National Security
At the U.N., dread amid the jockeying over Syria’s future
President Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin toast during a Monday luncheon hosted during the U.N. General Assembly. (Amanda Voisard/AP)
By Karen DeYoung
September 29 at 8:45 PM
UNITED NATIONS — After endless debates and years of numbing news, there is a sense here that the world’s response to the Syrian war is approaching a turning point, a pivot from which it could descend into an even more hellish conflict or move toward a plan that might eventually stem the carnage and the extremist legions it has spawned.
Two new phenomena have jolted the status quo. The first is the streaming of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees into Western Europe. The second is Russia’s direct entry into the fray with the deployment to Syria of fighter planes, tanks and anti-aircraft systems, along with an offer to form a “broad coalition” against Islamic State militants.
At this week’s annual U.N. General Assembly, President Obama tried to maneuver both of these elements into the U.S. policy framework, with its simultaneous goals of decimating the militants and forcing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from office. But there are real concerns among allies and partners — and even some U.S. officials — that the already-chaotic situation risks spinning out of control.
European allies such as Britain, Germany and France, who were once prepared to follow the U.S. lead in Syria, are now expressing doubts about whether Assad’s departure must be an immediate part of a political settlement.
Sunni Arab monarchies, who have long urged more robust U.S. military engagement in Syria, have their own concerns — particularly if, as he pledged this week, Obama is willing to include both Russia and Iran, Assad’s other main backer, in his Syria calculations.
[Obama and Putin offer competing visions on Syria]
Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said Tuesday that he was confident that Obama is not capitulating to Russia or backtracking on Assad’s eventual departure. But he expressed doubt that any dialogue with Iran — welcomed by at least some of the European members of the anti-Islamic State coalition — could improve the situation.
Asked what Iran could do to be helpful, Jubeir said, “Get out of Syria. Simple.” As to Russia’s coalition offer, he called it “a non-starter.” Far from seeing the refugee crisis as a reason to back off, he said, his government considers the refugees, and the growth of the Islamic State, as the consequences of “not enough [military] action” against Assad over “the past four years.”
At a summit on countering extremism Tuesday morning that followed a 90-minute private meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin the previous evening, Obama repeated that “Syria . . . needs [a] new leader.” He also repeated his willingness to “work with all countries, including Russia and Iran . . . to find a political mechanism in which it is possible to begin a transition process.”
Obama listed coalition successes since the air campaign in Syria and Iraq began a year ago, including what he said was the reclaiming of a third of Iraqi territory once controlled by the militants as well as successful operations along the Syria-Turkey border by Syrian Kurds. Although the number of foreign fighters from around the world recruited by the Islamic State has grown, Obama said that many have been “prevented from reaching the battlefield.”
While the militants are largely self-funded, with illicit revenue from oil sales, taxes and extortion in occupied areas, the Treasury and State departments announced Tuesday that they were issuing sanctions on a total of 30 individuals and entities tied to the Islamic State, aiming to prevent that money from being used outside Syria to purchase arms or other supplies.
‘Stark differences’
Secretary of State John F. Kerry is spending much of his week in New York meeting repeatedly with top members of the anti-Islamic State coalition, juggling their sometimes conflicting concerns while explaining new strategies that Obama is considering — including direct U.S. weapons support for Syrian Kurdish and Arab opposition fighters.
In Washington, the White House has scheduled a high-level meeting for Friday on Syria and Iraq, where some of Obama’s advisers have called for expanded U.S. firepower and more forward involvement of U.S. troops in the Iraqi military’s fight against the Islamic State.
For his part, Putin agreed with Obama that there should be a negotiated political settlement in Syria. But he said that Assad’s removal would result in a situation similar to Iraq after the U.S. invasion, when the disintegration of the Iraqi army opened the door to al-Qaeda and other extremists.
White House officials put an optimistic spin on Putin’s declarations on Tuesday. “We welcome President Putin’s acknowledgment that a political transition of one form or another is necessary in Syria,” spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters aboard Air Force One while flying back to Washington with Obama. “We have our stark differences,” he said, but “just the acknowledgment” was a “positive development.”
Obama and Putin also agreed to establish a mechanism for further discussions. Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook said Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter had instructed his staff on Tuesday to launch communications with Moscow to ensure that its expanding military activities in Syria don’t come into conflict with American operations there.
Cook said the move was aimed primarily at avoiding confrontation over the Syrian skies, but he noted it might also address Russian and U.S. activities in Iraq, where Russian, Iranian, Syrian and Iraqi officials this week announced a new joint intelligence cell.
Military-to-military communications between Washington and Moscow were halted to protest Russia’s annexation of Crimea last year and aid to separatists in eastern Ukraine.
[Ukrainian president mocks Putin in front of United Nations]
No specifics
Russia says it wants to fight the Islamic State as well as bolster Assad. It charges that U.S.-led airstrikes in Syria are a violation of international law and that any such actions must be specifically mandated by the United Nations.
But the administration appeared no closer to discovering the specifics of what Putin plans to do with his military assets in Syria. “It wasn’t that kind of conversation,” said a senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity about the meeting with Obama.
In comments to the Russian press after the meeting, Putin said there was no chance that Russia would engage in ground operations in Syria.
But there are many ways in which the situation could sour, as ever-more fighters and equipment from ever-more countries pour into the Syria cauldron. The worse-case scenario, U.S. and coalition official said, would be a confrontation between U.S. and Russian aircraft over Syria. Next worse would be an attack on Russia’s military installations by anti-Assad opposition forces — some, but not all, of which are supported by the United States — or a Russian attack on them.
Cook said the U.S. military is continuing to recruit and vet potential participants for a train-and-equip program that has sent a handful of opposition fighters into Syria. The $500 million program has come under sharp criticism in recent weeks because of its low number of graduates as well as confirmed reports that some of its U.S-provided equipment has been turned over to al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, which is fighting against Assad.
As a review of the program continues, Cook said, “we have paused the actual movement of new recruits from Syria.”
Missy Ryan contributed to this report.
Karen DeYoung is associate editor and senior national security correspondent for the Washington Post.
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