OPINION_ Treading Water on Syria

Treading Water on Syria

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD

JAN. 12, 2014
The New York Times


Nearly three years after the fighting began, many of the most dire predictions about Syria’s civil war have come true. The conflict has not only engulfed the country, killing more than 130,000 people and forcing more than nine million civilians out of their homes. Increasingly, it has metastasized across the region, destabilizing neighboring countries and serving as a magnet for militants, or would-be militants, including some from the United States.

The war has become exceedingly complicated, compounding the bitter rivalry between Saudi Arabia, a Sunni-majority state that is a major backer of Sunni rebels seeking to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, and Shiite-led Iran, Mr. Assad’s top supporter. And there is no indication that the United States or any other power has the influence to bring it to an end. The prospects for a peace conference planned for Jan. 22 in Switzerland are not encouraging. Just getting all sides to the table will not be enough, and even that looks doubtful.

One of the most alarming developments has been the extent to which better-equipped and better-trained Islamist and Al Qaeda-linked rebel groups have come to dominate the battlefield over more moderate, secular and Western-oriented opposition forces. The moderates have long been fractured and the United States has been slow to provide them with supplies and training, in part because of problems controlling who gets the assistance.

Since the beginning of January, a Qaeda affiliate that even other militants consider too extreme, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, known as ISIS, has come under attack from some of its former allies, including another Qaeda affiliate, the Nusra Front, and the Islamic Front, a coalition of Islamic fighters once allied with the American-backed Free Syrian Army. These groups were outraged by ISIS, which wants to build an Islamist caliphate straddling Syria and Iraq, and its campaign to control the insurgency by brutalizing rebel-held areas, confiscating other rebels’ weapons, arresting hundreds of Syrians, and executing those they say have violated Shariah law.

The fighting has reportedly forced ISIS to abandon some bases and towns it controlled; it would be good if Qaeda hard-liners were truly on the run. The United States suspended shipments of nonlethal aid (like trucks and food rations) to the moderates in December after warehouses of equipment were seized by the Islamic Front. (The C.I.A. runs a separate covert program to arm and train the rebels.)

Administration officials are now considering resuming the nonlethal assistance, which is run by the State Department, after some of the Islamists fought alongside the Free Syrian Army against ISIS and the Islamic Front returned the warehouses and some of the contents. Providing such aid could strengthen the moderates and encourage them to attend peace talks. It could also reassure the Saudis, who want the United States to play a bigger role in Syria and fear that American moves toward cooperation with Iran, especially as America eases sanctions as part of the nuclear deal, will propel Iran’s rise as a regional power.

There is a danger that American aid could backfire, as it did in the 1980s when support for Mujahedeen fighters battling the Soviets helped to create fertile ground for terrorist movements years later. But the risk may be worth it. Syrian extremists are already trying to recruit and train Americans and other Westerners to carry out attacks in the United States, senior American officials say. A negotiated political agreement remains the best solution to the Syrian war but there are no signs that Mr. Assad and the rebels are ready to make any deal. Several opposition factions met in Spain last Friday but could not even agree on whether to attend the peace conference. As Mr. Assad’s main ally, Iran could go a long way toward persuading the world of its readiness to play a constructive international role by encouraging Mr. Assad to step aside in favor of a transitional government. But there is no sign of that, and it appears that Iran will not attend the peace conference, presuming it even takes place.

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