội lũ Việt gian BÁN NƯỚC cộng sản VN lên đầu đi "chống tàu xâm lược" thì quả thật đã và đang tự bôi tro trét trấu vào mặt, đã và đang trở thành những kẻ vong ân bội nghĩa với Tổ Tiên Việt, với Tiền Nhân Việt, với những Chiến Sĩ VNCH đã nằm xuống, đã đổ máu xương để giữ nước, với những Vị Tướng VNCH và hàng triệu Quân Dân Cán Chính VNCH đã Tuẩn Tiết vào ngày QUỐC HẬN 30 Tháng 4 Năm 1975, đã chết trong tù của bè lũ phản quốc CƯỚP NƯỚC DIỆT CHỦNG BÁN NƯỚC cộng sản VN cũng như gởi thây vào lòng biển cả ...
Chân thành cám ơn Quý Anh Chị ghé thăm "conbenho Nguyễn Hoài Trang Blog"
Xin được lắng nghe ý kiến chia sẻ của Quý Anh Chị trực tiếp tại Diễn Đàn Paltalk: 1Latdo Tapdoan Vietgian CSVN Phanquoc Bannuoc .
Kính chúc Sức Khỏe Quý Anh Chị .
conbenho
Tiểu Muội quantu
Nguyễn Hoài Trang
24082011
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Cộng sản VN là TỘI ÁC
Bao che, dung dưỡng TỘI ÁC là đồng lõa với TỘI ÁC
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