Anwar Amro/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Updated: Nov. 8, 2011
The wave of Arab unrest that started with the Tunisian revolution of January 2011 reached Syria in mid-March, when residents of a small southern city took to the streets to protest the torture of students who had put up anti-government graffiti.
President Bashar al-Assad, who inherited Syria’s harsh dictatorship from his father, Hafez al-Assad, at first wavered between force and hints of reform. But in April, just days after lifting the country’s decades-old state of emergency, he launched the first of what became a series of withering crackdowns, sending tanks into restive cities as security forces opened fire on demonstrators.
Neither the violence nor Mr. Assad’s offers of political reform — rejected as shams by protest leaders — brought an end to the unrest. Similarly, the protesters have not been able to withstand direct assault by the military’s armored forces.
The conflict is complicated by Syria’s ethnic divisions. The Assads and much of the nation’s elite, especially the military, belong to the Alawite sect, a small minority in a mostly Sunni country.
Syria’s crackdown has been condemned internationally, as has President Assad, a British-trained doctor who many had hoped would soften his father’s iron-handed regime.
In early November, days after the Syrian government accepted a plan brokered by the Arab League to halt violence and convene talks with the opposition, it launched a bloody assault to retake Homs, the country’s third-largest city.
The specter of civil war has long hung over Homs, the most tenacious of cities opposed to Mr. Assad’s rule, where the city’s Sunni Muslim majority has closed ranks behind the revolt. In November, parts of Homs became an urban battlefield, with activists claiming that government forces killed 111 people in five days.
The strife came as mediation by the Arab League apparently collapsed. The Syrian government has consistently demonstrated its willingness to stanch dissent with force, ignoring the protests of the international community.
The United Nations said in a report published in October that at least 3,000 people have been killed since the uprising started in Syria and that thousands have disappeared or been jailed or tortured; the Arab League put the number of political prisoners in Syria at 70,000.
The Syrian government disputes these figures. It says that it is battling armed foreign groups who have killed more than 1,100 police and soldiers.
Protest Timeline
Nov. 7 In November, parts of the city of Homs became an urban battlefield, with activists claiming that government forces killed 111 people in five days.
The strife came as mediation by the Arab League apparently collapsed. The Syrian government has consistently demonstrated its willingness to stanch dissent with force, ignoring the protests of the international community. Even so, Homs has emerged as a sign to Syrians of the possible success of fighting back against a military force that, while still unified, has suffered ever more defections as the fighting persists.
Nov. 4 Syrian forces killed at least 25 people, opposition groups reported. Activists and some Western officials said this spate of bloodshed called into question the Syrian government’s commitment to a plan brokered by the Arab League to halt violence and convene talks with the opposition.
Nov. 3 Syrian forces killed at least 12 people in the restive city of Homs, a day after the government accepted a plan brokered by the Arab League to halt violence and convene talks with the opposition in two weeks.
Nov. 2 The violent crackdown against protesters continued within Syria, and two cases of what appeared to be mass sectarian killings added to the sense that the Syrian uprising and the crackdown by President Assad has ignited simmering tensions among a brutalized people. If confirmed, the wave of 20 deaths could be the most serious sectarian bloodshed since demonstrations broke out in March in the southern town of Dara’a.
Nov. 1 The Lebanese police have accused Syria of orchestrating the kidnapping of Syrian dissidents in Lebanon, a country that has served as a haven for them since the uprising against the government of President Assad began nearly eight months ago.
Oct. 28 Syrian security forces killed at least 40 people during antigovernment demonstrations. Most of the deaths occurred in central Syria, the most restive region in the country, with 21 people killed in Homs and 14 in Hama. Over all, the United Nations estimates that 3,000 people have been killed since demonstrations began.
Oct. 25 The Syrian National Council, an opposition group, called for international protection from the government’s military crackdown on protesters, a day before a delegation of Arab ministers, headed by the prime minister of Qatar, was expected to meet with President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus.
Oct. 24 Robert S. Ford, the American ambassador to Damascus who had played a high-profile role in Syria since the uprising began there, left the country after receiving “credible threats against his personal safety,” embassy officials said. Since the uprising erupted in March, he had been vocal in his criticism of the government crackdown, even posting statements on his Facebook page. The embassy’s chargé d’affaires said no date had been set for Mr. Ford’s return, and cautioned that his departure did not mean the United States had formally withdrawn Mr. Ford.
Syrian-American Accused of Being A Spy
In mid-October, the Justice Department accused, Mohamad Anas Haitham Soueid, a Syrian-American man of secretly working for a Syrian intelligence service. It said he collected information about people in the United States who were protesting the Syrian government’s crackdown on the country’s pro-democracy movement, as part of a scheme to “silence, intimidate and potentially harm the protesters.”
Mr. Soueid, a resident of Leesburg, Va., was arrested and charged with six offenses, including serving as a foreign agent without registering and making false statements, authorities said. They described him as a naturalized American citizen born in Syria.
The indictment of Mr. Soueid says that he undertook surveillance of protesters against the Syrian government, including recruiting others to make videos of rallies and interviews with people at the rallies. He also gathered names, phone numbers and e-mail addresses of protesters, and sent the materials to the Syrian intelligence service, the Mukhabarat, the indictment says.
It also says he was working with an official at the Syrian Embassy in the United States, and that in June the Syrian government paid for him to travel to Syria, where he met with intelligence officials and spoke with Mr. Assad, in private. In addition, the indictment cites a handwritten letter to a Syrian official in which Mr. Soueid is alleged to have expressed the belief that the Syrian government was justified in using violence against protesters and raiding their homes.
Background to Protests
The country’s last serious stirrings of public discontent had come in 1982, when increasingly violent skirmishes with the Muslim Brotherhood prompted Hafez al-Assad to move against them, sending troops to kill at least 10,000 people and smashing the old city of Hama. Hundreds of fundamentalist leaders were jailed, many never seen alive again.
Syria has a liability not found in the successful uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt — it is a majority Sunni nation that is ruled by a religious minority, the Alawite sect of Shiite Islam. Hafez Assad forged his power base through fear, cooption and sect loyalty. He built an alliance with an elite Sunni business community, and created multiple security services staffed primarily by Alawites. Those security forces have a great deal to lose if the government falls, experts said, because they are part of a widely despised minority, and so have the incentive of self-preservation.
In July, the Obama administration, in a shift that was weeks in the making, turned against Mr. Assad but stopped short of demanding that he step down. By early August, the American ambassador was talking of a “post-Assad” Syria.
In October, Syrian dissidents formally established the Syrian National Council in what seemed to be the most serious attempt to bring together a fragmented opposition. The group’s stated goal was to overthrow President Assad’s government. Members said the council included representatives from the Damascus Declaration group, a pro-democracy network; the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, a banned Islamic political party; various Kurdish factions; the Local Coordination Committees, a group that helps organize and document protests; and other independent and tribal figures.
Foreign Policy
Under the administration of President George W. Bush, Syria was once again vilified as a dangerous pariah. It was linked to the 2005 killing of a former Lebanese prime minister, Rafik Hariri. In 2007, Israeli jets destroyed buildings in Syria that intelligence officials said might have been the first stage in a nuclear weapons program. And the United States and its Arab allies mounted a vigorous campaign to isolate Damascus, which they accused of sowing chaos and violence throughout the middle east through its support for militant groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
President Obama came into office pledging to engage with Syria, arguing that the Bush administration’s efforts to isolate Syria had done nothing to wean it from Iran or encourage Middle East peace efforts. So far, however, the engagement has been limited. American diplomats have visited Damascus, but have reiterated the same priorities as the Bush administration: protesting Syria’s military support to Hezbollah and Hamas, and its strong ties with Iran.
Secret State Department cables obtained by WikiLeaks and made available to several news organizations show that arms transactions involving Syria and Hezbollah continue to greatly concern the Obama administration. Hezbollah’s arsenal now includes up to 50,000 rockets and missiles, including some 40 to 50 Fateh-110 missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv and most of Israel, and 10 Scud-D missiles.
“Syria’s determined support of Hizballah’s military build-up, particularly the steady supply of longer-range rockets and the introduction of guided missiles could change the military balance and produce a scenario significantly more destructive than the July-August 2006 war,” said a November 2009 cable from the American chargé d’affaires in Damascus.
According to cables, Syrian leaders appeared to believe that the weapons shipments increased their political leverage with the Israelis. But they made Lebanon even more of a tinderbox and increased the prospect that a future conflict might include Syria.
The Hariri Case
Also looming is potential new trouble in Lebanon, where a United Nations-backed international tribunal is expected to indict members of Hezbollah in the death of Mr. Hariri. Hezbollah and its allies — including high-ranking Syrian officials — have warned that an indictment could set off civil conflict.
The United States withdrew its ambassador in 2005 after Mr. Hariri was killed in a car bombing in Beirut along with 22 others. Syria was widely accused of having orchestrated the killing, though it has vehemently denied involvement. The Bush administration imposed economic sanctions on Syria, as part of a broader effort to isolate the government of President Bashar al-Assad.
The current chill is a significant change from the situation a few years ago, when Mr. al-Assad showed signs of wanting warmer relations with the West than his father, Hafez al-Assad, had ever pursued. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France led the way with a visit in September 2008. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who was said to be furious at the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, welcomed him warmly in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, in March 2009. And Prime Minster Ehud Olmert of Israel hinted at a revival of talks on the Golan Heights — a prospect that faded when Mr. Olmert was succeeded by the more conservative Benjamin Netanyahu.
Turkish Opposition to Assad
Once one of Syria’s closest allies, Turkey is hosting an armed opposition group waging an insurgency against the government of President Assad, providing shelter to the commander and dozens of members of the group, the Free Syrian Army, and allowing them to orchestrate attacks across the border from inside a camp guarded by the Turkish military.
Turkish support for the insurgents comes amid a broader campaign to undermine Mr. Assad’s government. Turkey is expected to impose sanctions on Syria, and it has deepened its support for the Syrian National Council. But its harboring of leaders in the Free Syrian Army, a militia composed of defectors from the Syrian armed forces, may be its most striking challenge so far to Damascus.
On Oct. 26, 2011, the Free Syrian Army, living in a heavily guarded refugee camp in Turkey, claimed responsibility for killing nine Syrian soldiers, including one uniformed officer, in an attack in restive central Syria.
The group is too small to pose any real challenge to Mr. Assad’s government but support from Turkey underlines how combustible, and resilient, Syria’s uprising has proven. The country sits at the intersection of influences in the region — with Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Israel — and Turkey’s involvement will be closely watched by Syria’s friends and foes.
Turkish officials say that their government has not provided weapons or military support to the insurgent group, nor has the group directly requested such assistance.
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