OPINION_ This race is close but I’m predicting Donald Trump wins the Electoral College — and possibly the popular vote

NEW YORK POST

OPINION

This race is close but I’m predicting Donald Trump wins the Electoral College — and possibly the popular vote

By Henry Olsen
Published Nov. 3, 2024, 10:50 p.m. ET

Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Atrium Health Amphitheater on November 03, 2024 in Macon, Georgia. Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla


Legendary Ohio State football coach Woody Hayes used to say there are three things that can happen with a forward pass, and only one of them is good.

Predicting elections is like that: You can get it wrong, say it’s too close to call or get it right.

No wonder most analysts prefer the middle course, rationally relying on polling margins of error and the unpredictability of turnout to avoid making tough calls in races like this year’s.

I’ve been predicting elections for 20 years and believe I owe the people who read my work my best estimate of what will happen. That’s what I’ll do again this year, even though every statistical tool we have available says the outcome could be decided by tenths of a point, the political equivalent of scoring a touchdown by inches.

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READ MORE: https://nypost.com/2024/11/03/opinion/this-race-is-close-but-im-predicting-donald-trump-wins-the-electoral-college-and-possibly-the-popular-vote/

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