WORLD_ The Saudis are engaged in a great gamble

The Saudis are engaged in a great gamble

To stave off Islamists and liberals at home, the royal family is willing to lose old allies

By Con Coughlin
8:10PM GMT 31 Oct 2013
Comments 305


The inhabitants of the desert kingdom of Saudi Arabia are not renowned for their sense of humour. In a country where public executions by beheading are commonplace, and even relatively minor transgressions such as drinking alcohol can be punished by the lash, the kingdom’s all-powerful religious police do not engender an atmosphere of levity.

So the fact that a video poking fun at Saudi Arabia’s long-standing ban on women drivers has gone viral, with nearly seven million hits registered since it was uploaded a few days ago, suggests that profound changes are taking place in the world’s most conservative country.

Called No Woman, No Drive, the pastiche of Bob Marley’s reggae classic was released by a group of Saudi comedians to support a protest by women drivers. Whether or not they succeed, the fact that women have publicly dared to challenge the authority of the all-powerful mutawa, the religious police, by posting videos of themselves driving to the local store provides a rare glimpse of the mounting resentment that many Saudis feel towards the domestic policies of perhaps the world’s last absolute monarchy.

The disinclination of the younger generation of Saudis (many of whom have been educated at some of the best universities in the West) to tolerate the royal family’s autocratic style of government certainly helps to explain the dramatic changes taking place in Riyadh’s dealings with the outside world.

Faced with growing internal tension – from Islamist radicals as well as liberal reformers – the ruling family is determined to defend its interests by whatever means necessary. This is reflected by a new assertiveness on the world stage – seen most vividly in the surprise decision to reject a seat on the UN Security Council earlier this month. The Saudis turned down this prestigious opportunity – greatly offending their US allies – in protest at the Obama administration’s failure to take military action against Bashar al‑Assad and its recent overtures to Iran, a sworn enemy of the House of Saud.


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From the outset of the Syrian conflict, the Saudis have invested heavily in supporting the rebel groups seeking the overthrow of Assad, not least because he is Iran’s closest ally in the region. They regard getting rid of the Syrian dictator as the best means of dissuading the Iranians from meddling in Saudi affairs – particularly by attempting to incite rebellion against the Sunni monarchy among the predominantly Shia inhabitants of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

Russian diplomats, who have a strategic interest in Assad’s survival, have even suggested that it was the Saudis who were responsible for the chemical weapons attack on the outskirts of Damascus last August, which came close to provoking a military response from the West. Russian intelligence sources claim the Saudis used a “black ops” team to infiltrate Syria via Jordan and instigated the attack to provoke an international response.

If these allegations appear more like the plot from a bad spy novel, they nevertheless illustrate the new mood of self-interested resolve that is driving Saudi Arabia’s dealings with the outside world. Ever since Western powers sided with pro-democracy demonstrators in Egypt’s Tahrir Square and backed the removal of President Mubarak in 2011, there has been a growing sense among the Saudi ruling family that they can no longer trust their allies to protect their interests. If Washington would not support a friend like Mr Mubarak, who had backed America through thick and thin – from the first Gulf War to the September 11 attacks – then what chance would others have of withstanding internal calls for reform?

Anxious to head off any possible hint of anti-government dissent in their own country, the Saudis have embarked on a carefully orchestrated campaign to shore up the Arab world’s anciens régimes, rather than allowing revolution to flourish. They helped to overthrow the short-lived Islamist government of Mohammed Morsi in Egypt, and are working hard to ensure that other monarchies in Bahrain, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates survive the tremors sweeping the region.

The mastermind of this strategy is Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the former darling of Washington’s cocktail party circuit, where he served for many years as Saudi ambassador before becoming the country’s intelligence chief. By alienating long-standing allies such as the US, he and his colleagues are clearly taking a huge gamble, since it is unlikely that the likes of China and Russia would ever give them the same level of protection. But with the entire Arab world in such a state of flux, the Saudis are taking the fight to protect their interests very seriously indeed.

Follow Con Coughlin on Twitter @concoughlin



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