Even if President Bashar al-Assad remains rational, no one can be sure that he still controls Syria’s chemical arsenal, one of the largest in the world
With one miscalculation after another, President Bashar al-Assad has reduced Syria to a charnel house and his regime to a bloodstained gang with no aim save survival Photo: Reuters
By Telegraph View
8:16PM GMT 04 Dec 2012
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With one miscalculation after another, President Bashar al-Assad has reduced Syria to a charnel house and his regime to a bloodstained gang with no aim save survival. Judging by their stark warnings, officials in Britain and America genuinely fear that he could crown his litany of crimes and misjudgments by unleashing Syria’s arsenal of chemical weapons against his enemies.
In reality, of course, this would be singularly futile. The one action guaranteed to provoke US military intervention would be the use of chemical weapons. Instead of saving his own skin, Mr Assad would be a latter-day Samson pulling down the pillars of the temple. Assuming that he is a rational actor, concerned for personal survival, there should be no question of him choosing such a course.
But there remains a nagging fear that this desiccated man, shielded from reality by a criminal entourage, could have passed beyond the bounds of rationality. By now “bunker syndrome” might well have taken hold in Damascus, where Mr Assad’s armed forces have been reduced to fighting for control of the international airport; for a few days last week, all telephone and internet connections with the rest of the world were abruptly severed.
Even if Mr Assad remains rational, no one can be sure that he still controls Syria’s chemical arsenal, one of the largest in the world. These sombre calculations lead to equally harsh policy conclusions. First, pragmatism dictates that the best resolution of this crisis would be Mr Assad’s departure for a safe refuge, probably in Russia, even if this means he escapes justice. Second, all military preparations for securing Syria’s chemical weapons should be made. As history shows, a dictatorial regime becomes most dangerous when its final convulsions begin.
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