WORLD_ Syria's flirtation with chemical weapons suggests that Bashar al-Assad may be losing his grip on events

Syria's flirtation with chemical weapons suggests that Bashar al-Assad may be losing his grip on events

By David Blair _ World _ Last updated: January 8th, 2013
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When President Barack Obama publicly warned Syria’s regime against the “tragic mistake” of using chemical weapons last month, many asked why America was suddenly sounding the alarm. It seemed that Syria’s army might have taken some concrete steps towards preparing to gas its enemies.

Today’s New York Times provides much more detail. It appears that Syria had actually brought together the precursor chemicals for sarin nerve gas and begun filling 500-pound bombs with this deadly toxin.

Obama’s public warning, combined with urgent private messages from Russia and the Arab states, then caused the regime to back down and halt this process. Nonetheless, the evidence suggests that President Bashar al-Assad was, at the very least, preparing the option of gassing his enemies. That alone gives a disturbing insight into his state of mind.

I’ve written before how it would never be rational for him to use chemical weapons. Instead of saving his regime, this would actually guarantee his downfall – as one US official told the New York Times: “This is the one thing that could get us to intervene in the war.”

To my mind, there are three possible explanations for this episode:

1) Assad ordered the preparation of chemical weapons as a deliberate bluff with the aim of spreading terror. He anticipated that his efforts would be detected. When the news got out, he hoped that his enemies would be suitably terrified.

2) Assad didn’t order these steps to be taken: others in the command structure were responsible. When he found out about it, courtesy of the Americans, he put a stop to it.

3) Assad is no longer rational and he was seriously prepared to gas his enemies.

On balance, my hunch is that explanation (1) is most likely. But possibility (2) would mean that Assad is losing control of his chemical arsenal to military commanders who may not be rational actors. As such, (2) and (3) are perhaps equally frightening.

Tags: america, Barack Obama, Bashar al-Assad, chemical weapons, Syria, The New York Times *** 80 Comments

Read more: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidblair/100197220/syrias-flirtation-with-chemical-weapons-suggests-that-bashar-al-assad-may-be-losing-his-grip-on-events/


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