Updated Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:52pm AEDT
ABC News
Photo: Staging a comeback: Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. (Reuters: Jim Young)
One short month ago Barack Obama was almost 5 per cent ahead in the average of national polls, looking like he might win a second presidential term in a canter.
Since then, the US unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level in almost four years, the Dow Jones Industrial average has hit its highest level in five years, and Barack Obama has won two of the three Presidential debates.
So why is Mitt Romney now in front?
The short answer is, of course, that other debate – the first one in Denver, Colorado, on the night of October 3.
But what we don't really know is what was it about Mr Obama’s listless, lifeless performance that has caused his supporters to rush for the exits?
Or was it really Romney’s performance, not Mr Obama's, that mattered most?
I suspect it's the latter.
After months of being pummelled by unrelentingly negative advertisements, in that debate - watched by 67 million Americans - Mr Romney appeared confident, controlled, a whole lot less scary and more moderate than the caricature that had been drawn of him.
The Republican effectively refuted tens of millions of dollars worth of attacks in the space of ninety minutes.
According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls this week, Mr. Romney is less than 1 per cent in front; yet some polls from Gallup in the past week have put the Republican nominee 6 per cent clear nationally.
Nevertheless, bookmakers suggest Mr Romney has only about a 40 per cent chance of being elected president on November 6 – why is that?
In part it's because the election has already started – with early voting underway in more than half of the 50 states, and early counting giving Mr Obama a lead.
That early voting advantage also reflects the Democrats' superior "ground game" – the campaign workers, contact lists and campaign storefronts that can get out the vote and make a real difference.
Worryingly for Democrats, however, is the sharp drop-off in enthusiasm their supporters have showed since their president displayed such a lack of enthusiasm in Denver.
President Obama's failure to present a positive plan for the future instead of just attacking the alternative might prove fatal politically.
But this race isn't over yet; every day between now and the election day will be more like a week – and we can expect more gaffes like Indiana senate candidate Richard Mourdock, who effectively said if a woman falls pregnant after a rape its god's will.
Ultimately, with under a fortnight to go, the best measure of where the race is up to isn’t the national polls, it's the polls coming out of Ohio, which typically have Obama leading by around 3 per cent.
History shows no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio and Romney’s path to 270 electoral college votes is almost impossible without it.
That's why punters are still narrowly supporting an Obama win.
In 2004 the presidential election swung on Ohio and it wasn't until the following day Democrat John Kerry conceded he'd lost the state and the White House.
It's starting to look like November 6 will be followed by a long night.
Topics: us-elections, world-politics, united-states First posted Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:48pm AEDT
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