A renewed battle for the west of Libya could end the month-long stalemate in the struggle between Colonel Gaddafi's ugly regime and the rebels fighting for control.
By Nick Meo, Tripoli
7:30PM BST 11 Jun 2011
82 Comments
In the Jebel Nafusa mountains southwest of Tripoli, lightly-armed mountain farmers drove Gaddafi forces out of a string of villages - some of which had refused bribes to support the Libyan leader - forcing them to retreat to within 60 miles of the capital.
In Misurata, emboldened rebels prepared to break out of the enclave where they had been besieged for weeks by launching a series of probing attacks on Zlitan, the next town to their west.
On Saturday, in a move that startled the government, rebel forces began an assault on the oil port of Zawiya, halfway between the Tunisian border and the capital - leading to the first major fighting in the city since opposition forces there were crushed by Gaddafi troops in March.
The coastal road towards Zawiya from the capital was blocked by soldiers and loyalist gunmen with assault rifles, rushing to prevent the rebels from pushing further east.
There were rumours that government forces were preparing their own onslaught on the rebel-held border town of Wazin, and Gaddafi troops continued to bombard Misurata in an effort to throttle the rebel breakout, killing 31 in a single day on Friday.
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But the rebels confidently hope that eventually they will be able to push into Tripoli, Gaddafi's capital city, where key military targets are being pounded daily by Nato warplanes in their heaviest blitz since the air campaign began.
All over Western Libya – where the uprising was crushed brutally in March – there were signs that the rebels are taking the initiative. They hope that, with Nato's backing, they will soon wear down Gaddafi's forces and eventually bring down his regime.
The effect of the bombing in Tripoli last week has been extraordinary. There are no warning sirens, no drone of approaching aircraft, no whistle of falling bombs or hammering anti-aircraft fire. Instead for an instant there was unearthly moaning from the warplanes flying high over the city and then sudden huge explosions, terrifyingly loud. They lit up the Tripoli night sky with blinding flashes of light followed by shock waves which shook buildings and rattled windows for miles around.
"At first it was horrible for the children when the Nato bombs started falling, but they have got used to it a bit now," said one middle-aged man in a hurried exchange outside a grocery shop on Thursday morning after another sleepless night of bombardment. He had the hollow-eyed look of most of the exhausted population.
Great booms were still sounding out as jets flying at will over the Libyan capital of two million people pounded more targets on the outskirts, although like everyone else on the half-empty streets the man hardly flinched as bombs exploded in the distance.
"I don't think we will have to put up with this much longer - there will be a change soon," he said with a grin, hurrying away before anyone saw him chatting to a foreign journalist.
His heavy hint that he believed Colonel Gaddafi will soon be gone came after a week of the most intense air attacks since Nato's campaign began three months ago and multiplying predictions that the end is nearing for the Brother Leader.
There were signs everywhere that everyday life was becoming tougher under the Colonel's fraying rule.
Petrol now costs £3.50 a litre, compared to 13p a year ago, food is still plentiful but prices have rocketed to levels never seen before, and random, unexplained gunshots ring out in the city at night. Many of those who can afford to have packed up their possessions and children into their family saloon cars and fled 100 miles to the safety of Tunisia; some 6,000 crossed on Wednesday alone after Nato launched 157 air attacks in 24 hours.
They don't fear the extraordinarily accurate bombing raids so much as the prospect of a looming, bloody denouement to Gaddafi's 41-year rule.
All week Western leaders have ramped up their rhetoric about the end being near, perhaps seeking to scare Gaddafi out of power. The bombing strategy hasn't been so much shock and awe as a slow, psychological process of dropping giant bunker-buster bombs on the Libyan leader's fortified compound night after night, even though it is highly doubtful that he is in there.
In the early hours of Friday three fell in the centre of the capital where his Bab Al-Azizia compound is located, probably 2,000-pound EV Paveway III bombs. Even two miles away it feels like a minor earthquake.
"What we've been seeing is a psy-ops campaign in action," said David Hartwell, an analyst for IHS Janes. "We've been hearing Gaddafi is about to fall for several months now. In truth it is very difficult for anyone to know how close the regime really is to collapse, although when it does come it could be very sudden."
The Colonel still has plenty of devoted supporters in the capital - perhaps almost half its population, according to some estimates.
"Those Nato bastards are dropping bombs on us again," one young man said bitterly. "They are trying to kill Colonel Gaddafi, our leader." It was heartfelt anger, not the rehearsed sort wheeled out by government officials for television cameras.
Another sign of support was the hundreds of green flags fluttering from rooftops in western Libya, many on bullet-scarred buildings from recent fighting; it would have looked like a more spontaneous show of support if the flags and flagpoles hadn't all been exactly the same size.
Unlike rebel-held Benghazi in the east, where they never stop talking to you, nobody in Tripoli wants to discuss politics with a foreigner. Posters of Col Gaddafi are stuck up in every shop, making it look as if he has massive support. One shopkeeper, who looked like a supporter with three pictures of the Colonel in his window, only grunted and avoided eye contact when asked about the leader.
His people have hardly seen him for months, only occasional snatches on television of him meeting supporters in windowless rooms or brief audio tapes of ranting defiance.
By now his remaining followers really do need to love him, as he insists they do, if they are to believe the Brother Leader still has a future.
Col Gaddafi last week once again rejected the option of stepping down but there was a frightening new dark edge to his rhetoric. "Martyrdom is a million times better," he declared. "We welcome death."
Thereis little way to be sure how much force he still commands. His air force was blown up on the runway by Nato's air campaign in March and his pitiful navy was sunk at anchor. Nato estimates it has destroyed 40 per cent of his tanks and much of the logistics and support units needed to keep an army fighting.
Col Gaddafi probably still commands between 10,000 - 20,000 men, including highly-trained soldiers with elite security units, and many mercenaries as well as militias. Their morale may not be high; last week The Sunday Telegraph saw tired, sullen-looking militia men slouching at dozens of checkpoints on the way from Tunisia to the capital.
His irregular forces are an unknown quantity; but they may play more of a role in the war from now on. Last week Libyan television showed tribesmen from the town of Tawargah, armed by Gaddafi, on their way to fight the Misrata rebels.
"This is a very worrying development," said Noman Benotman, a Libyan analyst now based in London. "Setting tribe against tribe could lead to bloodletting and civil war." Mr Benotman, who once fought against the Libyan regime before renouncing violence, said he believed that the last chapter of Gaddafi is unfolding. "But I believe he may still have enough manpower to keep him in the war for months yet," he said.
There is enough food for six months and enough money too, according to Libyan officials. Billions were frozen abroad when the February uprising was brutally attacked, but Libyan officials insist the small-scale fighting does not cost much. Libya's borders are still open, and The Sunday Telegraph saw loaded with flour and fruit driving in from Tunisia last week. But most trade was done by sea, and the nation is effectively blockaded.
Fuel is in desperately short supply. Little if any oil is being produced and although the one rundown refinery can produce just enough power station fuel to meet present electricity needs, it can only manufacture enough petrol to fill the tanks of 6,000 cars a day.
The Sunday Telegraph also saw soldiers breaking up a fight at a petrol station between drivers, some of whom had probably queued for more than 24 hours. Bicycles have become a prized commodity.
Inflation is high, the dinar has devalued by 40 per cent since the crisis began, and the Central Bank has limited Libyans to withdrawing 500 dinars (£340) a month from their accounts. It spells economic trouble, though not yet crisis.
John Hamilton, a contributing editor at the African Energy newsletter, said the real test may be in August, when the weather is at its hottest and refrigerators and air conditioning units are flat out.
"At the present rate, the real crunch time won't come until the summer, which is when life is always hardest in the Arab world because of the heat," he said.
But despite everything, the Libyan government maintains a front of blustering confidence. "The regime is stronger now than when Nato started bombing," insisted Mahmoud Hamza, a senior official. "When you are attacked in a war people stand with the leadership."
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Showing 25 of 81 comments
Snakys
Today 08:39 AMRecommended by
1 person Gadaffi is slowly being surrounded.
His last possible exits will soon disappear.
He is done with no way out.
bnarpalvr
Today 09:01 AMAnd I hope even from beyond the grave he will strike out at those leaders who brought him down.
57nomad
Today 09:20 AMRecommended by
1 person The only thing he's going to do beyond the grave is to continue to be dead.
bnarpalvr
22 minutes agoWe shall see but if I was him I would already have made the arrangemenys & the payment.
57nomad
Today 08:31 AMRecommended by
2 peopleQaddafi murdered a British police woman, be blew up a disco frequented by American GI's and he blew up Pan Am 103 over Scotland and killed everyone on the plane and some on the ground. We don't need any other reason than those to bring down his regime and string him up if we capture him.
The hell with the UN resolution and to hell with fighting with one hand tied behind our backs and to hell with the mealy mouthed pronouncements. The war would end quicker if our leaders said something like, "we are out to kill him and we won't stop until we do. Protecting Libyan civilians is a side benefit but our main intention is to have the head of M. Qaddafi on a pike outside of NATO Hq and if that bothers you, tough luck." People in that part of the world understand that language and it makes it easier for them to chose which side they want to be on
bnarpalvr
Today 09:06 AM"Qaddafi murdered a British police woman, be blew up a disco frequented by American GI's and he blew up Pan Am 103"
.
But why wait 20+years to do it???
It suits someone to do it now???????
Why?
57nomad
Today 09:12 AMRecommended by
1 person It doesn't make any difference why. People get punished all the time for crimes they committed in the past. But still, you aren't getting the point. We don't need any other reasons and we don't need to explain ourselves. Plus it's a good lesson for others that may seek to emulate him, you fuck with the bull and you get the horns.
bnarpalvr
Today 09:19 AMOh but it does, if Gaddafi had been dealt with 20 years ago you would not find any oppositon to his demise.
This also comes after Bliar & e.u president Rumpy pumpy where seen hugging him?? WTF you think Bliar went to Libya without permission?? NO
Something stinks!
57nomad
54 minutes agoRecommended by
1 person So what? The only thing that counts is that he has our blood on his hands. That's it. Nothing else matters. He killed our people and now we are going to kill him. It's not complicated at all.
deep_dish
Today 08:40 AMRecommended by
1 person and he blew up Pan Am 103 over Scotland
No, he almost certainly did not.
bnarpalvr
Today 09:00 AMBut he may have done in revenge for the killing of one of his own along with 100 others in the US air raid in 1986.
57nomad
Today 09:19 AMRecommended by
1 person The air raid in in 1986 was in response to his blowing up the disco. You aren't getting the picture here. We don't care why he did it, we only care that he did it. We couldn't care less about his motivations, perceptions, psychological ruminations, nothing, nada, we don't care at all. He killed our people and now we're going to kill him. It's not that complicated.
bnarpalvr
Today 09:22 AMI am well aware of the trail of events but there is something else going on here and the US is not really that involved in this this is a cammoron & sarkozy thing!
57nomad
52 minutes agoRecommended by
1 person Really? Who shot the 120 cruise missiles at him? Without continuing American support the NATO effort would come to a halt in a week.
bnarpalvr
33 minutes agoYes quite Obama started the US off down that road, and it was looking as tho the US would be fully involved but all of a sud it nearly ground to a halt. The US support of NATO is the only reason it is continuing because without it NATO would have had to retreat. Gates remarks over other NATO countries not pulling their weight is long long overdue altho now I fear these rematks may have been made with the intention of promoting an e.u army.
Snakys
Today 08:48 AMRecommended by
1 person So you are so certain that he did not even though most even in the Gadaffi circle have practically admitted it
57nomad
Today 08:45 AMRecommended by
2 peopleYes he did. You are mistaken and its long past time for that murdering bastard to pay for that crime.
45south45
Today 08:05 AMRecommended by
1 person vernier
I agree with most of your comments regarding the past but I see a new road being embarked upon by the international community now. I see them realising their responsibilites and rethinking their old complacency. Let's rejoice in that and encourage it!
TheBoggart
Today 08:01 AMRecommended by
4 peopleAnd what of Syria, where the government is not only slaughtering its own people but destroying olive groves, killing farm animals and torching the fields?
No oil in Syria or Zimbabwe or Burma.
vernier
Today 07:45 AMRecommended by
1 person The real problem.
We allow nascent dictatorships to flourish,
grow rich, slaughter the innocent.
Let us remember that the so called "Arab Spring" had
two primary causes. Decades of unrelenting butchery
of the people by the dictators. The flower seller in Tunisia provided the 'last straw' catalyst.
The key problem now as demonstrated in Syria is, the regime dictator has more than enough firepower to brutalise sections of the population.
In Syria and libya for example the troops are exhorted to rape all and sundry women. Cut off electricity and water supplies. Snipers on rooftops randomly kill innocent civilians.
This is why we need a REAL UN.
An organisation that does keep and enforce the peace.
Not decades after a dictatorship has ruled but at
its genesis.
Example: in 2,000 when Mugabe rigged the election in Zimbabwe UN should have removed him and his corrupt cronies.
Gaddafi should never have been allowed to come to power.
In Syria the murderous son, Bashar Assad, should not have been allowed to take power from his butchering father.
Because the UN has always been in effete, castrati mode we now have dictatorships that have been entrenched for decades.
deep_dish
Today 08:16 AMRecommended by
1 person The Arab Spring is being put down, with the help of the Western Governments who are serving the Corporations that do not want democracy to flourish anywhere. Too much money involved.
Democracy is dangerous. Give them democracy and they'll start to get the idea that the revenue from their resources could and should be used for the benefit of their own countries and that must be stopped in its tracks.
jeanshaw
Today 06:57 AMRecommended by
4 peopleInterestingly last week when OPEC decided not to up oil production they also reconfirmed that Gaddafi's Government was the legitimate representative for Libya, the rebel repesentative who attempted to take Libya's seat was ignored.
Robert Gates in his speech re the dull and dismal future of Nato thank 4 smaller nations for their help in the war against Gaddafi i.e Norway , Denmark ,Belgium and Greece whilst condemning the inaction of bigger countries. Norway has now announced that by 1st August it will withdraw from the campaign.
Cameron/Sarkozy are likely to win in the end but at what cost in terms of lives ( Libyan ) , of fighting an aerial war and armaments generally( British and other taxpayers) and finally of putting the final nail in the coffin of Nato which is now shown to be total sham because there is no longer the unifying factor of the Cold War to keep members together .
deep_dish
Today 08:18 AMRecommended by
3 peopleThe American's remarks about NATO were outrageous.
"the cost of propping up smaller powers operations in Afghanistan and Libya" - completely ignoring the fact that it was the US who led the Afghan invasion and that nothing like the Libya campaign happens without US permission.
Their arrogance is breathtaking.
bnarpalvr
Today 09:07 AMGates remarks where said to give the e.u the excuse to form an e.u army.....
EnglishMadness
Today 06:11 AMThe Libyan Army must have cloaking devices.
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