Rasmussen Reports Completely Vindicated by 2024 Election Results
Matt Margolis | 10:51 AM on November 08, 2024
During this election, many of us on both sides were obsessed with polls, betting markets, rally sizes, and any sort of tea leaves we could read to gauge where this election stood. In my extensive coverage of the polls this year, one thing that stood out was how the left refused to accept the results of polling that didn't tell them what they wanted to hear. This happens on both sides, but from what I could see, if people on the right thought a poll was suspicious, they would look at the crosstabs and tell you why it was wrong.
If people on the left didn't like the topline results, however, they would accuse the pollster of bias and call it a day. One outfit in particular that endured a lot of criticism from the left was Rasmussen Reports. In fact, they were removed from both FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's election models for being a "partisan" pollster.
The day after Trump won, I spoke with Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, about the election results and how vindicated he feels in light of them.
"What a pack of lying scumbags the entire industry is," he said. "I got a lot of flack for saying that this was gonna be 1980s-style landslide. And I think it was a landslide, but as I said, Trump’s not gonna get as much as Reagan because there was a third-party spoiler, but the parallels are that back then, all the pollsters were lying. They were saying that the race was too close to call. This race was never too close to call according to my numbers, and they just ignored them."
"So, yeah. I feel pretty vindicated," he said. "People try and cherrypick our results to show that we're inaccurate, but we did pretty good in the last few cycles, and I think we did even better now."
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Rasmussen's final national poll had Trump +3 over Kamala, which was spot-on accurate. Their state polling was also remarkably on target, compared to their competitors. Rasmussen correctly called the winner in 93% of these states and stayed within the margin of error 79% of the time, demonstrating reliable precision. The average polling error was just -0.7 points, meaning their predictions were very close to the actual results overall. While there were some larger discrepancies in states like Texas and Nevada, Rasmussen’s polling was otherwise consistently on target, especially in high-profile states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
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READ MORE: https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/11/08/rasmussen-reports-completely-vindicated-by-2024-election-results-n4934072
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