LIVE: Republican Primary Exit Poll Analysis
By ABC NEWS ANALYSIS DESK
Apr 26, 2016, 5:01 PM ET
Who turned out in Tuesday's primary and what motivated their votes?
For all the answers, bookmark this page now or star it in the ABC News mobile app.
Republicans are voting in five primaries: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.
The ABC News Analysis Desk will be updating this page all night with live analysis of the exit polls.
Emerging Themes
Who decides? Talk of a contested convention is all the buzz in this year’s GOP contest, and it sharply divides Republican primary voters in preliminary exit poll results in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Connecticut. Donald Trump’s supporters almost unanimously say the candidate with the most votes should win the nomination, even if he lacks a majority of delegates. Among those who back Ted Cruz and or John Kasich, by contrast, nearly six in 10 say the delegates – not the vote totals – should call the tune.
Anti-Trump vote? In a sign of his appeal within the GOP, Trump has particularly high affirmative support in preliminary exit poll results. More than eight in 10 Trump voters say their vote was “mainly for your candidate” rather than against his opponents. Fewer Cruz and Kasich supporters say so, albeit still majorities - three-quarters and nearly two-thirds, respectively. A quarter of Cruz’s voters and third of Kasich’s are negatively motivated, voting mainly not for their guy but “against his opponents.”
Vote in November: Eclipsing previous contests, nearly six in 10 in these preliminary results said they’d definitely vote for Trump as the GOP nominee in November. About a quarter flatly rule him out – rising to four in 10 Cruz supporters and more than six in 10 among Kasich voters, another sign of the party’s deep divisions. That leaves Trump’s “definitely support” numbers more than twice as high as the number who rule him out, while Kasich is slightly in the positive direction and Cruz winds up on the negative side.
Early deciders: Nearly six in 10 GOP primary voters across today’s primaries say they decided on their candidate more than a month ago, on pace to break the record of 55 percent in New York last week, and much more than the average in primaries to date. Trump has dominated among early deciders in previous contests.
Evangelicals: Overall about four in 10 GOP voters evangelicals in Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Maryland, vs. nearly six in 10 on average in previous contests. Evangelicals bottom out at just more than two in 10 in Connecticut, on pace for a record low this election cycle. They’re more prevalent, but still lower than average, in Pennsylvania and Maryland. Trump and Cruz have split evangelical voters about evenly in previous contests, while Cruz has been far weaker among non-evangelicals.
Wall St.: Many GOP primary voters say Wall Street does more to hurt than help the U.S. economy – nearly half in Pennsylvania, four in 10 in Connecticut and a third in Maryland. Anti-trade voters have been good groups for Trump in previous contests.
Attributes: About three in 10 voters in the three largest states voting today say they’re primarily looking for someone who “shares my values,” less prevalent than in previous states, and he attribute on which Trump has done very poorly to date. What’s chiefly boosted him are those looking for a candidate who “tells it like it is” or “can bring needed change” – adding well over half of Republican voters in today’s preliminary exit poll results.
Pennsylvania
Party Unity: The difference between Republicans and Democrats in their view of their respective campaigns’ impact on party unity is striking. In the Pennsylvania GOP primary, just four in 10 say the campaign has energized the party, while nearly six in 10 say it’s divided it. (In the Democratic race, by contrast, seven in 10 say their race has energized the party.)
Even among frontrunner Trump’s supporters, barely more than half say the campaign has energized the party, and that drops sharply among Cruz and Kasich voters.
Unfair: For the first time this election cycle, in Pennsylvania, more GOP voters say Cruz ran the most unfair campaign. In every other state where it’s been asked, win or lose, Trump’s been seen as more unfair.
Fear and excitement: Further showing GOP divisions, half of Cruz and Kasich supporters in Pennsylvania say they’d be scared it Trump won the presidency. On the flipside, excitement for a Trump presidency is much higher among Trump supporters (six in 10), than it is among Cruz’s and Kasich’s.
Trump’s issues: As elsewhere, GOP primary voters in Pennsylvania express broad interest on some of Trump’s main issues – electing someone from “outside the political establishment (more than six in 10) and banning non-U.S. Muslims from entering the country (seven in 10). Fewer, but more than four in 10, also support deporting undocumented immigrants.
Support for an outsider, Trump’s signature calling card, is higher than the average across primaries this year, while support for his two policy positions is near average.
Economic issues: GOP voters’ economic concerns also continue to work to Trump’s advantage. In Pennsylvania, nearly six in 10 are very worried about the direction of the economy and, by a 10-point margin, more say international trade takes away U.S. jobs than say it creates them. Worried and anti-trade voters have been strong groups for Trump in previous contests.
READ MORE: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-republican-primary-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=38654929
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