Monday, October 31, 2011

Ý Kiến- Phê Bình- Thảo Luận qua Nhận Định của Guardian_ Syria: delaying the inevitable

Syria: delaying the inevitable

Bashar al-Assad is the master of delay, delusion, and self-deception, as the isolation of his regime increases



Comments (28)
Editorial
guardian.co.uk, Monday 31 October 2011 21.01 GMT
Article history


Eight months on, the uprising in Syria has changed. There is now a Free Syrian Army in Turkey claiming it has battalions across Syria. One such is the Khalid bin Walid battalion in Homs, a unit of several hundred army officers and soldiers who defected and now shoot back when demonstrations are fired on, ambush troop convoys, and kill regime informers. Protesters gathering in Homs and Hama, the frontline of the anti-regime protests – the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that 40% of the people killed in the uprising came from Homs – are now calling on Nato to establish a no-fly zone over Syria. Week by week, the land is descending into civil war.

There are few signs, however, that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has changed. Like his fellow dictators in their final days, he is a man in denial. As 40 died at the hands of his security forces in the last few days, and Homs came under sustained assault, Assad talked in his interview with the Sunday Telegraph of a turning tide of support for the government, where the army were only targeting terrorists. In the past, an Assad speech promising reform or an interview saying he was ready to talk to the opposition was a sure prelude to yet another violent crackdown. This interview could turn out to be no different. He is the master of delay, delusion, and self-deception, as the isolation of his regime increases. Former allies peel away – first Turkey, then Saudi Arabia, and now the Arab League. But Assad was right on one point – if his regime fell the whole region would change. Unlike Egypt or Tunisia, Assad's Baáthist regime stands at the crossroads of a complex network of alliances.

If the regime fell, it would affect more than the resistance network of Hamas and Hezbollah. Hamas's external leadership is already preparing its move from Damascus, after it incurred the wrath of its hosts by failing to condemn the uprising, and will probably move to Turkey, Jordan and Qatar. Hezbollah, which unequivocally supported the Syrian leadership, would lose a vital lifeline of military support from Iran. But beyond them, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran would all be shaken to the core if the majority Sunnis in Syria returned to the ascendancy. In Iraq there are already signs of the Sunnis demanding Kurdish-style autonomy from the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad. If it lost Syria, Iran would lose the central plank of its regional power, and its regime, which has posed as the great defender of the Shia, would once again become vulnerable to internal revolt. The 10 Afghanistans that Assad promised would greet the arrival of a western intervention in Syria is an exaggeration, but the change happening in the Arab world, which has never in his history had nation states, is profound enough.

Nato is not, happily, contemplating another intervention. As we are all now witnessing in Libya, a no-fly zone does not protect civilian lives – estimates of the dead over the past eight months range from 10,000 to 50,000. Nor is its aim to force dictators to negotiate. As UN mandates have been interpreted by the leading military powers of Nato, no-fly zones are a cover for regime change. Assad knows he is next and he will play every card, especially the sectarian one, to delay what must surely now be the inevitable. The uprising is at a critical stage. Syria's two biggest cities, Damascus and Aleppo, have stayed loyal to the regime, and Assad is for the moment confident he has weathered the worst. But the damage done by the savage repression elsewhere is irreversible. The economic sanctions have yet to bite. Not enough army officers and soldiers have defected to make a difference.

There may be no alternative to civil war, but if there is, it will not be through intervention. It can only be achieved when Assad sees that he is finished, and that his only hope of survival is to agree to a transitional government and free elections.

***

Comments in chronological order (Total 28 comments)


Raymond82
31 October 2011 9:32PM

If the regime fell, it would affect more than the resistance network of Hamas and Hezbollah. Hamas's external leadership is already preparing its move from Damascus, after it incurred the wrath of its hosts by failing to condemn the uprising, and will probably move to Turkey, Jordan and Qatar. Hezbollah, which unequivocally supported the Syrian leadership, would lose a vital lifeline of military support from Iran.


Hezbollah might be weakened but a Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt and Syria would strengthen HAMAS


But beyond them, Lebanon, Iraq and Iran would all be shaken to the core if the majority Sunnis in Syria returned to the ascendancy. In Iraq there are already signs of the Sunnis demanding Kurdish-style autonomy from the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad. If it lost Syria, Iran would lose the central plank of its regional power, and its regime, which has posed as the great defender of the Shia, would once again become vulnerable to internal revolt.

This may seem a dream for those wanting to control the mid east to see Iran fall but the Shia Crescent will just be replaced by a Saudi controlled mass from Tunisia to the borders of Iran. The Muslim Brother



DannySmith
31 October 2011 9:36PM
As we are all now witnessing in Libya, a no-fly zone does not protect civilian lives

No fly zones protect the lives of the side that is in the right and create freedom. That's the point. I find it sad you use the defeat of Gaddafi and his supporters as a reason why we should not do the same for Syria to free a people and create a much more stable region.



Lagrange1945
31 October 2011 9:46PM
Instead of concentrating on the external issue, it would be better to consider internal issue. Minorities syria have not joined the uprising. They fear a sunni rule would mean a return to persecution. Even worse, it could lead to ethinic cleansing in Syria. So far in tunisia, egypt and libya the islamic fundamentalsts are gaining strength, and the same thing will happen in Syria. Reiligious hatered exists in Syria but that has been overpowered by the nature of the dictatosrship, if Assad falls it will resurface.



SchadenfreudeHaHaHa
31 October 2011 9:55PM
Amazing how myopic a trained ophthalmologist can be.


SchadenfreudeHaHaHa
31 October 2011 9:55PM
Amazing how myopic a trained ophthalmologist can be.

As for:

his only hope of survival is to agree to a transitional government and free elections.

Assad is riding the tiger. As soon as he gets off he's as dead as Gaddafi.

No matter which dictator falls, there will not be liberal democracy in the (Arab) middle east for generations yet. We'll still be talking about the impending 'Arab Spring' come 2030.



Raymond82
31 October 2011 9:58PM
...............as a reason why we should not do the same for Syria to free a people and create a much more stable region.

Creating another Iraq will not make the region more stable

nstead of concentrating on the external issue, it would be better to consider internal issue. Minorities syria have not joined the uprising. They fear a sunni rule would mean a return to persecution. Even worse, it could lead to ethinic cleansing in Syria.

Look to Iraq to see what will happen in Syria. In Iraq many Christians have fled many to Syria post "liberation". Churches are now being bombed. Not yet in Syria but look at Egypt for what is coming up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/28/world/middleeast/fearing-change-syria-christians-back-bashar-al-assad.html?pagewanted=all



Harryplace
31 October 2011 10:12PM
Yeah,no oil no intervention. You can bet every penny you have that if Syria had loads of the black stuff under their land that the USA and their cronies would be in there bombing the crap out of them right now,on humanitarian grounds obviously. :)



DannySmith
31 October 2011 10:21PM
Creating another Iraq will not make the region more stable

Firstly there is no evidence the region is less stable because of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Secondly, a no fly zone would not have foreign troops on the ground that could prolong the war after the regime has fallen.

The moral thing to do is to help Syrians in the same way we helped Libya. That's what they're increasingly calling on us to do.



AnthropoidApe
31 October 2011 10:21PM
Nato is not, happily, contemplating another intervention. As we are all now witnessing in Libya, a no-fly zone does not protect civilian lives -- estimates of the dead over the past eight months range from 10,000 to 50,000. Nor is its aim to force dictators to negotiate. As UN mandates have been interpreted by the leading military powers of Nato, no-fly zones are a cover for regime change.

Once again the Guardian demonstrates its unrivaled talent for critical servility, retrospectively denouncing the crimes of the Nato regimes with a fine impotent outrage after cravenly backing them during their actual commission.

When and if the Nato gangsters do attack Syria the Guardian will once again be right on side with their imperialist masters, bleating about "the dictator" and retailing the latest official lies along the lines of babies being thrown out of incubators and soldiers being issued Viagra to rape civilians.



DannySmith
31 October 2011 10:23PM
Yeah,no oil no intervention.

Pssst, oil companies were in Libya before the intervention. There was no oil in Kosovo either.

The main reason they're worried is because they're scared of what Iran might do, and the Syrian regime has close links to Russia and China who would block moves at the UN.

What should happen is an independent NATO no fly zone.



DannySmith
31 October 2011 10:26PM
Once again the Guardian demonstrates its unrivaled talent for critical servility, retrospectively denouncing the crimes of the Nato regimes with a fine impotent outrage after cravenly backing them during their actual commission.

Huh? Crimes? What are you on about. The dictatorship had already launched a war against the people. Nato simply made sure the victims won instead of the dictatorship who were sending the tanks in to put down the people. These deaths would have occurred anyway, perhaps many more as the war raged on for decades like in many African countries.

Lives were saved and a people were freed. Don't let anyone lie to you that this was not the case.



Raymond82
31 October 2011 10:34PM
Firstly there is no evidence the region is less stable because of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

Millions dead millions refugees and mass unemployment is not stability. A continous civil war is not stability. What you are meant to say by "stability" is what you reveal later- a more US orientated Saudi backed regime.

Secondly, a no fly zone would not have foreign troops on the ground that could prolong the war after the regime has fallen
Neither here or there. Damage is caused either way

The moral thing to do is to help Syrians in the same way we helped Libya. That's what they're increasingly calling on us to do.
Bharainis are asking for help how comes thats not coming? Saudis?

The main reason they're worried is because they're scared of what Iran might do, and the Syrian regime has close links to Russia and China who would block moves at the UN.
See thats the real reason not at any concern at protecting lives as it won't. Syria wouldn't be allied to Iran but being a Saudi Satellite is hardly better



Raymond82
31 October 2011 10:37PM
There was no oil in Kosovo either.

But now a site of a giant US base




bariloche
31 October 2011 10:38PM
Syria has oil reserves of 2,500,000,000 barrels.. #34 in the world...

Re Libya.. didn't we have a sweet BP-Blair oil deals going on pre intervention... could of simply let Gaddafi win to maintain our supply...

Syria and Assad will be a pariah for years.. change will happen though, unfortunately for the Syrians quite slowly..



Harryplace
31 October 2011 10:38PM
@Dannysmith

Pssst, oil companies were in Libya before the intervention. There was no oil in Kosovo either.

I think you will find that the oil industry was rapped up by the Libyan national oil company. They owned about 705 of the oil and even the foreign companies who won contracts after it was opened out a few years ago have to pay NCO a hefty chunk of every barrel and also pay for the development of the fields. Now you will find that the 70% will be sold off to mulit national oil companies and the Libyans will not be getting what they should out of their own oil. As for Kosovo,yes they had no oil but what they did have was strategic position. The Americans have one of the biggest army bases in the world there now, Camp Bondsteel.



ITS1789
31 October 2011 10:38PM
This is pretty sanctimonious stuff... even for a Guardian leader. What is it with these 'liberal' warmongers? What is it about war that turns them on so? We're talking about something that's similar to a great liberal crusade for 'freedom' that leads seemingly inevitably to collosal loss of life and massive destruction, and the promissed 'freedom' and progress towards Swiss-style democracy is just always out of reach... but honest, hand on heart, next time, next war, things will be so different.

So we topple another regime, and another nation falls to pieces, and who gains from this new and so successful doctrine? Well, it certainly isn't the ordinary people, who don't even really matter to us, how could they?

Democracy and freedom are the ideological smokescreen puffed out by our politicians and their tame media, which includes the Guardian, which is shameful. The smokescreen is designed to hide our true motives which are purely strategic and economic. With Syria destroyed as a unitary state it can be carved up by its neighbours, and then it's onwards to Iran and Pakistan, and then were to? Well, I'm sure the Chinese and Russians won't just sit there and wait patiently until it's their turn for dose of 'democracy' and 'freedom.'

And what is this 'democracy' and 'freedom' crusade based on, what's the model we desire to introduce? Why it's democracy for the 1% who own virtually everything of value in the UK and US and 'freedom' for the 1% to screw everybody else, in societies which are chronically unjust, where Power is in the hands of a tiny, fabulously wealthy elite, who fuck everybody over, and over, and over. And this corrupt, decadent and degenerate 'democracy' is our gift to the world and why we kill so many people and destroy their countries?



Harryplace
31 October 2011 10:42PM
@Dannysmith

Lives were saved and a people were freed

Evidence of all those lives saved? You have none,just making bold claims. According to some figures up to 50,000 people have died and many of them you can be sure were killed by NATO not Gaddafi duck.



onceagreatnation
31 October 2011 10:43PM
Of all the NUTS to crack Assad will be the hardest.



Clunie
31 October 2011 10:47PM
I have no desire to see any Western intervention in Syria and I'm pretty sure the protesters haven't asked for any, but I would very much like to see the UN approve what the protesters have repeatedly asked for - an observers' mission and human rights monitors (who needn't, in fact shouldn't be Western). If they were actually serious about stopping the bloodshed they would have done that long ago.



ITS1789
31 October 2011 10:49PM
Let's try to bury the bullshit argument that the western oil companies were already in Libya, so we didn't need to invade to secure acess to their oil.

The point is that both western governments and oil companies were irritated and frustrated over the Gadaffi regimes 'resource nationalism', which is western code for not allowing the international oil companies free and unrestricted access to Libya's oil. The Libyans knew that their vast oil reserves were only going to be more valuable as time passed, and their interests were to pump as little as possible for as long as possible and hold the price high. The West's interests are the opposite. We want to exploit Libya's oil reserves at a far higher rate because we are desparate for oil and obviously don't want to become too reliant on Russian supplies.

All the wars for 'freedom' we've been involved in over the last twenty odd years have, in some way, been about strategic and economic interests, and first and foremost oil and gas, and securing routes for pipelines.

The wars have nothing, nothing, to do with human rights, democracy and freedom, but everything about booty and glory.



edwardrice
31 October 2011 10:58PM
DannySmith

Lives were saved and a people were freed. Don't let anyone lie to you that this was not the case.
You don't know that unless you are claiming to be able to see into the future.

What we do know now is the rebels put into power by Nato have turned out to be just as bad as the Gaddafi regime if not worse.

Tawergha, a town of 30,000 has been ethically cleansed. It's people scattered and living in terror. Sirte, a town of 100,000 has been reduced to rubble. Reports of civilains killed by Nato's bombs. Rebels are arresting and torturing anyone they suspect of being a Gaddafi loyalist. The ''new militias are motivated by vengeance and rivalry in equal measure''. Apparently Islamists in Benghazi, have an Al Qaeda flag
above the court house. 20,000 anti-aircraft missiles have been looted and the country is awash with guns. Everyday their is more news of the rebels committing the sort of crimes that Gaddafi was accused of.



bariloche
31 October 2011 10:58PM
Agree to an extent.. but the Chinese were one of the main beneficiaries from Iraq http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/29/world/middleeast/29iraq.html




Harryplace
31 October 2011 11:10PM
bariloche

but the Chinese were one of the main beneficiaries from Iraq

Lukoil and many of the other international oil companies that won fields in the auction are now subcontracting mostly with the four largely American oil services companies that are global leaders in their field: Halliburton, Baker Hughes, Weatherford International and Schlumberger. Those four have won the largest portion of the subcontracts to drill for oil, build wells and refurbish old equipment.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/17/business/energy-environment/17oil.html?pagewanted=all

We will not count the hundreds of billions that the Americans arms and security companies have made.




Arapas
1 November 2011 12:11AM
the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that 40% of the people killed in the uprising came from Homs – are now calling on Nato to establish a no-fly zone over Syria. Week by week, the land is descending into civil war.

The answer is here, in yesterday's Guardian:
Rasmussen ruled out Nato military action in Syria. "Nato has no intention [to intervene] whatsoever. I can completely rule that out," he told reporters. "Having said that, I strongly condemn the crackdown on the civilian population in Syria.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/31/nato-ends-libya-rasmussen?INTCMP=SRCH



hkhoury
1 November 2011 12:15AM
I know Bashar personally. I know well what type of personality he is. Bashar was a “nice” person, however superficial and has no good understanding for real life. Consequently, Bashar could have had good wishes, when he started his presidency, but he has had no ability to achieve them. This failure is inherent in his character that lacks charisma and social intelligence. Thus, he has not been in control and he won’t be; he has had no courage, and he won’t have shortly. In brief, he is immature and has no personal assets that permit to him to have appropriate psychological growth. As you know, people when they can't progress personally, they regress (please refer to Karen Horney in “Neurosis and Human Growth”. In other words, they become worse, more dysfunctional and consequently more evil. This particularly applies to immature people in power, because during their reign they become extremely entitled, arrogant, narcissistic, ruthless and paranoid (please refer to Eric Fromm in “Anatomy of Human Destructiveness”). Bashar is no exception. He by now believes that he was born to be president; even, he is the best of them all. He is the savior of Syria and probably the whole Arabic World (as his father used to believe). Do not think that for them these are empty words, they simply try to bluff us with. Not at all, these are deep beliefs in their minds; they are called in psychology self-delusions (please refer to Cordelia Fine in "A Mind of its Own"). However, he knows inside himself that without presidency he is nothing; nobody will respect him; nobody will glorify him; nobody will adore him. Therefore, do not count on him to quit the presidency merely for the sake of the country.
http://haytham-khoury2.blogspot.com/2011/07/response-to-national-initiative-for.html



Canadianforever
1 November 2011 12:16AM
Syria is not Libya and one cannot draw any comparisons between them. The fact of the matter is that NATO is salivating to bring down Syria's secular government, and divide the country in order to ensure the demise of anything Pan-Arabist. The benefit is long term security for Israel, the total liquidation of the Palestinian question, the elimination of the only Russian strategic presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, the installation of an extremist Salafi government that cannot be at peace with Shi'it Iraq (but would be of much use to Saudia's Wahhabis), the demise of Hizballah and Hamas (both considered terror Organizations by the West and resistance movements by the rest of the world).

Further, it will create an imperialist co-opted Sunni continuum between Turkey (a NATO servile Islamic country and a wannabe European one) and the rest of the Arab world. In a nutshell, the geostrategic importance of Syria is so critical to Imperialism's total hegemony over the entire Middle East so much so, that the strategic objectives of encircling Russia, China and the rest of South Asia/Eurasia including the emerging economies of India, Malaysia and Indonesia may not be achieved without bringing Syria to its knees. A long shot which, if attempted may bring NATO's scourge to a dreadful and costly end.




Arapas
1 November 2011 12:21AM
@ edwardrice 31 October 2011 10:58PM

DannySmith


What we do know now is the rebels put into power by Nato have turned out to be just as bad as the Gaddafi regime if not worse.

Sad, is not it. As long as NATO does not try to bite off more than it can chew, it will be OK.



Arapas
1 November 2011 12:29AM
@ Canadianforever 1 November 2011 12:16AM

the strategic objectives of encircling Russia, China and the rest of South Asia/Eurasia including the emerging economies of India, Malaysia and Indonesia may not be achieved without bringing Syria to its knees. A long shot which, if attempted may bring NATO's scourge to a dreadful and costly end.

From the above I take it that You do not know what nearly happened in 1988.

There is such thing as pre-emptive strikes, You know.



Raymond82
1 November 2011 12:33AM
,
The benefit is long term security for Israel, the total liquidation of the Palestinian question, .............

.......the installation of an extremist Salafi government that cannot be at peace with Shi'it Iraq (but would be of much use to Saudia's Wahhabis), the demise of Hizballah and Hamas (both considered terror Organizations by the West and resistance movements by the rest of the world).

Hezbollah might demise but what about Hamas or an even more radical Islamist groups. Surely Salafists would not make peace with Israel surely? They would drive the remaining Christians out of Lebanon losing leverage there. The whole region will be reshaped which will bring short term gains in the breaking up of Iran's influence and civil war deflecting attention from Israel but in the long term how is being surrounded by Sunni Islamists ever going to bring peace or stability

Syria is not Libya and one cannot draw any comparisons between them. The fact of the matter is that NATO is salivating to bring down Syria's secular government, and divide the country in order to ensure the demise of anything Pan-Arabist.

Pan Arabist movements also promote state ownership of oil which is probably also a large motivation , maybe greatest motivation for their removal

__________

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Ý Kiến- Phê Bình- Thảo Luận qua Nhận Định của Báo Telegraph_ "Syria: Assad's malign role"

Syria: Assad's malign role

Telegraph View: Father and son Assad have kept Syria politically oppressed and economically backward.


Syria's President Bashar al-Assad delivers a speech to his cabinet Photo: Reuters

By Telegraph View
7:46AM GMT 31 Oct 2011
15 Comments

The casual dress, the apparent absence of security around his suburban bungalow, a perfect command of English, the ability to laugh at himself: in his interview with The Sunday Telegraph, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria presented a disarming face. Yet he gave no indication of reforms which would begin to satisfy his people, more than 3,000 of whom have died since demonstrations against his regime erupted in March. Rather, with a nervous eye on what happened to Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, he warned that foreign military intervention in Syria would cause an earthquake across the region, resulting in "tens of Afghanistans". The message was clear: we will do things at our own pace, so back off.

Mr Assad is offering continuity, as against uncertainty were he and his government to fall. Yet it is worth remembering what this continuity entails. For over 40 years, father and son Assad have kept Syria politically oppressed and economically backward. Over the past seven months, that has escalated into the use of tanks and helicopter gunships against civilians and the contraction of an economy subject to an EU ban on oil exports and a collapsing tourist sector. Despite being a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Syria has tried to acquire nuclear weapons. As a supporter of groups such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hizbollah, it remains on the American list of state sponsors of terrorism.

And along with Iran, its only ally, it has played a malign role in neighbouring Lebanon.

That is the kind of continuity the Syrian people and the wider world could do without. Mr Assad's interview reveals a delusional state of mind common to those who have been in power for too long. Redemption for Syria will come only when he and his Alawite coterie are gone.


Related Articles

Assad: I won't waste my time with opposition - 30 Oct 2011
Assad interview: 'I live a normal life - that's why I'm popular' - 30 Oct 2011

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Showing 15 comments


kalam
Today 03:56 PM
I agree with Blackadder2

Islamists are waiting for Asad to fall, so those fanatical groups he banned, can come out and take control and introduce Sharia Law and persecute non-Sunnis, which are regarded by many Sunnis, as non-Muslims.

…it remains on the American list of state sponsors of terrorism.

According to leaked reports, friendly US Gulf Arab Countries like Kuwait, UAE and Saudi Arabia have generated funding for banned terrorist groups. So no action taken against these clowns and human rights abuses in those countries .



Blackadder2
Today 10:25 AM
The Assad regime is a typical Socialist regime for the region, brutal and economically backward, but it might be the least bad option for Syria.

Assad is like a man with a tiger - the Sunni majority - trapped in his living room. It is angry and it may well overwhelm him. He can strike it through the door, prod it and make it back off for a while. If he can contain it, it won't break out and kill his family and guests (the other Syrian minorities). We have all seen what happened in Iraq post-invasion, but that had an aggressive Sunni minority fighting the Shia, here 75% Sunni, if controlled by radicals, could be murderous for the Alawites, Shia, Christians and Druze.

The West seem to be saying "Let the Tiger out, he's quite cuddly" but they don't have to face the Tiger, for now.

This is not popular protest, it is an armed insurrection. Is it funded by Saudi elements? Does anyone ask who is paying for the uprising and getting them guns?


______ goldenrule
Today 12:46 PM
Why do so many western people assume Arabs are mere stupid puppets of demagogues who never learn? Unconscious racism? Assad's regime is using extreme torture and mass murder to try to stop the Arab Democratic Uprising overthrowing his totalitarian regime. The protesters come from all sections of Syrian society, but it is true most are Sunni. The protesters know that the regime is trying to defeat them by stirring up sectarian divisions. If Assad carries on with the current situation where mostly Sunnis are being tortured, raped and killed by mostly Shia Alawites, then this will lead to sectarian violence. Assad is creating the Sunni Tiger you speak of, but he will find he cannot deal with it. He calculates that Iran and Saudi will be drawn in, and his regime will be safe between the opposing forces. Also you must realize in Syria the wealthy families from all religions and the clergy have been bought by the regime. The Assad regime is the worst possible outcome for Syria and the region. It is worth repeating that young people are going to their graves and into torture chambers with the believe that people in democratic countries support their struggle. We must act as human beings, there is no choice.


____________ Blackadder2
Today 05:07 PM
It's not about assumptions about Arabs, but which people might come out on top. If an armed group leading an uprising seizes power, then it is possible (and perhaps likely) that it will impose its will on the population, as a State. Look at Iraq for inter-communal violence without a revolution, look at Lebanon, look at Israel/Palestine.

The problem for Syria is one where I would say "I wouldn't start from here" but they are where they are. The Syrian regime is a dreadful Cold War hangover, meddler in Lebanon, sponsor of terrorism and I wouldn't wish it on anyone. I think your Iran/Saudi duel is already happening. I want the softest landing for the Syrians, even the Chinese seem to want it sorting, which is heartening. What I fear is that in a revolution, the bloodthirsty get their way: Russia 1917, Spain 1936. The normal decent people always get caught up in others' battles.


____________ Fasdunkle
Today 04:26 PM
Do you think a new minted islamic theocratic state is better for Syria? Many Syrians will disagree with you.



wellbeloved
Today 10:15 AM
Assad must be sh!tting himself after watching gaddafi's end



______ toadbrother
Today 04:09 PM
And therein lies the problem. Assad is watching other regimes fall all around him, and knows that the bulls eye is painted on his forehead as well. At this point he has two choices; try to crush the uprisings or run.

But Syria is not Tunisia or Libya, nor even is it Egypt, where the Army permits one person or another to rule. Assad has a powerful friend in Iran, and Iran has beaten down a would-be Persian Spring successfully.

Beyond that, Assad knows full well that where no one in Moscow or Beijing gave a damn about Gaddafi, Damascus and its league with Tehran make this an entirely different situation. China and Russia will not readily permit this particular cabal's feathers to be ruffled, in large part because they, like the United States know very well that the road to Tehran begins in Damascus, that war upon Syria may very well create a conflagration far beyond what the modern Great Powers want.


______ Blackadder2
Today 12:40 PM
They made sure that Gaddhafi sh*t himself by sticking a knife up his bottom, it seems, the footage is out there.

Assad's position is much easier now, fighting to the death if it comes to it.



simon_coulter
Today 09:32 AM
Is Assad as conditioned as you would imply - or is he a man who had no choice but to accept the Fate his dynasty placed upon him - giving up the planned career of a mild and caring man as an ophthalmic surgeon - only when the first choice heir was killed.

Bashar al-Assad, if not the mere puppet figurehead of a wider ruling faction doing increasingly unpleasant things to retain power, surely now has to act with great autocratic harshness purely to survive in the situation he finds himself in.

If he was to tell the ruling clique he planned to announce that he was resigning and going into exile - would he leave the room alive - would pressures we don't know about be applied on him?

Bashar may indeed be a ruthless, self-motivated, deluded ruler - for whom nobody should make excuses, but I do wonder about that. In the end it looks as though he will go one way or another, because Syria is looking even more isolated than usual.

You want to say God-only knows what will succeed the Alawite cabal - but I suspect extremist followers of Allah have plans about that, as in the rest of the region.



haphaestus
Today 08:36 AM
I would love to see dismantling of Syrian state. However due to the rise of sharia law and the islamofascists governments in tunisia, Lybia and Egypt I am not so sure supporting the downfall of Assad is really in the wests best interests.It seems quite plausible that even worse human rights abuses will follow if Assad is overthrown (though I think too this is eventually inevitable).
Its a terrible delimma, one of damned if you do, damned if you dont. In light of this I am in favor of the west sitting this one out. Perhaps if Syrians have to go through the real work of a revolution (which will require all minorities to cooperate in more then just demonstrations), we will see a much greater respect for human rights when it is done.



______ hatebigots
Today 10:50 AM
For years people whined about supporting arab dictators was a fuel to sialmic extremism. Not helping the revolutions is bad now for these whining people, who just criticize.

You said lots of truths but I believe we must support the revolutionaries. My country was ruled by fascists who said "Commies will take over if we fall". When they fell, reds didnt took over.

I believe we should take risks & help them. If we have to deal with islamists... We deal with fascists, reds and arabian tyrants and they were beaten (are being beaten in last case). We could do that again. After all, how can violent irrational fanatics succeed in our times? Not very common today.



____________ haphaestus
Today 05:15 PM
the only way we will really know if the syrian people want the changes that come are if they achieve those results themselves



Sam Chuckie
Today 08:34 AM
'Redemption for Syria will come only when he and his Alawite coterie are gone.'

This article is sickening. The DT has become a cheerleader for genocide? I suppose Syria would be better off without Christians and Druze too? An Islamist couldn't have put it any better.

All Arab nations are economically backward with primitive economies. Without oil the few that are relatively wealthy would be incredibly poor. Syria's economic situation, which is better than Egypt's, cannot be blamed on Assad.

Does the DT believe that an Islamist regime which would replace schools with madrassas and stop women working will promote economic development and freedom?



______ goldenrule
Today 12:57 PM
Why assume Arabs are idiots? You must understand the Middle East is colonized internally and externally. The Arab Democratic Uprising is the century old reaction to this. Syria cannot continue as a corrupt dictatorship, where control if exercised by torturing children, or breaking spines as the Syrian Mukharbarat do in their "German Chairs". Syria is a country where religious leaders must be supporters of the regime to stay in office. What kind of Islam or Christianity is this? I suggest researching Syria and thinking of the golden rule. Reflect on "if I was Syrian what would I want?" Develop your imagination friend.



lobrio
Today 08:27 AM
At least if it should explode in Syria and there is another overthrow, the people of Lampedusa will not have to be concerned about even more diversity and enrichment of their proud society......too far and circuitous ! Not certain about our own porous shoreline though ! The MP for Peckham and Buck Rogers her parachuting compadre will be set to welcome them here for our enrichment I guess !

________________

What do you think ?

Các anh chị nghĩ thế nào về nhận định của Báo Telegraph "Syria: Assad's malign role" , đã cho rằng cả cha con của Assad (tổng thống Syria) đã và đang bám lấy chính sách đàn áp chính trị và đưa kinh tế Syria thụt lùi tụt hậu ?

Các anh chị có ý kiến phê bình gì thêm từ "15 Comments" của độc giả ?

Trong bài Nhận Định trên , báo Telegraph có đưa ra hai bài viết khác
_ Assad: I won't waste my time with opposition - 30 Oct 2011
_ Assad interview: 'I live a normal life - that's why I'm popular' - 30 Oct 2011


Một kẻ đang lãnh đạo đất nước, đang cầm quyền lại có thể cho rằng giải quyết những đòi hỏi của dân , những người dân không đồng ý với những sai trái của kẻ cầm quyền là phí thời gian, thử hỏi kẻ cầm quyền đó có còn xứng đáng tiếp tục cầm quyền ?

Khi người dân Syria đứng lên chống đối thì dùng bạo lực đàn áp, tù đày, bắt bớ, giam cầm, bắn giết, tàn sát không nương tay, những tên cầm quyền độc tài dã man như Assad có đáng cho dân Syria LẬT ĐỔ như Ben Ali, như Hosni Mubarak, như Gadhafi???

Bản chất bọn cầm quyền độc tài là tham quyền cố vị và dã man tàn bạo như nhau, không thua kém lòai ÁC THÚ .

NGÀY TÀN của những tên bạo chúa độc tài tàn bạo, những con ÁC THÚ dã man này rồi cũng sẽ Ô NHỤC như nhau .

Còn nữa, bè lũ phản quốc CƯỚP NƯỚC DIỆT CHỦNG BÁN NƯỚC Việt gian cộng sản VN cũng không ngọai lệ .



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conbenho
Tiểu Muội quantu
Nguyễn Hoài Trang
01112011

___________
CSVN là TỘI ÁC
Bao che, dung dưỡng TỘI ÁC là đồng lõa với TỘI ÁC

WORLD NEWS_ NATO Chief in Libya as 7-Month Mission Ends

October 31, 2011
NATO Chief in Libya as 7-Month Mission Ends
VOA News


Photo: AFP
Libyan interim Defence Minister Mohammed Dfeynas (R) welcomes NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen upon arrival at Tripoli airport on a surprise visit hours before NATO's air mission was due to end officially, October 31, 2011

NATO's top official has arrived in Tripoli for talks with Libyan authorities on the final day of the alliance's seven-month bombing campaign that helped the former rebels drive Moammar Gadhafi from power.

Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is holding talks Monday with Libya's National Transitional Council, including chairman Mustafa Abdel Jalil. His visit marks the first to Libya by a NATO secretary-general.

Rasmussen told the French news agency discussions will focus on Libya's expectations regarding possible future NATO assistance and the country's roadmap for a transition to democratic rule.

The alliance is set to end its mission in Libya at midnight, Monday Libyan time, after its air campaign to protect civilians under a U.N. Security Council resolution.

NATO formally decided to halt the mission after the U.N. canceled the mandate last week, though Libya's transitional leaders had urged NATO to continue until for a while because of security concerns.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says Libya faces a "huge challenge" to unify the country, and that leaders have a complicated political task ahead of them. But she told The Washington Post the United States and other countries have offered assistance, and will help Libya in any way they can.

Meanwhile, Libya's outgoing provisional prime minister, Mahmoud Jibril, confirmed Sunday the presence of chemical weapons in the country. He did not provide details on chemical weapons sites, but said representatives from international organizations are set to arrive later this week to take care of the issue.

Last week, the top U.N. envoy to Libya, Ian Martin, told the Security Council that previously undeclared chemical weapons sites had been found in Libya.

Provisional leaders declared the country liberated from the 42-year rule of Moammar Gadhafi during a ceremony on October 23. Officials have said they plan to form a new interim government within a month, followed by elections for a constitutional assembly within eight months. Parliamentary and presidential elections would be held within a year after that.

Some information for this report was provided by AP, AFP and Reuters.

Related Articles

NATO to End Mission in Libya Next Week


However, NTC leaders urged alliance to extend its mission until end of year to address security concerns



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conbenho
Tiểu Muội quantu
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01112011

___________
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Sunday, October 30, 2011

Vài suy nghĩ khi đọc bài viết "Hunt on for Libya's looted treasure"

Hunt on for Libya's looted treasure

Posted October 31, 2011 11:37:34


Photo: Some of the loot has turned up at a Benghazi souk. (AFP: Marwan Naamani )

Pieces from a huge collection of priceless ancient coins, jewellery and statuettes, looted from a bank vault in eastern Libya in the chaos of the rebellion against Moamar Gaddafi, have appeared in the local souk and are being taken abroad.


Related Story: Libya to try Gaddafi's killers as son flees
Related Story: Gaddafi buried in secret desert location at dawn
Related Story: Gaddafi body taken to rebel strongholdMap: Libyan Arab Jamahiriya


The cache of about 8,000 pieces was taken by thieves who chiselled into a concrete bank vault in Benghazi in the early days of revolutionary tumult after fire spread from an adjacent headquarters of the feared secret police.

Residents of the seaside neighbourhood say the bank was invaded by looters in February, when Benghazi rose up against Gaddafi's rule and triggered a revolt that spread nationwide.

Crowds stormed official buildings to free political prisoners, and some residents said a prison break nearby could have allowed hardened criminals to set upon the bank.

Ash and broken glass litter the Ottoman atrium of the building, the main branch of Libya's commercial bank. Its underground vaults remain open in eerie darkness, some holding neatly stacked records of transactions with Western financial houses.

"It's a disaster," said Yussuf ben Nasr, director of antiquities for the city, built on a site originally named Euesperides when founded by ancient Greeks in the 6th century BC.

A Reuters reporter found bronze coins stored in the back room of a jewellery shop in Benghazi's souk. The seller said the artefacts were "a secret." Asked about the value of the coins the dealer shrugged and said they were two millennia old.

When Reuters showed Mr ben Nasr photographs of the coins on sale in the souk, he said they were probably part of the collection.

"These are priceless national treasures, pieces of our history that have been lost," he said from his office, which he has converted into a safe house for antiques just a short walk from the gutted bank.

The stolen cache included rarer gold and silver coins embossed with Islamic calligraphy and verses of the Muslim holy book, the Koran.


Photo: There had been heavy fighting around the rebel stronghold of Benghazi during the nine month war. (AFP)


Spectacular ruins

The land that is Libya has been ruled by successive Mediterranean empires over the centuries and is home to spectacular Greek and Roman ruins that have been left largely unspoiled by modernity, far off the tourist track.

Experts say most Libyan antiquities survived the nine-month uprising unscathed, thanks to a mixture of luck and meticulous work by men like Mr ben Nasr, who has spent most of his time since February securing the north African country's history in crates like those now filling his office - much of it at his own expense.

The collection in the Benghazi bank, though, did not have the same luck.

"This is the biggest theft I am aware of," said Paul Bennett, a British archaeologist who specialises in Libyan antiquities. "The indications are that some of the finds are making their way into the souk."

Despite a police hunt involving the international police agency Interpol, part of the Benghazi cache has already started to leave the country, Mr ben Nasr said.

Statues from the vault have surfaced in neighbouring Egypt, and some of the 500 gold coins recently seen there may have been part of the lost trove.

"There's not much we can do except ask institutions around the world to help us acquire Libyan antiquities if they turn up, so they can be returned," he said, adding that Libyans living in Egypt had collected money to purchase a statuette of the love god Cupid found in a souk in Alexandria.


Days of toil

The collection stolen in Benghazi had already changed hands several times in the 20th century, much of it having been seized by officials from fascist Italy during World War II.

Taken as booty from territory that dictator Benito Mussolini considered part of his New Roman Empire, the artefacts were displayed in a colonial exhibition in Italy in 1940 before being returned to independent Libya in the 1960s.

Deep beneath the bank, a large vault in a trashed office remains shut, a chisel jammed between steel and centuries-old masonry testifying to failed attempts to pry it open.

But a floor above, a manhole-sized opening shows how thieves finally broke through the reinforced concrete ceiling - work that required either a jackhammer or days of toil by hand.

"Libya has had big problems with theft in the past before, and under Gaddafi many items mysteriously ended up in Switzerland," Mr ben Nasr said.

"Luckily we've had help from organisations there, who purchased them for us."

With museums in disrepair after years of neglect, and archaeological sites across the country largely unsecured, Mr ben Nasr has enlisted the police and even the Libyan Boy Scouts to track down missing antiquities, including recently discovered mummies from pillaged tombs in the south.

"We continue to search sites across the country, taking inventories of what is missing, and telling schoolchildren and the Boy Scouts about the missing treasure," he said.

"For now, archaeology here has become detective work."

Reuters

Topics: law-crime-and-justice, history, unrest-conflict-and-war, libyan-arab-jamahiriya

____________

"Trông người mà ngẫm đến ta"

Sẽ có một ngày quốc dân VN đồng đứng lên Xuống Đường, đồng tâm lên tiếng tố cáo TỘI ÁC PHẢN QUỐC CƯỚP NƯỚC DIỆT CHỦNG BÁN NƯỚC của bè lũ Việt gian cộng sản VN, xử tội lũ thú vật buôn nòi bán giống và hủy diệt đất nước, sẽ buộc lũ súc sinh chó đẻ Việt gian cộng phỉ này phải trả lại những tài sản chúng đã CƯỚP của dân VN, những bảo vật thuộc di sản của Tiền Nhân mà lũ mất dạy csVN đã CƯỚP làm của riêng hoặc bán ra ngọai quốc .

Bè lũ phản quốc bán nước cộng sản VN là lũ đại tội đồ của dân tộc VN có chạy Trời cũng không khỏi nắng .



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conbenho
Tiểu Muội quantu
Nguyễn Hoài Trang
31102011

___________
CSVN là TỘI ÁC
Bao che, dung dưỡng TỘI ÁC là đồng lõa với TỘI ÁC

WORLD_ Ex-Digger helps Gaddafi's son escape Libya

Ex-Digger helps Gaddafi's son escape Libya

October 30, 2011 - 11:48AM
THE AGE


Saadi Gaddafi, pictured in Sydney in 2005, is in Niger after fleeing Libya. Photo: Reuters

A former Australian soldier working as a private security contractor has admitted he helped late leader Muammar Gaddafi's son, Saadi, flee Libya last month as rebel forces took over Tripoli.

Saadi's longtime bodyguard, Gary Peters, has told Canada's National Post that he was part of a team that drove Gaddafi's third son across Libya's southern border to Niger.

Peters, an immigrant who is not a Canadian citizen but has permanent resident status, returned to Toronto in September, suffering from an untreated bullet wound to his left shoulder when the convoy was ambushed after crossing back into Libya.

"I'm not a mercenary," Peters told the Post, which said his account had been verified by several sources.

"I work for a person in particular, have done for years, for close protection. When we go overseas, I don't fight. That's what a mercenary does. Defend? Yes. Shoot? Yes. But for defence, for my boss, and that's what happened. The convoy got attacked and two of us got hit."

Peters said he had provided security services to Gaddafi family members since 2004, and continued to do so during NATO's campaign to oust the late dictator.

Though he worked mostly for Saadi, he also guarded Gaddafi's other sons, Seif al-Islam and Hannibal, and said he had escorted Hannibal and his sister, Aisha, from Libya to Algeria in a convoy.

Peters said he first met Saadi while serving in the Australian Army when Gaddafi's son was visiting the 2000 Olympics in Sydney and Peters was assigned to protect him.

After moving to Canada in 2002, Peters said he worked "on and off" for the next two years as a close protection operative for security contractor Blackwater USA, which was barred from Iraq over a deadly 2007 shooting and later renamed Xe Services.

Although Canada has enacted UN sanctions imposing an arms embargo on Libya, and frozen the assets of Saadi and other Gaddafi family members, Peters has not been charged with a crime.

"I broke no laws," he said. "But they have to investigate, which is fine."

Peters, who said he had spoken to Saadi by telephone since returning to Canada and planned to return to Niger this weekend, defended his boss.

"If he was a mass murderer, then obviously I wouldn't work for him," he said.

"The man's a gentleman, non-violent."

According to Peters, other members of Saadi's security team were from Australia, New Zealand, Iraq and Russia. He said they had all previously served as special forces.

He warned the fight in Libya was far from over, even after Gaddafi's death.

"Don't believe it's going to settle down because there are still three brothers there that are very, very angry. And three brothers that have a lot of money," he said.

"And they've still got that money. We just purchased, brand-new, three Land Rovers, bullet-proof. We paid cash for it. That means there's money around."

AFP

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/exdigger-helps-gaddafis-son-escape-libya-20111030-1mq21.html#ixzz1cIcSg55F



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Saturday, October 29, 2011

Ý Kiến- Phê Bình- Thảo Luận qua bài viết "Gaddafi's death: what next for the ICC?"

Gaddafi's death: what next for the ICC?

The ICC prosecutor may ask the Dutch forensic authorities to help verify Gaddafi's death
Comments (20)

Alison Cole
guardian.co.uk, Friday 21 October 2011 12.10 BST
Article history


ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo could ask the Dutch forensic authorities to confirm Gaddafi's remains Photograph: Peter Dejong/ASSOCIATED PRESS


Now it's been confirmed that Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has been killed, the case against him at the international criminal court (ICC) is over. But there are still legal steps to be taken.

How can Gaddafi's death be confirmed for the purposes of the ICC proceedings?

The ICC has previously faced circumstances where an indicted suspect died before arrest.

In the Uganda situation, Raska Lukwiya was indicted by the ICC on charges pertaining to atrocities in the Northern Uganda committed by the Lords Resistance Army (LRA). He was killed during battle with Ugandan government forces. Both the ICC prosecutor and the Ugandan government requested assistance from the Netherlands Forensic Institute of the Dutch Ministry of Justice to submit a forensic report confirming the human remains, as the person subject to the ICC arrest warrant. The Ugandan government cooperated in providing Lukwiya's death certificate. The judges found that "the purpose of criminal proceedings is to determine criminal responsibility and that the Chamber cannot exercise jurisdiction over a person who has deceased". Importantly, the judges noted that protective measures for witnesses and victims continue regardless of whether proceedings have been terminated.

Following this precedent, we can anticipate that the ICC prosecutor could repeat the same request to the Dutch forensic authorities.

Will the Libyan government do the same?
This begs the question: who is the Libyan government? The cooperation of the Libyan authorities is essential for securing access to Gaddafi's remains for forensic testing.

What happens if there is no cooperation and it is not possible to forensically verify the death of Gaddafi?

Again there may be some guidance from another case from the Ugandan situation. It is fairly commonly accepted that another ICC suspect, Vincent Otti, was killed by the leader of the LRA, Joseph Kony in 2007. However, unlike in the Lukiwya case, he is said to have died at an unknown location such that there was no access to his remains. As a result, there was no scope for cooperation in the collection of forensic evidence. For the Otti case, there is no publically available information of any pre-trial proceedings at the ICC similar to those in the Lukwiya case which officially confirmed Lukwiya's death and closed proceedings. As a result, Otti is still listed as "at large" on the ICC website.

Could this be replicated in Gaddafi's case?
It would be difficult to imagine that the ICC would persist with investigations in the face of official assertions, albeit without forensic verification by the Court, that Gaddafi has indeed died.

Although the death of Gaddafi ends the proceedings at the ICC, there are still two fugitives as a result of the ICC investigations into the events in Libya who must be arrested and transferred to The Hague. The question facing the ICC now is: where are Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi and Abdullah Al-Senussi.

***

Comments in chronological order (Total 20 comments)


monkey2
21 October 2011 12:22PM
Bush? Blair? Israel? Anyone other than an African despot? There is plenty of work the ICC could be getting on with



Youdonewrong
21 October 2011 12:26PM
The "Queen"



MayaWolfeRobinson
21 October 2011 12:28PM
Hi monkey2, sure, you've made your point that you think the ICC should be prosecuting others, but surely it is still a valid point to ask what happens if an indicted suspect dies before arrest?


monkey2
21 October 2011 1:12PM
@Maya

Fair enough. It may simply be that I have absolutely no respect for the ICC as an "independent" and "international" court. But you are right, that is probably a discussion that can take place another day.

I do wonder whether the ICC will look into the circumstances surrounding Gadaffi's death (it does look like he was summarily executed after having surrendered) and bring charges against anyone in the Libyan rebel forces who transgressed international law. I'd doubt it.


twincam
21 October 2011 1:37PM
So the west is not going to meddle in post gaddafi Libya, but starts off by interfering in a funeral rite.
Cool.
Apparently, everyone is equal under the law, so either investigate every death in the conflict, or none.
You could argue that.
They need proof hes dead ? Ask one of the blokes in the video which one shot him, then e-mail him.
O...they need forensic proof.....then in the e-mail, ask the bloke in the video to send over the blood stained shirt.
God,,, this will save millions and please the Greeks !
I mean,, come on ,,,bureaucratic nightmare......save the trees ! global warming and all that
Is gaddafi dead...yes
Was he killed by the blokes who captured him....yes
should they investigate....no...hes dead, and various fractions will probably try and blame each-other, thus casing more harm than good.
Now can we stop watching CSI miami



rubberneck
21 October 2011 2:20PM
Will Tony blair be attending the funeral ??


twincam
21 October 2011 2:38PM
@rubberneck

Will Tony blair be attending the funeral ?


Yes, apparently hes digging the grave,They had a shortage of labour.......mind you,,,we did for over a decade !



AlisonCole
21 October 2011 2:42PM
@Monkey2

I do wonder whether the ICC will look into the circumstances surrounding Gadaffi's death

When the death of an accused takes place whilst in custody at an international court, the court has jurisdiction to investigate the circumstances of the death. This took place when the former Serb President Slobodan Milosevic died in detention at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. The Khmer Rouge Court, shortly due to commence a joint trial against four elderly accused, also has procedures for the court to investigate deaths in custody.

Since Gaddafi was not in ICC custody, the court does not automatically have jurisdiction to examine the circumstances surrounding his death as a procedural matter.

However, as a matter of substantive law, Gaddafi's death took place during the conflict over which the ICC has jurisdiction through the Security Council Resolution 1970. The prosecutor has said that he would be looking into two aspects: firstly the alleged crimes within the initial weeks of the conflict, and secondly, the continuing crimes after February.

Since the killing of Gaddafi was not part of an attack against civilians because he was a member of the forces in conflict with the Transitional National Council, it is not possible to consider is death within the context of crimes against humanity. The most relevant area of international criminal law would therefore be war crimes under Article 8 of the ICC Rome Statue. For both international and non-international armed conflicts (depending on whether the judges would find that the air strikes internationalizes the conflict), a person taking part in hostilities is generally not protected under international law.



MayaWolfeRobinson
21 October 2011 2:50PM
@monkey2

Thanks for your reply. There is an ongoing debate to be had about the court and investigations it has/hasn't pursued and to what extent but let's see what the next prosecutor does. (Did you see this piece we ran last month on the recruitment process? Leading candidate seems to be Fatou Bensouda, so will be interesting to see if same criticisms are levelled re African states under African prosecutor.) But yes, conversation for another day.

ANYWAY, in response to whether the ICC will look into the circumstances surrounding Gadaffi's death, I don't think it's a job for them. Have a look at this:

On Friday, a spokesman for the UN high commissioner for human rights in Geneva said the shakily filmed mobile phone footage showing Gaddafi captured and alive but wounded, and then subsequently dead, was "very disturbing".

Rupert Colville said an existing UN panel investigating human rights abuses in Libya would probably examine Gaddafi's death.



MayaWolfeRobinson
21 October 2011 2:51PM
Ah there we go, @AlisonCole has already answered your question in a much more informed way than I have!


AldoZammitBorda
21 October 2011 5:00PM
@AlisonCole

"...a person taking part in hostilities is generally not protected under international law."

The above statement deserves qualification.

It is true that one of the basic tenents of International Huamnitarian Law (IHL) is that of 'distinction,' which differentiates between those actively taking part in hostilites and others, such as civilians and prisoners of war who are not actively taking part in hostilities.

However, IHL is also premised on the principles of 'proportionality,' 'necessity' and 'humanity,' and these principles would operate to protect even those actively taking part in hostilities, such as by prohibiting certain methods of warfare or by restricting the use of certain weapons which may be deemed to be excessively injurious. The statement that "a person taking part in hostilities is generally not protected under international law," is thus not a srictly correct statement of the law.

Moreover, as these comments relate to "Gaddafi's death," video footage appears to show that he was captured alive and detained as a prisoner of war, before being killed (somehow) in the hands of the NTC fighters. IHL is clear and unequivocal on the duties of protection owed to civilians, prisoners of war and persons rendered hors de combat. If, as some reports seem to indiacte, he was summarily executed by NTC fighters, this may amount to a serious and punishable breach of IHL.



monkey2
21 October 2011 5:19PM
@Maya and Alison

Thank you for your responses.

Alison, thank you for setting out the law in detail. You have done so before when I have previously raised my main issue with the ICC, in this previous thread.

Maya, sorry again the derail this thread but I think the Guardian at some point needs to deal with this salient issue head on, as it goes to the heart of our global legal hegemony. I have attempted to on my blog but I am no expert in the workings of the ICC, being just a domestic lawyer.



MayaWolfeRobinson
21 October 2011 5:46PM
@monkey2

Thanks for link to your blog, I'll check it out as soon as I get a chance. Think it's fair to say The Guardian has engaged with criticisms of the ICC in the past - did you read this recent piece when HRW's report on the ICC came out? It called for the court to bring additional cases and makes interesting reading. Or this piece which looks at a book entitled "The International Criminal Court: Europe's Guantanamo Bay?" Or this piece that looks at whether there's a case for bring Tony Blair before the court. And there are more.


AlisonCole
21 October 2011 5:48PM
@AldoZammitBorda:

IHL is clear and unequivocal on the duties of protection owed to civilians, prisoners of war and persons rendered hors de combat. If, as some reports seem to indiacte, he was summarily executed by NTC fighters, this may amount to a serious and punishable breach of IHL.

Thank you for providing this additional information. This is indeed what I had in mind what I used the term "generally" to point out that combatants in most circumstances are not protected from killing under international law during armed hostilities.

At this point in the analysis, the conclusion regarding the legality of Gaddafi's killing will depend entirely on the facts, as you point out.

For the ICC purposes, given that the investigation in Libya is on-going, for the prosecutor to seek an arrest warrant or a summons to appear on the basis of any factual allegation, the burden of proof is to show "reasonable grounds to believe" that a crime has been committed (Article 58 of the ICC Rome Statute).

However, the prosecutor can also decide not to move forward with the investigation should there not be a sufficient factual or legal basis, but also if prosecution is "not in the interests of justice, taking into account all the circumstances, including the gravity of the crime, the interests of victims [...]" (Article 53 of the ICC Rome Statute).


monkey2
21 October 2011 5:53PM
Maya

Thank you for those links. Surprised I missed them.

btw, the last post was not a plug


AldoZammitBorda
21 October 2011 6:17PM
@AlisonCole

Agreed.

I found the article informative, particularly the precedents therein.



Fatheek
22 October 2011 8:14PM
Appreciate the precedents discussed.
would consequences of the prosecution be considered if the ICC chooses to replicate the case?


Spedding
24 October 2011 9:56AM
Whatever the legal theory, the most the ICC will get is some form of statement as to how Gaddafi met his death and that will close the case.

Also, one suspects that there will not be any action taken against supporters of the Transitional Council. There remains an element of "victor's justice" where these international courts are concerned.


billj
26 October 2011 7:04AM
Are leaders of defeated regimes and rebel armies the only individuals entitled to investigation by the ICC? It seems that if a person was known to the world at large and in particular to those who pay for the setting up and day to day cost of running international tribunals then he [and it is usually "he"] is entitled to benefit from their existence and not suffer the fate of so many of those who crossed them whilst they held the reins of power.

Yet possibly hundreds of lesser known supporters of Colonel Gaddafi have been summarily executed with no prospect of their families finding out what happened to them through the offices of the ICC or other ad hoc forum set up for that purpose.



johnsexton
28 October 2011 10:47AM
Ridiculous article that illustrates the farcical nature of the ICC, NATO's bought-and-paid-for court. If the ICC wants to shed its dreadful reputation by the way, its next step should be simple. Prosecute those among the Libyan rebels responsible for racist killings of black people and the summary execution of prisoners - including of course Gaddafi. I don't advise anyone to hold their breath.

By the way, why does one Guardian journalist require another to back her up in this forum? Surely they should have better things to do.

____________

What do you think ?

Bài viết trên đây đã được lên Internet vào ngày 21-10-2011, chỉ 1 ngày sau khi độc tài Gadhafi bị giết sau khi bị lôi ra từ một ống cống, mà nhiều người đã nhận xét rằng Gadhafi đã kết thúc thời đại "đế vương" suốt 42 năm cầm quyền một cách thê thảm nếu không muốn nói là Ô NHỤC .

Hôm nay đọc bài viết này, xin "post" vào đây cho các anh chị chưa có dịp đọc, cùng đọc thêm cho biết .

Các anh chị nghĩ thế nào, có ý kiến phê bình gì qua bài viết "Gaddafi's death: what next for the ICC?" và 20 ý kiến phê bình từ "20 Comments" của đọc giả ?



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conbenho
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Nguyễn Hoài Trang
30102011

___________
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Friday, October 28, 2011

Ý Kiến- Phê Bình- Thảo Luận qua bài viết " The West should not have allowed Muammar Gaddafi to be murdered in cold blood"

The West should not have allowed Muammar Gaddafi to be murdered in cold blood

Actions against dictators and terrorist leaders like Osama bin Laden should be legal or we risk the consequences.


Anti-Gaddafi fighters look at the drain in Sirte where Colonel Gaddafi hid before his capture Photo: REUTERS

By Con Coughlin
9:08PM BST 27 Oct 2011
145 Comments

It is hard to feel much sympathy for Col Muammar Gaddafi, despite the fact that his end was gruesome even by the brutal standards of the Arab world. Now that the Libyan dictator has been laid to rest in his anonymous Saharan grave, we can safely discount the interim government’s initial assertion that he was killed by crossfire when his captors came under attack as they made their way to a hospital in Misurata. The grim truth is that Gaddafi was murdered in cold blood, after his captors had indulged in an orgy of violence against his defenceless person, including sexual assault. So much for the brave new world of democracy that David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy promised us once he had been removed from power.

Given Gaddafi’s well-documented support for international terrorism and his savage repression of his own people, the instinctive response of many of us will be that he had it coming. Moreover, the vengeful justice meted out by his captors means that we will be spared the discomfiting spectacle of Gaddafi standing trial for war crimes at the Hague, where embarrassing questions were sure to surface. Mr Cameron has had much sport at Tony Blair’s expense over his dalliance with the Libyan despot. But only last November, the Coalition sent a high-level military delegation to Tripoli to negotiate an arms deal: among the numerous items on Gaddafi’s shopping list were high-velocity sniper rifles.

Gaddafi’s demise is convenient for all concerned. Western leaders can sleep secure in the knowledge that their indiscretions will not be exposed, and the newly liberated Libyans can get on with the business of rebuilding their country, free from his baleful shadow. Who now cares that the killing of Gaddafi amounts to a war crime, and that the perpetrators should be brought before the International Criminal Court? That, after all, was the fate that awaited Gaddafi, had he survived the chaotic journey to Misurata, after his summary executions of anti-government protesters earlier this year.

Last night, the country’s new rulers suggested that Gaddafi’s killers would be put on trial. Let’s hope they’re as good as their word. For apparently, we find that the rebels have conducted their own summary executions. Apart from murdering Gaddafi and his son Mutassim, the rebels are accused of killing 53 loyalist fighters whose bodies were found in Sirte with their hands bound behind their backs and a single bullet wound to their heads. There are fears that hundreds more may have suffered a similar fate. Yet no one in London or Paris is making any serious demands that the perpetrators be called to account. All that really matters is that Gaddafi’s regime is history, and that the task of rebuilding Libya can now begin in earnest.

A similar disregard for the norms of international justice was evident last May, with the assassination of Osama bin Laden. The testimony subsequently provided by the team of US Navy Seals that carried out the daring raid on his hideaway in Pakistan demonstrated unequivocally that they had no interest in capturing the world’s most wanted man. From the moment they landed at his Abbottabad lair, they had a single objective – to kill bin Laden. As with Gaddafi’s death, no one questioned whether President Obama, who personally sanctioned the “kill” mission, had acted illegally. What counted was that bin Laden was no more, and the world was a far better place without him.


Related Articles

UN ends mandate for Nato operations in Libya - 27 Oct 2011
Libya rulers vow to prosecute Gaddafi killers - 27 Oct 2011
Tunisia frees former Libyan PM Al-Baghdadi Ali al-Mahmoudi - 27 Oct 2011
Libya: stockpiles of chemical weapons found - 27 Oct 2011
North Korea bans citizens working in Libya from returning home - 27 Oct 2011
Libya: Saif Gaddafi 'trying to broker surrender deal' - 26 Oct 2011


Another example of the West’s growing appetite for extra-judicial killing was evident in the recent drone attack in Yemen that killed Anwar al-Awlaki, the al-Qaeda mastermind behind a number of plots, including the infamous underwear bomb in Detroit in late 2009. On this occasion, questions were raised about the mission’s legality, not least because the victim happened to hold American citizenship. But the human rights lobby’s assertion that Mr Obama had broken the law by ordering the assassination of a US citizen made little headway against the majority view that a significant threat to America’s national security had been eliminated.

Indeed, so long as human rights activists seem more concerned with upholding the interests of terrorists at the expense of governments trying to protect their citizens from attack, public support for such extra-judicial killings will only increase. In Britain, the Home Secretary was recently forced to release two British Taliban suspects after they were apprehended by an SAS team in Afghanistan. The two were accused of planning bomb attacks against Britain, but were released when human rights lawyers threatened to challenge the Government’s actions in the courts. Theresa May had no alternative other than to let them go.

Cases such as this make the argument for increased drone strikes against terrorist targets all the more attractive. As one senior security official told me: “What’s the point risking your life to capture these people, if they’re going to be set free within a few days?” The public’s tacit support for summary justice is reflected in its unquestioning acceptance of the killings of pariahs such as Gaddafi and bin Laden.

Sadly, it could also lead to more trouble in the years to come. As we know from Guantanamo, the failure to observe proper legal procedures can become a gift horse for the human rights lobby, with a number of former British detainees having recently become millionaires as a result of their detention.

When it comes to taking out the bad guys, I fully support the heroic efforts of all those involved in tackling terrorists and rogue dictators. But I also want us to make sure that all the actions we take are legally justified. Otherwise, we are storing up a multitude of problems for the future.

________

Showing 1-25 of 184 comments

spudeater
29 minutes ago
Tony Blair and George Bush are terrorists. Killing them should be legal.


pilotwhale
30 minutes ago
In relation to the Bin Laden killing the Americans could easily have just fired a drone missile at the house Bin was staying in. But instead the Americans sent in special forces who risked their lives in order to capture or kill Bin Laden. The reason, I believe, they went in was to ensure that they really got him, dead or alive. A drone strike would just mean Bin's allies on the ground could just hide the body and then say he survived the strike and got away.
Bin Laden himself would have known that an armed assault on his compound would in all liklihood lead to his death. That was a situation of his own making, of course.
If one remembers the aftermath of the Madrid train bombings in 2004, the Spanish police went into an appartment to arrest the culprits only for one of them to set off a bomb which killed all the culprits and a policeman. This would have been the very possible situation for the American special forces who attacked Bin laden. In the room next door to him there could have been a terrorist on permanent stand-by ready to press a button at the first shouted command by Bin Laden. No wonder the mission ended in shots being fired. Bin Laden's death was almost merciful compared to what happened to Gaddafi.
If Gadaffi had been killed in a Nato air-strike the UN might not have complained. The UN must bear in mind the victims over 40 years of the Libyan dictatorship before demanding an investigation into the circumstances of any one person's death. And they must bear in mind recent European history: Mussolini was also brutally killed.


Mastro63
53 minutes ago
This was a very dirty war and the end should not be a big surprise.

I think the killers should get a big sentence- then get quietly pardoned after a few years.


uberwest
Today 06:06 PM
We are not responsible for the depravity of those people


_______ mrmchenry
55 minutes ago
and exactly how are they different from the killers of Bin Laden?


nest
Today 04:48 PM
The unemployment benefit in Libya at Kaddafi was 730 dollars.
The salary of the nurse – 1000 dollars.
Newly married were given 64 thousand dollars on apartment purchase.
On opening of personal business the single help – 20 thousand dollars.
education and medicine - free.
store system for large families with purely symbolical prices for the basic foodstuff.
FOR the FAKE of MEDICINES - the DEATH PENALTY
The rent was absent.
Payments for the electric power for the population weren't
loans for purchase of cars and apartments in Libya were … interest-free!GASOLINE cost cheaper than WATER! One liter of gasoline – 0,14 dollars.And now think people, who needed the revolution and wanted to kill Gaddafi


Jack Sinclair
Today 03:44 PM
What it boils down to is that the UN mandate was to enforce a no fly zone.

Instead we got:

A central bank tied to the international debt system;

NATO taking sides in a civil war and bombing civic infrastructure and civilians who flew the wrong flag;

Qatari special forces pretending to be rebels for Al-Jazeera while US and European special forces with paler complexions hid behind the cameras;

An interesting tactical alliance between NATO and Al-Qaeda affiliates;

Lynchings and beheadings;

The beating, sodomising and execution of the leader of one faction of the civil war thus ensuring a tribal blood feud;

The return of Sharia law to replace Muslim socialism;

The lessons that when in doubt, Russia and China should use their vetos and other emerging powers should get WMDs as soon as possible or be hanged like Saddam or be beaten and sodomised like Gaddafi;

"Humanitarianism" becoming a curse word.

Good call Cameron and Sarko. The oil better be worth it.



sophocles
Today 03:29 PM
Did the west have any say in the death of Gadaffi, was the west given an honest response to where Bin Laden was by Pakistan, the answer to both is no so natural reaction and action took over, most people who suffered under Gadaffi would have shot him, the same applies to Bin Laden, sometimes it is necessary to take extraordinary action when dealing with people like these because that is the only way to deal with it.


lordbarnett
Today 02:57 PM
Hague and Cameron should be put on trial,they started it.


lobrio
Today 03:44 PM
Lord : Correct ! It was none of our business ! With a little luck though, the more guilty of all Gadaffi's sons will survive to tell his tale in The Hague ! I also hope that he sings like a canary if he gets there, about the association between his father and Blair and co !




random_observer_2011
Today 02:44 PM
No one wept for Mussolini, whose dictatorship was arguably less bad for his people and whose method of waging war against the Allies at least involved open warfare. Qaddafi should not have had any better treatment.

You make your bed, you lie in it. You choose to seize power and rule extra-legally and through murder and terror, you earn the same if you are fool enough to weaken at the end. There have been plenty of genuine constitutional, legitimate rulers who paid horrible, and by this standard undeserved prices at the hands of revolutionary desperadoes like uncle Moammar.

There is a better case to be made that we in the west were better with him than what is to follow. But once we committed to his overthrow, he ceased to be a potential ally. We might as well remember the menace he was to us in the 1980s, and the vermin he always was, and celebrate with his enemies. He was a nice shade of blue.



Hamolinadir
Today 02:31 PM
the west , so-called, would have had to find the bugger to provide him with a body guard, but who says who allows what in Libya? you did not think it through Coughlin.



jeremiah
Today 02:08 PM
Since Colonel Qadhafi is still alive this article is moot. However the issue of extrajudicial killing by the Americans and the NATO countries for political purposes is bound to eventually lead to war crimes trials for all the leaders of these criminal adventures.

Though the mills of God grind slowly, yet
They gring exceeding small;
Though with patience He stands waiting,
With exactness grinds he all. (Longfellow)


______ Hamolinadir
Today 02:35 PM
you, 'personally', have seen him alive and breathing have you?

if not, don't talk bollox


____________ jeremiah
36 minutes ago
Why is it that being confronted with a contrarian point of view so many readers at the DT dissolve into personal abuse?

For that matter have you ever seen Colonel Gadhafi in the flesh dead or alive? Have you ever seen videos that have been created by psyops to fool the gullible?

We each of us use different means to ascertain as best we can the truth of a matter. We are all dependent upon our sources of information and we must decide whom to believe and whose information to reject. This is elementary.

Here is an article that will spell out the view that I personally hold to be true: http://mathaba.net/news/?x=629...

I doubt that you will believe it but the website itself is a source of good information.

Also here is a short compendium of quotes on how the controlled media (like the DT) are used to channel lies to their readers, lies that benefit the agenda of the intelligence services serving the ruling elites. http://wiki.mathaba.net/Media

Now, here is a list of reading for you to get up to speed on the most recent example of the perfidy of our titular leaders:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/i...
http://www.globalresearch.ca/i...
http://globalresearch.ca/index...
http://globalresearch.ca/index...

The most recent canard I believe is that Saif al Islam Qadhafi is negotiating to surrender himself to the ICC. My information would suggest this to be another lie. These people cannot help lying, it is their nature. Let us see.



Benjaminus Carmonius
Today 01:56 PM
Astounding piece of journalism, as always !



orraquine
Today 01:55 PM
Fighting is by its nature, out of control and brutalizes those who carry it out. Who could possibly have prevented this lynching?
Remeber what happened in Romania to Ceaușescu?


______ Hamolinadir
Today 02:37 PM
agreed, but shooting surely, lynching requires a rope. Coughlin is a bit dim.


lordlondon
Today 01:41 PM
Utter and complete garbage! As if "The West" had police forces all over Libya to protect Gaddafi from rebel attack under chaotic conditions of warfare!

Why does THE DAILY TELEGRAPH publish such nonsense



Hamolinadir
Today 02:38 PM
one can't argue with that.



seanchi
Today 01:27 PM
What sanctimonious rot. Would you have shot Hitler or any of his cohorts given the chance.
A trial would only have delayed the inevitable.
Gaddafi was guilty of the torture and murder of the Libyan people, on a grand scale.
His son declared on television that they would kill every Libyan citizen, rather than surrender power, which was a declaration of war, ergo when at war and you see an enemy with a gun you shoot him.
Gun or no gun I would have shot him


______ Hamolinadir
Today 03:21 PM
have you 'personally' seen any concrete evidence of all you allege?

or do you just credulously believe hearsay?if you don't know for_a_fact from your own knowledge and experience, keep your mouth shut.



billyrawmone
Today 01:26 PM
Exactly how do you suppose his very welcome disposal could have been prevented, you idiot?



Vaestgoete
Today 01:24 PM
I find it hard to believe Cameron and Sarkozy could have had any say in the matter. The rebels didnt look as if they had a direct line to no 10 and judging from interviews at the scene they wouldnt have understood much if they had.



Benjaminus Carmonius
Today 01:19 PM
"savage repression of his people"
How do you know? you were there?
Con, you speak like an ignorant fool. Yours are the rantings of a madman. You deserve no audience.

_____________

What do you think ?

Các anh chị nghĩ thế nào, có ý kiến phê bình gì qua bài viết "The West should not have allowed Muammar Gaddafi to be murdered in cold blood" cũng như "Actions against dictators and terrorist leaders like Osama bin Laden should be legal or we risk the consequences." và 25 ý kiến phê bình trong số "184 Comments" của độc giả ?

Những người VN BỊ MẤT NƯỚC vào tay bè lũ phản quốc CƯỚP NƯỚC DIỆT CHỦNG BÁN NƯỚC ĐỘC tài ĐỘC đảng Việt gian cộng sản VN học được thêm bài học gì qua Cuộc Cách Mạng LẬT ĐỔ cầm quyền ĐỘC tài ở Bắc Phi và Trung Đông ?

Có những "bình lọan gia" cứ mở miệng là "đấu tranh ôn hòa bất bạo động" với những luận điệu mà conbenho thấy, nghe rõ ràng họ đã tự nhiên nhổ ra liếm vào khi đề cập tới sự sụp đổ của 3 tên độc tài Ben Ali, Hosni Mubarack và mới đây nhất là Gadhafi với ngày tàn trong Ô NHỤC .

Những "bình lọan gia" này đã trở thành những con vẹt, không biết phân biệt PHẢI QUẤY, nhắm mắt nói càng mà cũng có không ít những kẻ vểnh tai ra nghe và cũng lập đi lập lại như vẹt không kém .

Cái THÓI hèn hạ đội thù, nô tài vọng ngọai đã ăn sâu vào cốt tủy khiến cho những kẻ bị MẤT NƯỚC mà KHÔNG BIẾT NHỤC, bị kẻ thù chà đạp trên đầu dân tộc mà KHÔNG BIẾT ĐAU, còn hảnh diện làm tôi đòi cho ngoại bang, ăn theo nói leo mà KHÔNG BIẾT HỔ THẸN .

Càng có nhiều "trí đủ" và "sĩ đờ" như thế, chả trách đất nước thân yêu của chúng ta đã và đang khốn đốn, bị lũ súc sinh csVN phanh thây xẻ thịt cho ngọai bang, đồng bào ruột rà của chúng ta đã và đang khốn nạn NHỤC NHẰN nô lệ, bị chà đạp dưới bàn chân bè lũ phản quốc BÁN NƯỚC csVN suốt 37 năm qua vẫn chưa thể đứng dậy nổi .



Chân thành cám ơn Quý Anh Chị ghé thăm "conbenho Nguyễn Hoài Trang Blog"
Xin được lắng nghe ý kiến chia sẻ của Quý Anh Chị trực tiếp tại Diễn Đàn Paltalk:
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conbenho
Tiểu Muội quantu
Nguyễn Hoài Trang
28102011

___________
CSVN là TỘI ÁC
Bao che, dung dưỡng TỘI ÁC là đồng lõa với TỘI ÁC