OPINION_ China’s Economy Faces a Double Blow: Iran Conflict and Structural Weakness ( Antonio Graceffo - THE EPOCH TIMES )

THE EPOCH TIMES

China’s Economy Faces a Double Blow: Iran Conflict and Structural Weakness

A woman shops for vegetables at a supermarket in Beijing on May 11, 2026. Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images

Antonio Graceffo
7/11/2026|Updated: 7/12/2026

Commentary

The CCP set its 2026 annual economic growth target at 4.5 to 5 percent, its lowest since it began publishing annual targets in the early 1990s. Analysts at the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission believe that, given current trends, China will fall short of even this relatively modest goal.

Their pessimistic outlook is based on two concurrent but distinct problems. The first is an external supply shock caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict. The second is a domestic structural downturn that predates the conflict by several years.

Retail sales growth has decelerated in three consecutive reporting periods. Year-on-year growth peaked at 2.8 percent in the January-to-February period, then slowed to 1.7 percent in March, 0.2 percent in April, and...

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READ MORE: https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/chinas-economy-faces-a-double-blow-iran-conflict-and-structural-weakness-6060158?ea_src=frontpage&ea_med=section-1

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