ABC NEWS
Updated Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:19pm AEDT
US president Barack Obama's jittery campaign voiced fears that Hurricane Sandy could hurt his re-election chances, as the storm forced both candidates to cancel campaign stops.
Hundreds of thousands of people are being evacuated from low-lying areas of New York City as Hurricane Sandy threatens to merge with another storm front to create what could be the biggest storm ever to hit the United States.
Nine days out from the November 6 (US time) election, all eyes are on how the potentially catastrophic storm might play out on the neck-and-neck race for the White House.
Audio: Hurricane Sandy plays havoc with US presidential campaigns (AM)
Democrats desperately need to rally Obama supporters and get them out to vote, with Republican challenger Mitt Romney surging ahead in national polls following a commanding first debate victory on October 3.
Over the weekend Mr Romney received good news in two key swing states, winning the endorsement in Iowa of the main newspaper, the Des Moines Register, and tying Mr Obama in a newly-released poll in all-important Ohio.
This morning Mr Obama was forced to pull out of an election campaign rally in Ohio because of the imminent arrival of Hurricane Sandy, the White House said.
After an earlier appearance in Florida, Mr Obama had been due to court crucial voters in the must-win state at a major campaign event alongside former president Bill Clinton and vice-president Joe Biden.
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"Tomorrow, the president will return to the White House following his event in Orlando, Florida to monitor Hurricane Sandy, which is currently forecast to make landfall along the eastern seaboard later tomorrow," the White House said.
"The event in Youngstown, Ohio will move forward with president Clinton and include vice-president Biden," the statement added.
Senior Obama strategist David Axelrod told CNN he was worried the storm could stop people on the eastern seaboard from voting early.
"Obviously we want unfettered access to the polls because we believe that the more people come out, the better we're going to do," Mr Axelrod said.
"And so to the extent that it makes it harder, you know, that's a source of concern."
Mr Romney cancelled appearances in Virginia to head for Ohio before the hurricane's arrival.
Mr Obama also cancelled events in Virginia, a battleground state that could bear the brunt of the storm's impact.
As the storm drowns out media coverage of campaign issues, Mr Obama faces a key test of his leadership under the glare of the election spotlight, raising the stakes on his decision-making on the eve of the cliffhanger election.
After attending a church service in Washington as usual on Sunday morning, the president was briefed at the headquarters of the Federal Emergency Management Agency on storm assistance preparations.
"This is a serious and big storm. And my first message is to all people across the eastern seaboard, mid-Atlantic going north, you need to take this very seriously," he said.
"Follow the instructions of your state and local officials because they are going to be providing you with the best advice in terms of how to deal with this storm over the coming days."
The vast majority of voters have made up their minds at this point, and more than one in five have already cast their ballots.
But the storm could hamper the campaigns' efforts to drive voters to the polls in the final days before the election, and will require them to ensure that their armies of door-knocking volunteers stay safe.
An extended power outage could also sideline millions of dollars worth of television advertising set to saturate the airwaves in the final days of the race.
"The poll numbers aren't changing that much and I don't think the storm is going to change that dynamic. It's just going to present logistical challenges for the campaign," Hunter College political science professor Jamie Chandler said.
A severe disruption could hurt Mr Obama more than Mr Romney because his campaign has counted on early voting to lock up the support of those who may be less likely to vote on election day, Professor Chandler said.
Officials from both campaigns said they were confident they would be able to get their message out and drive voters to the polls over the coming days.
But they recognised that, after years of obsessive planning and nearly $US2 billion in campaign expenditures, the storm had introduced a last-minute element of chaos.
"There's certain things we can't control and nature is one of them. We try to focus on the things that we can control," Romney adviser Kevin Madden told reporters.
There is some evidence that natural disasters can hurt an incumbent's re-election chances, as voters often blame whoever is in office for adversity.
Research by Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University and Christopher Achen of Princeton University found that vice-president Al Gore may have lost the election in 2000 because of severe drought and excessive rainfall in seven states.
George W Bush's approval ratings plummeted after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans in 2005, and voters could similarly blame Mr Obama if the government fumbles its response to this storm.
But there are also dangers for Mr Romney, who will have to be careful to avoid being seen as politicising the disaster.
His campaign's hasty response to the attacks on US diplomatic missions in the Middle East in September was widely criticised.
The Obama campaign said it would suspend fundraising e-mails in the mid-Atlantic region on Monday and encouraged supporters to donate to the Red Cross.
ABC/wires
Topics: world-politics, disasters-and-accidents, storm-disaster, us-elections, storm-event, united-states
First posted Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:55am AEDT
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Video: Barack Obama speaks on Hurricane Sandy : http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-29/hurricane-sandy-blows-us-election-off-course/4338632
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