In Focus Economic intelligence on Iran and China is shaping Trump’s strategy
By Tom Rogan
Published April 23, 2026 6:00am ET | Updated April 23, 2026 10:19am ET
In Focus delivers deeper coverage of the political, cultural, and ideological issues shaping America. Published daily by senior writers and experts, these in-depth pieces go beyond the headlines to give readers the full picture. You can find our full list of In Focus pieces here.
U.S. intelligence community products are clearly driving President Donald Trump’s evolving strategy on how to end the war in Iran.
Trump wants the war to end in a manner that puts a durable lid on Iran’s nuclear program and sees Iran open the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East’s key energy chokepoint. To get there, Trump appears to be heavily relying on intelligence products generated by the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the State Department’s economic analysts.
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READ MORE: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/in_focus/4538212/economic-intelligence-iran-china-shaping-trump-strategy/
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The signaling is clear. China is telling Iran to cut a deal and open the strait. And that if it fails to do so, Tehran risks its isolation from China in favor of its Islamic nemesis, Saudi Arabia. China knows what Iran also knows: If Iran loses China as its economic link to Saudi Arabia, it has a huge problem. Russia’s depletion in the war in Ukraine makes it a far weaker Iranian partner than it was five years ago. And again, American global espionage means that Trump will be aware of any Chinese pressure on Iran that has not been made public. It is virtually certain that the Xi-bin Salman and Wang-Araghchi phone calls were intercepted, analyzed, and transcribed by the NSA, for example.
Trump will ultimately decide how and when this conflict ends. But when it comes to the intelligence reporting most relevant to the president’s decision-making, it’s no longer military intelligence. It’s the economy, stupid.
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