TIPSHEET
Polling Strategist Predicts Trump Will Take Home the Victory In November
Sarah Arnold | June 26, 2024 6:15 PM
Former President Donald Trump is polling ahead of President Joe Biden with less than five months until the November election.
According to a Quinnipiac University national poll, Trump has secured 49 percent of support in a head-to-head matchup, with Biden garnering only 45 percent.
Trump appeared to be back in the game after a May Quinnipiac University poll found that the former president was behind Biden by one point.
When including other candidates in the poll, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump does better against Biden.
“The political heat rises in this steamy American summer of discord. Trump holds a narrow lead in the head-to-head matchup and is in a slightly better position when all the candidates are included,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said.
With less than 24 hours until the first presidential 2024 debate between Trump and Biden, the poll found that Biden and Trump voters will not change who they would vote for. However, those supporting Kennedy said they were open to the possibility of changing their choice for president based on the debate performances.
Meanwhile, an AARP poll found that Trump is leading in nearly all of the swing states-- which are crucial to win the election.
In Nevada, the GOP nominee has a three-percentage point lead over Biden and is favored by 48 percent of likely voters. Only 45 percent indicated they would vote for Biden if the election were held today.
“The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden)," polling and data guru Nate Silver wrote in his setback.
Trump leads in every national poll for states, including Pennsylvania, Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Florida.
“If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied," Silver continued.
Silver added that the race is not a “toss-up” and that any polling guru claiming that, is telling a “white lie.” He said there was a time when the Democratic Party could have turned things around and given the nomination to Vice President Kamala Harris or another candidate. However, he stated it would be “a terrible idea" now.
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READ MORE: https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2024/06/26/biden-admin-floated-idea-to-use-school-children-to-register-dem-leaning-voters-n2640999
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