19 March 2012
ABC
32 Comments
Rodger Shanahan
The first anniversary of the Syrian uprising has not given those committed to the overthrow of the Assad regime much to celebrate.
Syria's fractious political opposition suffered more resignations this week with threats of more to come.
Little wonder that, despite many governments calling for Bashar Assad to step down, none have legitimised the Syrian opposition by offering it as an alternative government. This is because it is in no fit state to govern itself, let alone a country as complex as Syria.
The problem for those advocating military action, either indirect or direct, is that there are few if any good options. The Free Syrian Army (FSA) is nearly exclusively a Sunni construct, and as the US commander of Central Command has pointed out, the default policy position is to 'do no harm'.
Arming the FSA with more sophisticated weapons may assist them in their conflict with the regime forces, but with little central control there is nothing to stop these same weapons being used against pro-regime civilians later, or perhaps of being passed on to radical Salafist groups in the future. No Western government at least is keen for this to occur.
At the same time, without such weapons (or more advanced training) their ability to better the Syrian army is limited. The result appears to be a Syrian policy of fixing FSA elements in towns and then attempting to destroy them. Results in both Homs and Idlib show that this tactic is working. Naturally the FSA claims that their forces have withdrawn, rather than being defeated. The problem with too many withdrawals though, is that support amongst the uncommitted middle-class is likely to swing back to those who they see as more likely to win - in this case the government.
Other guerrilla groups in the past have suffered early defeats only to use these defeats as lessons as they have regrouped, rearmed and gone on the offensive again, this time more effectively.
In the case of the FSA though, this appears on the face of it unlikely unless they are provided with significant external assistance. Neither the FSA nor the political leadership are united, there is no unifying figure around which they can coalesce, no natural safe haven from which they can launch operations, and their lack of advanced weapons or any air support means that they cannot build the critical mass necessary to seize and hold ground against the Syrian military. US intelligence assessments paint a bleak picture of the FSA capabilities, so there is little point in backing rebels whose strategic endstate is not necessarily in sympathy with those of the West, and who don't pose a serious military threat to the regime.
If political and diplomatic pressure is difficult to maintain because of a lack of an alternative, and military pressure is waning as the outgunned FSA is defeated on the ground, could the outside world countenance dealing with a Ba'thist regime that undertook some cosmetic changes, engaged in dialogue with the opposition but retained Bashar Assad as its head? Pride is one thing, but for some countries, economic realities may make this course of action acceptable. Jordan's King Abdullah was the first Arab leader to call for Assad to step down, and tribal connections across the border around Dera'a mean that he would need to placate some of his subjects, but when 70 per cent of your exports (most of which are perishable) normally pass through Syria on their way to Europe stability may be preferable to principle.
Other Arab countries may find it more difficult to countenance dealing with an Assad-led Syria, but the benefit of autocratic rule is that you can change policy direction quickly. In Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah is elderly and, even if he cannot reverse his stance on Syria, a successor could easily re-orient policy. As far as the smaller Gulf states are concerned, Damascus would be little concerned about their animosity. The Syrian government is hurting economically, and continued sanctions will continue to bite deeply. But if Assad's regime can face down a rebellion as serious as the one it faces at the moment, countries such as Russia, Iran and Iraq will be much less inclined to hedge their bets and are more likely to underwrite a key strategic partner whose grip on power will be reinforced. The West will continue to keep Damascus at arm's length, but their own electoral cycles will provide opportunities for Syria to come in from the cold at some stage down the track.
The Syrian uprising is not over by any means, but neither is the fall of Assad the given that many assumed a few months ago. One thing that the Assad regime learnt from the events in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Yemen is that if you lose the military you lose power. And while there have been defections from the Syrian military, they have been from the periphery rather than the core.
Unless a unifying opposition figure emerges and the Free Syrian Army becomes an army, international and regional foreign policy experts may have to start reconciling themselves with dealing with an Assad regime for years to come.
Dr Rodger Shanahan was the Chief of Army Visiting Fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy and is now a non-resident Fellow at the Lowy Institute of International Policy. View his full profile here.
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32 COMMENTS
Alex C :
19 Mar 2012 4:53:01pm
Part 3: Many analysts concede that military aggression against Iran (again using the strategy of 'hidden WMD program' accusations to justify military aggression) and/or Syria (under a R2P pretext, despite involvement in the covert engineering of a civil war aimed to achieve regime change) will likely result in a regional Middle Eastern war (recognising recent strategic agreements). The Obama administration is already preparing/arming various countries for such a regional war. There is also a high probability that this conflict will spread to the Caucasus as Azerbaijan and Georgia are likely to be drawn into this war as these countries are being prepared to stage U.S./NATO attacks against Iran. This would involve CSTO members against NATO aligned countries. Significantly, Russia is preparing to respond to such a situation.
"Russia has responded to the standoff by announcing military exercises in the North and South Caucasus that are unprecedented in scale. While Russia regularly runs military drills in the North Caucasus, the Kavkaz-2012 maneuvers will also involve Russian units in Armenia and the Georgian breakaway republic of Abkhazia........ Russian officials have often warned that foreign intervention in either Syria or Iran could lead to a wider conflict in the region............the confluence of the regional events could lead to a potentially explosive situation" (Echoes of war across the South Caucasus
By Nicholas Clayton, AsiaTimes, Feb 2, 2012)
Rodger, it is unfortunate that you are oblivious to what is actually occurring but do not worry, these events are not likely to last years. With the recognition that the Middle East is close to the situation of a regional war, war is dangerously close on the Korean peninsula, that numerous conflicts are spreading throughout Africa, the U.S./NATO is expanding military alliances and building up military capabilities/infrastructure around Russia and China (dangerously increasing the military encirclement of Russia and China with military bases, anti-missile architecture and the interoperability of military forces), the U.S. armament of Taiwan (against China), the U.S. armament of the Philippines (in preparation for possible conflict with China over the South China Sea) and the covert support of separatist movements in numerous Chinese regions, only a fool would not understand what is occurring but unfortunately all probably soon will. The elements of a far larger conflict are assembled. Such a conflict will likely spread beyond the control of any one participant. Now we need only wait for a spark to ignite it. (Refer to part 4)
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Alex C :
19 Mar 2012 4:50:52pm
Part 2: "Western nations are illicitly providing arms to Syria's opposition to force the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad, Russia's top diplomat said Monday.....Nobody is commenting on it and no one is admitting it, but the facts are impossible to contradict: weapons are being smuggled into Syria from Turkey and Iraq,' said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov......Armed extremists are using peaceful demonstrations to provoke Syrian government violence,' [Lavrov] (Moscow accuses West of arming Syrian opposition, Deutsche Presse-Agentur ans, November 14, 2011)
It would be foolish to not consider or dismiss the strategic situation of Russia and China concerning developments or actions in both Syria and for that matter Iran. External hostile actions against Syria and Iran would also be hostile actions against the commercial interests and strategic situation of Russia and China. The covert armament, training and logistical support of armed groups seeking to achieve regime change in Syria can only be interpreted by Russia and China as hostile strategic actions. But then the targeting of successive strategic opponents and the sequence of expanding military conflicts is part of a larger picture that many do not recognise. (Refer to part 3)
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Doug Quixote :
19 Mar 2012 4:42:23pm
The regime may well survive, once it has crushed the opposition. Said opposition plead for intervention, but Russia and China will probably continue to block any such moves.
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christoph :
19 Mar 2012 3:42:33pm
What is happening in Syria is almost a carbon copy of what happened in Libya ie western propaganda so disgusting its almost laughable. I find it difficult how people can fall for it. General Wesley Clark, stated a few years ago that the pentagon had targeted Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia and Sudan for “regime change” as part of their take over of the middle east. Already some Al Jazeera journalists have resigned because of the biased reporting that has been occurring on that network. Just as in Libya the western press is a puppet for the war mongers in Washington, Tel Aviv and London.
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Feet Slipper :
19 Mar 2012 4:22:12pm
I think that you have gne a little overboard there christoph.
They certainly need their regimes changed - as do any that are not democracies. However, "take over", is just about the most ludicrous phrase on the blogs today.
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M C :
19 Mar 2012 2:41:31pm
Perhaps we are not looking at another real interest group. I do wonder about Israel. Israel fermented a war in 1967 to underpin a land grab or rather a water grab of Syrian territory. Israel has now annexed this land illegally and a democratic free Syria might make Israel's periodic rampages into the Lebanon and surrounds harder to propaganda.
Now there is no question that the USA always does protect whatever colonial expansion Israel undertakes but perhaps a from the US people disliked Syrian dictatorship suites their requirements better. If the USA and the Western Allies were to actually interfere the resulting regime change might not suite Israel's long term long term regional ambitions at all. That is probably a very good reason for Israel to keep the USA on a leash?
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R.Ambrose Raven :
19 Mar 2012 2:23:18pm
So typical of such commentary – a learned but selective exposition of power politics in which the interests of the people barely appear. As is so often the case in such writings (and regarding Europe’s difficulties as well) the citizens, the 99% who actually form these nations, are either completely ignored or regarded as an annoyance. Perhaps we could try and do better?
Such views evade not only the long history of exploitative Western colonialism and neo-colonialism in the Middle East but also the unsatisfactory results of NATO’s overthrow of the Libyan government in favour of al-Qaeda related Islamists.
From 2006, Assad included a wide range of social and economic changes in the 10th five-year plan, to complete the transition from a socialist to a "social market" economy – encouraging (foreign) investment (despite the obvious tension of the Arab-Zionist conflict), enhancing 'free' trade (despite such “agreements” always favouring the bigger participant, such as Turkey ), liberalising prices (encouraging inequality) and supporting the casualties of "reform" with what revenue remains after transnational plunder. There were also said to be policy objectives to tackle human rights issues, regional development and social justice, as well as greater openness.
However, little is reported to have improved for the average Syrian. One reason is institutionalised corruption – as we should by now expect whenever the phrase "social market" appears.
It seems that 'Madame Clinton', as many Syrians reportedly call her, did not make time to read the report by the Head of the Arab League Observer Mission that was deployed throughout Syria's provinces.
Nor did our media of course, since the script had already been set. Even now, the mainstream media (ABC newscaff included) has not yet adjusted its theme of state-sponsored killing of civilians despite now - frequently in the same article! - carrying reports of armed resistance.
Again as in Libya, the U.S. and the West are supporting exactly the Islamists it so frequently describes as the enemy in the War on Terror. Muslim Brotherhood staged the bloody uprisings of the 80's and even provided some of the logistics for the 11th of September attacks, as well as for Atta in Hamburg and the Yarkas cell in Spain.
Whether ordinary Syrians can now put food on the table is not of the slightest interest to the warmongers, nor does such a thought generally appear in cyberspace discussions. Perhaps we could also suggest mechanisms that fairly share the food, water and wealth amongst all the governments of the region, and actually enforce an honesty and integrity in production and distribution that our ruling class always opposes here?
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rudy :
19 Mar 2012 2:06:31pm
I don't know much about Syria but I'm guessing it has no oil. How else to explain Western willingness to bomb Gaddafi out of power in Libya but refusal to assist Syrian rebels (or ar least hiding behind the convenient Russian and Chinese UN veto)?
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Help101 :
19 Mar 2012 3:18:45pm
Something about damned if they do and damned if they don't.
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sinbad :
19 Mar 2012 4:00:28pm
Gaddafi threatened the US dollar by selling oil in all manner of currencies and proposing a Gold coin for the whole of Africa. The US would simply not allow a challenge to the Green back. Syria has stuck to US dollars in its trade so the US does not consider it a threat. The naughty boys club consisted of Iraq Libya and Iran. Two down one to go.
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Unbeliever :
19 Mar 2012 1:49:38pm
I'm not sure what everyone is concerned about in Syria.
It's not like the civilian population is in any danger... well unless you are a mother with a child that is.
But what does it matter if it is someone elses mum/wife/daughter/son?
"oh but dear we might be critised by some people if we lift a finger to help those people.... ssshhhh... best we just be quiet".
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Tom :
19 Mar 2012 4:20:08pm
so when are you heading over?
so you sit behind a keyboard and dont help, criticizing others behind a keyboard who arent helping.
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Ummm :
19 Mar 2012 1:41:28pm
I don't know a great deal about the Middle East and what would be the best outcome, but what I find disturbing is that Russia and China refuse to assist in finding a better solution to all the violence. To me it suggests that the would, and probably are, using the same brutal methods as Assad to repress opposition in their own countries. Why is no-one concerned about this?
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dubious the third :
19 Mar 2012 2:06:43pm
Ummm err
perhaps if the US and NATO had made the resolution for a No Fly Zone over Libya, a no fly zone, then Russia and China would be more willing to trust the motives again this time.
But like Libya, the Syrian regime is supported by the majority of citizens, or doesn't this matter?
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Help101 :
19 Mar 2012 3:17:03pm
"But like Libya, the Syrian regime is supported by the majority of citizens, or doesn't this matter?"
Ask anyone on a torture rack "do you support the regime" and I guess most will say 'yes'.
I take it you missed the news last week about what happens to women and children who happen to be around men who don't support the regime, for your information it involved brutal and sadistic executions with knives for the "viewing pleasure" of the mums ... and thats what the children got.
Nice mob you're supporting there dibious....
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dubious the third :
19 Mar 2012 3:51:36pm
Yes I saw that footage, and it gave me cause to wonder, so I gave it the "who benefits?" test.
a. there would be no benefit to the Assad regime to allow such treatment,wot with mobile phone technology these days,it would get out to the west, like previous mobile phone coverage had
b.for those seeking regime change, such footage of atrocities being made attributable to the Assad regime is like manna from heaven.
So equally Help 101, how could you support such debauchery?
As it turns out, I don't support Assad too much, and was pleased that he's been working to democratise the Constitution. More pressure to go further with such reforms seems like a good idea, and it doesn't need to kill anyone.
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Help101 :
19 Mar 2012 4:16:15pm
Ah the old "oh i couldn't bare it if the people I support did that type of bad stuff, so i'll just accuse others of doing it despite the obvious evidence" routine.
LOL I must take a long time to 'democratise the constitution', heck how long have assad (and his dad) been in power for?
How do you spell quisling?
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JoeBloggs :
19 Mar 2012 4:28:22pm
Dubious did you take a moment to think through all the options when considering your "who benefits" test.
Did it not occur to you that one of the key ways to control a population is to use fear, and fear of death and pain in particular. It is a method often used by regimes to ensure the population is motivated to cease all resistance to the regime.
Could it be that the atrocity leaked (one of many leaked) was simply a method of highlighting what may happen to the families of those who continue their struggle against the regime?
Would it benefit the regime to release this information? would it suit their agenda? would it instill fear in the population?
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David Ferstat :
19 Mar 2012 2:13:48pm
Why do you think that no-one is concerned with this?
The Chinese and Russian oppression of their own citizenry is long established, and well-recognised.
Unlike Syria, it's far harder to find out what's actually going on (in China, at least) and, also unlike Syria, both countries are so large that there is absolutely no way to compel the respective governments to change course.
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Feet Slipper :
19 Mar 2012 3:36:05pm
But the Russians, 'are' assisting. They are supplying the weaponry to Bashar and Maher al-Assad. Maher is in charge of the Secret police, The Republican Guard and the elite armoured division. He is the second most powerful man and a ruthless exterminator of any opposition. His wife's family is Sunni, and he has a network of businesses outside of Syria - including Lebonan and Dubai.
Human rights groups have video evidence of some of his escapades, which include dismembered bodies.
'That' is the profile of the man who is running the violence against the civilians.
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Budovski :
19 Mar 2012 4:41:12pm
"Russia and China refuse to assist in finding a better solution to all the violence"
They are the only countries that are proposing solutions that DO NOT involve violence..
NATO, US, Australia, GCC are all running around training Islamic extremists and fermenting violence.
The Syrian revolution failed because it was hijacked by Salafists who resorted almost immediately to wide spread terrorism and intimidation. Now they have lost the war and we are on the losing side.
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the yank :
19 Mar 2012 1:30:47pm
Interesting article thanks.
It is hard to see what will happen in the long term in Syria but maybe Iran and how they handled their revolt is an example.
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Snufkin :
19 Mar 2012 1:20:51pm
Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Power is also addictive as we can see from Australian political history, where so many have had to be forcibly extricated, virtually with a pinch bar, by members of their own party.
I feel sorry for the poor people of Syria, and am not very optimistic about whatever government they will eventually have to try to live with.
Another point is that if you are a dictator, and know you will be held accountable for your actions in a country with rather harsh penalties by Western standards, why would you opt to go voluntarily?
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Matt :
19 Mar 2012 1:17:16pm
They kicked him out the AL mate, they backed the opposition. Re-orient not so easy. I survived it is all cool, mate look at the butchery. It is like the mafia "forget about it". He already put a hit out on Jumblatt so much for the STL stopping assassinations. I would suggest the strategy now is no longer to overthrow him but not to let him get back on his feet. That they can probably achieve. Faisal walks out on the US, the King slams down the phone on Medvedev. They are upset and it is not over civilians. Obama doesn't care he will drink the strategic reserves dry, but at that price he will probably sell it to the PRC.
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paradise :
19 Mar 2012 1:13:23pm
The USA doesn't know what to do, Israel waits on that, assorted Arab regimes and sub groups don't know what to do, how to unite, what to fight for..? So, Syria will bleed on like a primitive animal, hoping to recover from wounds, but facing possible death. While all parties, including Russia, could use and abuse Syria in some way, it remains that Syria is a lead weight for nearly everyone to imagine carrying. The poor citizens...
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DocMercury :
19 Mar 2012 12:57:53pm
I thought that Middle-East royalty was suffering the same limited gene pool fate as their camels?
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Help101 :
19 Mar 2012 3:12:54pm
I thought they had the same gene pool?
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ken :
19 Mar 2012 12:57:52pm
Assad and Saud are dead - they just don't realise it yet.
What replaces them will, probably, in the sort term, be almost as bad. But the world trend is clearly towards responsible government
At the same time, mature responsible governments in the US, UK and Oz are not performing well - extreme polarisation and poor communication by the current government with the electorate.
But still better than all the alternatives.
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Unbeliever :
19 Mar 2012 1:46:31pm
"It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried."
Sir Winston Churchill.
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idlib Imondas :
19 Mar 2012 2:08:21pm
The author of this article is completely wrong. so far a quarter of the Syrian army has defected. that equals approximately 60,000 troops, this is according to Turkish intelligence. the only truly loyal division of the army Assad has is the 4th division. The major powers know exactly what would happen if they were to create safe havens in Syria. whole divisions would defect. This is absolutely true. what this author should writing about is why world powers continue to NOT act. As Syria is becoming more and more unstable every day. Bashar is going to destroy Syria to remain in power. I think the Americans are going to wait until Syria destroys itself sufficiently so that any new democratic Syria won't ask for the golan heights back, won't support the Palestinian right to freedom from occupation. And will be too weak to do anything about it.
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Jan1st :
19 Mar 2012 3:10:51pm
idlib Imondas:
Your first points are spot on. The biggest problem with the major powers' intervention is that they are preoccupied with elections in their home countries.
Secondly the public in the US and NATO countries are becoming anti involvement, due to the losses of life for what seems to be little in the way of successful outcomes. Iraq is a basket case still, would Syria be any different? Perhaps the best we can hope for is Assad to resign and a new government act in holding mode until the populace can choose a new direction. I won't hold my breath.
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Help101 :
19 Mar 2012 3:12:31pm
A good plan then?
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