Assad plays for time
The threat to President Bashar al-Assad's hold on power is now from within Syria
An exercise in futility? Ceasefire envoy Kofi Annan is being played for a fool by President Assad Photo: AP
By Telegraph View
8:06PM BST 09 Jul 2012
Comment
It is hard not to view the efforts of Kofi Annan to resurrect his six-point ceasefire plan for Syria as an exercise in futility. It is almost three months since Mr Annan, the UN and Arab League envoy to Syria, produced a blueprint that was supposed to be implemented by both sides in the conflict. All that has happened since is further violence, which has claimed thousands more victims, the majority of them civilians.
One of the reasons the regime of President Bashar al-Assad has treated the Annan plan with contempt is because it believes that, so long as it enjoys the backing of Russia and Iran, the West is powerless to prevent its ruthless suppression of anti-government protests. Both Moscow and Tehran are keen that Assad’s Alawite clan prevails, in order to safeguard their regional interests. The regime provides vital support for Iran’s Hizbollah militia in southern Lebanon, while the Russian navy values its access to the Syrian port of Tartus, its only supply base in the Mediterranean.
But last weekend’s defection of Manaf Tlas, a brigade commander in Syria’s Republican Guard who went to military college with Assad, suggests that the main threat to the regime’s survival could be internal, rather than external. Hence, having ignored Mr Annan’s entreaties to halt the violence, Damascus has suddenly renewed its interest in a peace dialogue. Yesterday, Mr Annan said that he had held “constructive” talks with Assad about reviving the ceasefire agreement, and is now flying to Iran to press his case with the ayatollahs. Doubtless, the envoy’s motives are honourable, but it seems likely that he is being played for a fool – that Assad is merely buying time to shore up his regime. More defections are key if this tragedy is to be brought to an end.
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Monday, July 09, 2012
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