Thursday, July 19, 2012

WORLD_ Assad’s endgame_ Telegraph view

Assad’s endgame

It is worrying that Barack Obama appears to think that any active engagement can wait until after the US election


Syrian Defence Minister General Daoud Rajha (left) and the brother-in-law of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, General Assef Shawkat Photo: AFP/Getty Images

By Telegraph View
8:17PM BST 18 Jul 2012 54
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The normally craven Syrian media was unusually fastidious in reporting the deaths yesterday of Dawoud Rajha, the defence minister, and Assef Shawkat, President Assad’s brother-in-law. Two of the government’s key figures, they were apparently killed by a bomb attack that breached the regime’s inner sanctum. However, suspicions were aroused as to the exact circumstances, since both men’s death or defection had previously been reported. Were they, in reality, the victims of an internal power struggle?

Whether this was an assassination or a conspiracy – and the difficulties faced by reporters in Syria render the truth hard to establish – the bombing sends a powerful signal that the Alawite clan’s days in power are running out. Attempts to suppress the rebellion by ratcheting up the brutality of the response have failed. Sunni members of the military are deserting; others will follow as Assad’s strength drains away. Unfortunately, the regime will not go without a fight: slaughter and repression are what it knows best.

Today, the United Nations will convene to discuss what the outside world can do to resolve the crisis; but even if Russia waives its objections to intervention, it is hard to see meaningful agreement being reached. In truth, no solution will really be possible while Assad and his cronies remain in control. The task for the West, and Syria’s neighbours, is not just to find some means of encouraging them to leave, but of keeping a lid on the chaos that could ensue.

During this process, Moscow will inevitably have a role to play – but so, too, will America. On that note, it is worrying that Barack Obama appears to think that any active engagement can wait until after the US election. The prospect of a worsening bloodbath makes it imperative that Washington does not resile from its obligations, simply to suit its own political timetable.


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