OPINION
Indonesia Can Help Rein In China's Hegemony
By Partha Chakraborty
Thursday, 21 May 2026 01:53 PM EDT
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Recently, President Donald Trump returned from his trip to Beijing.
Predictably, the parlor games are in full swing as to who won.
All that red carpet China laid out for the U.S. president got them little.
No, Trump didn't sell out" Taiwan for a few Boeing aircraft more.
No, heddin't not lecture them on human rights abuses.
Our nation's 47th commander in chief was courteous and respectful, careful not to fight two fires with loose lips, each fire thousands of miles away, at a time the U.S. audience is ambivalent with a just-war in Iran.
President Xi Jinping, however, stuck to China's script of no-concessions on Taiwan
Reiterating that the "Taiwan Question" is the most important issue in China's relationship with the U.S., Jinping claimed that, "'Taiwan Independence' and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water," according to a readout from China's Foreign Ministry.
Western analysts point to growing consensus inside China that a "cost-benefit-analysis" will turn in China’s favor in the next five years. At the upcoming birth centenary "national rejuvenation" is said to warrant a forceful reintegration.
The U.S. approach towards Taiwan has been a conundrum, by design.
Successive U.S. administrations adhered to a stance that keeps both sides guessing, preventing Taiwan from declaring independence unilaterally, keeping China guessing if an invasion would escalate into an armed conflict with the U.S., and most importantly, giving the U.S. flexibility in the absence of a defined red-line.
So far, it works for Taiwan.
Taiwan is a thriving economy with a well-functioning democracy.
She is an undisputed global leader in advanced chip manufacturing, producing over 90% of global supply. Economic success places her in China's crosshairs.
An acquisition of Taiwan will turn the table in China's favor in the war for dominance of AI and hold the world captive to China's caprice.
Even if China loses a military conflict with the U.S. over Taiwan, more than 75% of global advanced chip will be taken out of commission for at least a decade or more under CCP’s scorched earth program.
What should the U.S. do without committing to a full-blown war 9,000 miles away with a nuclear power that has more surface ships and more soldiers?
The answer lies across another narrow body of water, the Strait of Malacca, in the country of Indonesia. Blockades in the Strait of Hormuz point to vulnerabilities of navigable channels.
Globally, none is more important than the Strait of Malacca, a lifeline of the Chinese economy - 80% of China's energy supply, and 60% of her share of global trade ply through the Strait.
UN Conventions grant the right of free passage for all nations. Alternate routes China could use are Archipelago Sea Lanes that fall within Indonesia's borders.
Limiting China's access to the Strait of Malacca and territorial waters of Indonesia will kneecap China. That will also mean cutting off access to Taiwan-manufactured chips.
Indonesia provides a way out. Indonesia has an estimated 2 billion tons of silica-rich sand, much of it with silica content exceeding 99.5%, making them most suitable for “9N” (or better) standards desired by chip manufacturers.
Current down-streaming projects do little justice to the potential.
Indonesian government and Indonesian industry are most welcoming of foreign capital and advanced technology, fulfilling "Hilirisasi" goals of the administration.
What is needed is a concerted U.S. push to elevate bilateral relations. The US has a lot of catching up to do.
It's projected that a sustained USD 15 billion a year direct investment can establish parity with China in a few years.
That timeline is important.
The Chinese military is rudderless, reeling under President Xi’s purges, getting it combat-ready will take a few years.
Operationalizing down-streaming plants inside Indonesia will take two years, roughly the same needed for setting up a supply chain that avoids the Strait of Malacca.
These require capital and resolve.
Indonesia needs to be confident that a departure from today's close relationship with Chinese counterparts will not be a strategic mistake because of a U.S. U-turn later.
Establishing dominance over the Strait will need close bilateral relations at the highest levels of the government and the military, in addition.
Indonesia is a democratic counterweight to China regionally, can help the U.S. control the Strait of Malacca, losing access to which will impose a lasting pain on the Chinese economy.
With commensurate U.S. investments in minerals and infrastructure inside Indonesia, complemented by highest level diplomatic and military cooperation between the two nations, China cannot threaten to throttle global supply of advanced chips from Taiwan. Further, as the most populous Muslim-majority nation, Indonesia can help validate U.S. intentions in the Persian Gulf and in Africa.
More productive relations with Indonesia is a win-win-win. With so much winning at stake, "The Strait of Good Hope" sounds like a good new name for the Strait of Malacca.
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READ MORE: https://www.newsmax.com/parthachakraborty/malacca-xi-indonesia/2026/05/21/id/1257061/
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