WORLD_ New global terrorist threats

New global terrorist threats

Ronald Crelinsten
Published on: July 9, 2014Last Updated: July 9, 2014 2:15 PM EDT
Ottawacitizen.com


Last week’s warning about a new threat to aviation stemming from the Yemeni-based terrorist group, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and the possibility of foreign fighters returning to the West from Syria, highlights the complex relationship between events in the Middle East and North Africa and global terror threats.

The threat is that radicalized Westerners fighting in Syria alongside Islamist rebels may be convinced to carry undetectable bombs hidden in electronic devices onto planes bound for home. According to intelligence reports, AQAP bomb-makers are already in Syria and have teamed up with al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusrah (JN), one of the rebel groups fighting the Assad regime. It was AQAP who developed the underwear bomb used by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab in his attempt to blow up a plane on Christmas Day in 2009. AQAP also developed the undetectable printer cartridge bombs that were discovered on two separate cargo planes in October 2010 due to a tip from Saudi Arabia.

Events in Iraq over the past weeks have focused attention on the group Islamic State (IS), formerly known as Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), which changed its name after declaring the restoration of the caliphate in territory it now controls in eastern Syria and northwestern Iraq. Originally based in Iraq, ISIL moved into Syria to join those fighting the al-Assad regime. It soon became involved in infighting among the diverse rebel groups vying for foreign funds and recruits.

Damian Clairmont, the Muslim convert from Calgary who went to Syria to fight with the rebels, died last January near Aleppo in a clash between JN, with whom he fought, and the Free Syrian Army, a secular rebel group.

Al Qaeda (AQ) sees IS as a threat to its own global, anti-Western agenda. IS’s dramatic success on the ground and audacious restoration of the caliphate position it well to compete successfully for recruits and sponsors. AQ leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has condemned IS for its brutal methods and indiscriminate, sectarian attacks. This reflects his conception of jihad as a fight against the “far enemy” (the U.S. and its Western allies) rather than the “near enemy” (rulers of Arab states considered as apostates because they are secular, Shia, or do not impose sharia law).

AQ affiliates often discriminate between Muslims and non-Muslims in their attacks for this reason.

An offshoot of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) led by Mokhtar Belmokhtar took over an Algerian gas plant in January of last year, separating foreigners from Muslims with the help of two Canadians from London, Ontario. Al Shabaab, the Somali group responsible for the Mumbai-like Westgate Mall attack in Kenya last September, asked its victims if they were Muslim, testing them with questions from the Quran, and sparing those who answered correctly. Boko Haram, which kidnapped hundreds of schoolgirls in northern Nigeria last April, and continues to commit kidnappings and atrocious bombings to this day, often targets Christians and churches.

AQ affiliates certainly have local histories, goals and grievances despite sharing a global Islamist vision and a hatred of the West. While they often specifically target foreigners or those perceived to be Westerners, they also attack local police and military or community leaders opposed to them. Yet they also share funding, training and occasional operations, crossing borders at will.

Whether the escalating violence between Sunni and Shia that is engulfing the Levant at present will impede AQ’s ability to further its broader agenda and mount large-scale attacks against Western interests remains to be seen. Deeper involvement by Western powers in Iraq or Syria, such as airstrikes, would certainly tip the balance in AQ’s favour over the sectarians.

Ronald Crelinsten is Associate Fellow with the Centre for Global Studies at the University of Victoria and Adjunct Professor at Royal Roads University. His books include “Counterterrorism” and “Western Responses to Terrorism.”  



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