U.S._ Nate Silver: It's Probably Too Late for Dems not to Nominate Joe Biden

RedState

Nate Silver: It's Probably Too Late for Dems not to Nominate Joe Biden

By Ward Clark | 5:29 PM on September 28, 2023

The opinions expressed by contributors are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of RedState.com

AP Photo/Andrew Harnik


It's increasingly obvious, to the point where even the Democrats are having a hard time denying it, that Joe Biden isn't up to the job of President. But the idea of replacing him is equally vexing; how to do it, who shall replace him, will he step down voluntarily, or will he have to be removed?

Fivethirtyeight.com's Nate Silver has some interesting thoughts on that.


I’ve written a lot about Joe Biden lately. But I’ve somewhat intentionally avoided the subject of whether I think Democrats would have a better chance of winning the 2024 election with a different nominee. In the spirit of being transparent with Silver Bulletin readers, I feel like I ought to be more explicit about addressing this. However, my answer probably isn’t going to satisfy anyone:

* With medium confidence, I think the risks of a serious primary challenge to Biden at this point in time would outweigh the benefits for Democrats.

* With low confidence, I think the risks of Biden volunteering not to run for a second would also outweigh the benefits for Democrats, but this is closer.

* With low confidence, and taking full advantage of hindsight bias, I think Democrats probably would have been better off if Biden had announced 6-12 months ago that he wouldn’t seek a second term.

* I think Biden’s situation is somewhat unprecedented and that these are hard questions for Democrats. Almost no matter what happens, people in 2025 will treat the answers as having been more obvious than they actually were.

I'd like to break those down, one by one.

...

READ MORE: https://redstate.com/wardclark/2023/09/28/nate-silver-its-probably-too-late-for-dems-not-to-nominate-biden-n2164428

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