Even as the president's troops take control of more of Homs, the Syrian people will go on trying to topple Assad
Comments (82)
Fares Chamseddine
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 29 February 2012 17.30 GMT
Article history
There are reports that more than half the Syrian district of Homs is now under the control of President Assad’s divisions. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
The fall of Baba Amr, when it happens, will be a serious blow to the morale of protesters throughout Syria and abroad. The Baba Amr district of Homs has come to symbolise the Syrian people's defiance against the dictator, and if President Bashar al-Assad manages to crush this centre of urban revolt he may feel emboldened to carry on wherever else mass protests threaten his rule.
In fact, Assad's army has been methodically crushing each urban centre of protest that has emerged over the past year. It began with a ruthless military campaign against the city of Deraa. At the time Syria's artists and actors still had the self-confidence to organise such efforts as "Milk for Deraa" and to call for an end to the armed campaign.
In those days there was still a naive hope that Assad was a reasonable man who could be appealed to. Of course, those days are long gone and we saw last summer how, during Ramadan, Assad's forces began shelling the city of Hama for daring to field demonstrations of hundreds of thousands of people.
Over the course of an entire month, Hama was subjected to a systematic campaign of brutal repression. The result is we hardly see any demonstrations from that city any more; certainly none that are near the size of the early demonstrations. Rastan, Latakia, and Deir al-Zour, all shared the same fate, each in their own way, but it is Homs that has remained defiant, and it is Homs has been a thorn in Assad's side throughout the uprising.
Soon, this will no longer be the case. At the time of writing there are reports that more than half the district is now under the control of Assad's divisions, who are conducting door-to-door searches. It would have been naive to expect that the elements of the Free Syrian Army, and any other local militias, would have been able to hold out against Assad indefinitely, but this is not the end of the revolution.
Assad's regime is being balanced precariously like a table with wobbly legs. One leg is the security situation, and it is clear that his forces are stretched and unable to impose his will throughout. The second leg is domestic unrest, and again his secret police have been unable to prevent unrest from happening, even in Aleppo and Damascus.
Only two weeks ago a funeral procession in the heart of Damascus escalated into a massive demonstration. This showed that, at the first sign of Assad's grip weakening, there is a strong chance that we can see similar protests in future.
The third leg is the media, and Assad is also desperately failing on that front. With journalists routinely crossing Syria's porous borders to report from trouble spots, he cannot impose the kind of media blackout that his father took for granted during the Hama massacre in 1982. The tragic deaths of Marie Colvin and Remi Ochlik are a poignant reminder of that.
The final leg is international intervention, whether diplomatic or otherwise – and this is the only front where Assad has proved resilient. The backing of Russia and China has thwarted every attempt at the UN security council to condemn his regime, and his regime has powerful domestic allies with Iran and Hezbollah.
Regardless, it appears that a strong consensus is meticulously being built up internationally – which is building pressure upon his regime in a way that no ally could stop for ever. The United States and France are pushing for a security council resolution demanding humanitarian access to areas in Syria, something over which China and Russia would find it difficult to justify a veto.
Ultimately, the Syrian people did not wait for the international community before starting their protests, and they chose to topple the regime knowing full well that a fate similar to that of Hama in 1982 could befall them. It is this determination, more than geopolitical considerations and intrigue, that will topple Assad, whether this year or in 10 years to come.
Assad can keep trying to prop up the individual legs that hold up his regime, but at some point he won't be able to keep up and then it will all come crumbling down. Whether he ends up in the Hague or a morgue, Assad will have nobody to blame but himself for the fate which befalls him.
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Comments
82 comments, displaying
Strummered
29 February 2012 5:41PM
After all that Assad and his cronies have done, they'll be lucky if they're only hung upside down with piano wire - Violent regimes tend to have a violent endgame.
GuyFawkesIsInnocent
29 February 2012 5:51PM
It's a complicated situation with everybody trying to pull the rug their way.
Of course Syria would be better off without Assad. But no one wants to see Syria degenerate into something resembling the current Libyan fiasco.
If someone is going to remove Assad, it must be the Syrian people. Not the US, Saudi, Russia, Iran, or anyone else.
JanBurton
29 February 2012 5:56PM
Much has been said of the determination and dedication of protestors and rebels in the face of Assad's crackdown.
But the same can be said for the regime itself. Alawites and Christians are terrified of what awaits them should the Sunnis take control - and for good reason.
Plus many Syrias - including Sunnis - are simply scared of the chaos that is probably inevitable if the regime falls. They've seen civil war up close in Lebanon and then in Iraq, all the whole knowing that their own country contains the same sectarian time-bomb as their neighbours.
Idealy, there would be a gradual, peaceful transition to democratic (majority) rule, but that still leaves the minorities scared of the Islamists who would likely win an open vote.
So either way, this story isn't likely to have a happy ending.
JanBurton
29 February 2012 6:05PM
Response to GuyFawkesIsInnocent, 29 February 2012 5:51PM
Of course Syria would be better off without Assad. But no one wants to see Syria degenerate into something resembling the current Libyan fiasco.
All things considered, Libya is trudging along relatively well.
There are still gunmen on the streets, but civil society hasn't disintegrated like it did in Iraq.
dirkbruere
29 February 2012 6:08PM
Like Stalin was supposed to have said, once you start shooting people you cannot stop.
TheotherWay
29 February 2012 6:13PM
No reasonable person can condone what President Assad is doing let alone support it. He is a vile blood thirsty tyrant who's true destiny would be the similar ro that of Libya's Gadaffi.
But here in lies the problem. Mr Assad is not merely trying to safeguard his "family business" but is also trying to save his skin but has no where to hide. With the West's inability to intervene militarily in Syria and the complications of multiplicity of religious/ ethnic group that forms the patch work quilt that is Syria there is no easy solution.
In this situation one may have to hold one's nose and think of the least bad option. Certainly it sticks in my throat to even suggest it and that is where we are.
It may be that the Syrian ruling clique ought to be given an option where continuing violence would have a greater cost to them and their families than to abandon violence. Offering a conditional refuge for the clique in exchange for the clique abandoning all violence and leaving their ill gotten gains in exchange for a peaceful refuge- widely dispersed to scatter the clique may be the answer.
I take no comfort or pride in suggesting that. It is against all my instincts but given the situation children, women and men face in that sorry country we continue to hear about that is perhaps the least bad solution. We cannot try to prove a point at the expense of the increasing number of victims and the blood that flows.
steviet69
29 February 2012 6:16PM
Syria's uprising is being crushed but Assad cannot escape his fate
He seems to be doing pretty well so far.....
miller01
29 February 2012 6:26PM
I know the world powers do not want to see this happen, but the whole middle east maps want re-drawing. A series of countries for the Kurds, Sunni ,Shiites, Druze, Alawites, Christians, Jews & Palestinians need to be created. All from Eastern Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Israel & Saudi Arabia. When the western powers dismantled the Ottoman Empire to more or less what we have now and then invited all the Jews from around Europe into Palestine and left the Armenians to there own fate in North Eastern Turkey. Has left resentment of the west and hatred against the winners out of the mess. If twenty small countries ruled by the people and the kin, aka what happened in Yugoslavia, eventually people start to get along with there neighbours and put the past behind them. This of course won't ever happen. The Saudi's, Iranians and Turks wouldn't ever let it be. If only Wilson Woodrows vision post WW1 had happened the middle east and the whole world would be a better place. Then we could start dismantling the Russian Caucasus. Signed Dreamer!
bufothesecond
29 February 2012 6:27PM
it is difficult to believe that this situation is not tied in to a whole range of other factors, most of which remain hidden and undiscussed.
zionysus
29 February 2012 6:29PM
beat the drum, Assad the evil doer, he must be destroyed...
don't worry, it's coming, but it'll be a side show by comparison to what's lined up for Iran, and all their evil doers.
worried
29 February 2012 6:32PM
OK so the first commenters are all onside and totally terminally ignorant.
Did I say ignorant ? Well, let's imagine some of them have some knowledge and a brain and education that allows them to think, then they should stand up and say that they are manufacturing something and for what or for whom .
Otherwise they are intellectually lazy, downright dangerous if they have any access to the levers of power.
Does lifting the lid on NoW blind you all to the craven, warmongering dishonesty of the rest of the press?
KravMaga
29 February 2012 6:32PM
Whether he ends up in the Hague or a morgue, Assad will have nobody to blame but himself for the fate which befalls him.
Agreed. Hopefully this will happen very soon.
Let's just keep western troops out of this mess. Let ths Syrian people take care of him.
Clunie
29 February 2012 6:35PM
Response to miller01, 29 February 2012 6:26PM
I know the world powers do not want to see this happen, but the whole middle east maps want re-drawing.
That's how the whole disaster got started well over a century ago, with Britain, France et al carving up the Middle East and Africa and blithely ''distributing'' nations as though they didn't belong to their peoples. Maybe it's time for a change from that disastrous policy. Perhaps it's even time that external powers - both Western and Eastern - butted out and let the people of the Middle East and Africa be free to run their own nations as they wish and trade their resources as they wish without carving them up and installing/maintaining and arming satrap dictators for as long as they're expedient. I can't see any of the superpowers going for it, but I'm a dreamer too.
GuyFawkesIsInnocent
29 February 2012 6:40PM
Response to worried, 29 February 2012 6:32PM
Personally, I don't feel like I'm "manufacturing" anything. I'm just giving my opinion.
But then if you think you can offer a better solution to this mess, then by all means lets hear it!
Clunie
29 February 2012 6:41PM
Response to worried, 29 February 2012 6:32PM
OK so the first commenters are all onside and totally terminally ignorant.
Did I say ignorant ? Well, let's imagine some of them have some knowledge and a brain and education that allows them to think, then they should stand up and say that they are manufacturing something and for what or for whom .
Otherwise they are intellectually lazy, downright dangerous if they have any access to the levers of power.
Does lifting the lid on NoW blind you all to the craven, warmongering dishonesty of the rest of the press?
Maybe you'll share your own great insight with us. Assad is a murderous dictator who's slaughtering people right now in an attempt to maintain power. He's no ''better'' than the Western backed dictators like Pinochet or Suharto who were also overthrown by the people of those countries (and didn't kill as many), he's just one more from the same rotten, stinking, murderous mould. Whether they are backed by the Eastern or Western superpowers is irrelevant, they are murderous totalitarian shits who rule by fear.
j137
29 February 2012 6:46PM
Many on Cif are not happy when the West intervenes to aid rebels. I can understand that. But at the same time, they are not happy when the West does not intervene and the rebels are left to fend for themselves. Either way, it's an imperialist conspiracy.
The Guardian for them should be short for 'guardian of the status quo...'
I'm sorry to break it to you, but authoritarian regimes, no matter how many sewers or schools they build, are unsustainable. They will all fall eventually.
Likewise, a state in which an ethnic or religious minority controls all of the major levers of power, is unsustainable. It's fall might involve the West, but the West won't be the root cause.
sugarcoatedsnack
29 February 2012 6:50PM
Response to Clunie, 29 February 2012 6:35PM
but I'm a dreamer too.
Phew!
rizzzzlas
29 February 2012 6:54PM
I live in Glasgow. Where is my local resistance group ? Where can I get a gun ? Will the corporate media support armed resistance against the British government ?
j137
29 February 2012 6:57PM
Response to worried, 29 February 2012 6:32PM
Well, let's imagine some of them have some knowledge and a brain and education that allows them to think, then they should stand up and say that they are manufacturing something and for what or for whom .
Okay, you've got me. I work for the Illuminati and we are trying to usher in the New World Order based on the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. How did you find me out?
spectreovereurope
29 February 2012 7:01PM
Clunie
He's no ''better'' than the Western backed dictators like Pinochet or Suharto who were also overthrown by the people of those countries (and didn't kill as many),
In fact neither Pinochet or Suharto were overthrown by the people of their countries. On another thread I noticed you claiming 28 protestors were killed on Bloody Sunday and on yet another thread something about Omar Mukhtar rising up against the French. I'm curious to know where you're sourcing your (dis)information.
Clunie
29 February 2012 7:05PM
Response to rizzzzlas, 29 February 2012 6:54PM
I live in Glasgow. Where is my local resistance group ? Where can I get a gun ? Will the corporate media support armed resistance against the British government ?
Yah Tarquin, we are oppressed just like the Syrian people. I find it's best to avoid talking about the regime in public or to neighbours because the plainclothes mukhabarat are always on the lookout and ready to take you away if you dare to speak negatively about them. And the phone tapping - well you know about that. Not to mention our inability to speak out online for fear of our IP address being traced - I wouldn't dare call Dave a clueless posh cunt online because y'know, we are in a totalitarian state and face horrific danger for speaking out - that's why the CIA sent prisoners here to be tortured. Oops, no it doesn't. I trust you also opposed the overthrow of Pinochet, Suharto and the Khmer Rouge btw. Terrible little people fighting to overthrow dictators intent on killing them ghastly. And what do those Syrians know about suffering? Haven't they seen the English rioters being roughed up? That's true totalitarianism. Right on, yah?
spectreovereurope
29 February 2012 7:12PM
Clunie
Self-awareness never was your strong point, eh?:)
And history is clearly not your strong point.
rizzzzlas
29 February 2012 7:16PM
Response to Clunie, 29 February 2012 7:05PM
East Enders is starting soon.
spectreovereurope
29 February 2012 7:24PM
rizzzzlas
Eastenders isn't on Wednesdays.
stickie
29 February 2012 7:34PM
The West is intent on dismantling the Syrian state just like it did in Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya. To this end it arms and supports the agents of ethnic and religious strife, threatens, isolates and funds an international media campaign against the Syrian government. All of which is relentless and non-negotiable.
The West is well aware of the high casualties of the coming religious slaughter, that the least likely longterm outcome is a Jeffersonian democracy and the most likely the chaotic and brutal rule of religious maniacs. But the West does not really care about that.
worried
29 February 2012 7:35PM
j137
Okay, you've got me. I work for the Illuminati and we are trying to usher in the New World Order based on the Protocols of the Elders of Zion. How did you find me out?
"
No you don't.
_______________
What do you think ?
Các anh chị nghĩ thế nào, có ý kiến- phê bình gì qua bài viết "Syria's uprising is being crushed but Assad cannot escape his fate" và 25 ý kiến- phê bình từ "82 Comments" của đọc giả ?
Và các anh chị nghĩ gì qua nhận xét rõ ràng của tác giả qua đoạn
"Ultimately, the Syrian people did not wait for the international community before starting their protests, and they chose to topple the regime knowing full well that a fate similar to that of Hama in 1982 could befall them. It is this determination, more than geopolitical considerations and intrigue, that will topple Assad, whether this year or in 10 years to come." ?
Dù bị đàn áp, bị GIẾT, bị TÀN SÁT dã man, người dân Syria vẫn tiếp tục chiến đấu đơn độc cho đến ngày hôm nay . TẠI SAO ???
Người dân Syria vẫn tiếp tục bị ác quỷ Assad GIẾT không nương tay, không một sự giúp đỡ thiết thực nào, TẠI SAO ???
Còn nữa, những người dân VN BỊ MẤT NƯỚC vào tay bè lũ Việt gian phản quốc CƯỚP NƯỚC DIỆT CHỦNG BÁN NƯỚC ĐỘC tài ĐỘC đảng cộng sản VN, HỌC thêm bài học gì qua Cách Mạng LẬT ĐỔ cầm quyền độc tài ở Bắc Phi và Trung Đông, HỌC được gì thêm qua người dân Syria, có cần PHẢI TẨY RỬA tư tưởng vọng ngoại, dựa hơi dựa hám ngoại bang, chờ đợi đèn xanh đèn vàng trong Công Cuộc Tranh Đấu GIÀNH LẠI giang sơn Việt đã và đang bị lũ súc sinh Việt cộng BÁN ĐỨNG cho giặc tàu, đã và đang bị lũ súc sinh cộng sản VN hủy diệt ???
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Kính chúc Sức Khỏe Quý Anh Chị .
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