WORLD_ SYRIA_ On Iran and Syria, Diplomatic Tests Intertwine

LISTENING POST

On Iran and Syria, Diplomatic Tests Intertwine

By MARK LANDLER
Published: December 19, 2013
The New York Times


WASHINGTON — Early next year, the Obama administration will embark on an extraordinary diplomatic doubleheader, trying to negotiate a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran while seeking yet again a political end to nearly three years of civil war in Syria.

The United States has strictly segregated the Iranian nuclear talks from the diplomatic efforts to end the bloodshed in Syria. But the two are more closely connected than the White House cares to admit — and not just because both sets of negotiations are likely to be conducted on the shores of Lake Geneva. Success or failure in each could heavily influence the other.

Iran remains a destabilizing force in Syria, and its neighbors view its efforts to prop up President Bashar al-Assad as inextricably linked to its expansionist designs in the Middle East, which would be furthered significantly by having a nuclear weapon.

Since Iran signed the interim nuclear deal in Geneva last month, Israel and Saudi Arabia have argued that any final deal needs to confront regional issues, notably Iran’s role in Syria. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, acknowledged as much when he toured Persian Gulf states recently to reassure them about Tehran’s intentions.

“They recognize their nuclear negotiations cannot be hermetically sealed off from regional issues,” said Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. “Ultimately, a nuclear deal has to be underpinned by a regional consensus. You’ve got to get other people’s buy-in.”

The trouble is, Iran has not been invited to next month’s conference on Syria, known as Geneva II, because it refuses to affirm that Mr. Assad must cede power — a prerequisite of the West. Its absence is a major impediment, given that Iran is a lifeline for Mr. Assad, providing him with training and equipment through the paramilitary Quds Force and with fighters from the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah.

Iran, experts say, is redoubling its support for Mr. Assad in the days before the Syria conference, which will be held in the Swiss city of Montreux, to maximize his chances of clinging to power. Iran is recruiting Shiite militias in Lebanon and Iraq to fight the rebels in Syria. Iranian rockets have worsened an already gruesome winter for millions of Syrians.

Mr. Assad’s survival is so important to Iran because he is the main patron of Hezbollah, and Iran relies on that group’s missiles and rockets, pointed at Israel from southern Lebanon, to act as a deterrent against Israeli threats to strike its nuclear facilities.

“The result is a humanitarian abomination caused by the regime, abetted by Iran, complicated by recent diplomatic initiatives, and worsened by the onset of winter,” said Frederic C. Hof, who as a State Department official worked on plans for a political transition in Syria and is now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

“I would hope we are leaning hard on Tehran to get its client to stop the war crimes and crimes against humanity and to oblige the regime to give unrestricted access to U.N. humanitarian relief organizations now,” he said. “I don’t know if we’re doing this or not.”

Mr. Hof’s words reflect a fear shared by some that the United States will turn a blind eye to Iran’s malign activities outside the nuclear sphere to prevent its diplomacy from going off the rails. Mr. Zarif has already threatened that any new sanctions will kill the negotiations.

Administration officials flatly deny that, noting that the United States has retained the right to impose sanctions on Iran for human rights abuses and for activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its Quds Force, which is active in Syria.

To show its mettle to a skeptical Congress, the administration last week imposed sanctions on several Iranian companies and individuals for evading sanctions. The move angered Tehran, which briefly suspended technical talks on the nuclear deal.

“We draw no linkage between nuclear talks and Syria,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser. “Our pursuit of an agreement on the nuclear issue does not in any way lessen our concerns about Iran’s activities in the region, including their support for Assad.”

For the United States, though, the grinding chaos in Syria is a distraction from those talks, which are far and away President Obama’s top priority in the Middle East. Mr. Obama’s appetite for engaging in Syria was limited even before diplomacy with Iran heated up. The White House recently suspended nonlethal aid to the rebels because of a fear that the supplies were falling into the hands of militant Islamists.

As for Iran, some analysts say its muscle-flexing in Syria is part of a broader internal struggle between moderates, led by President Hassan Rouhani, who are seeking a nuclear deal to ease sanctions, and hard-liners, led by the Revolutionary Guards, who are exploiting Mr. Rouhani’s diplomatic overture to press their own expansionist goals.

Given how the Middle East is dividing along sectarian lines, between Shiites and Sunnis, some analysts warn that allowing Iranian-backed elements to triumph in Syria could fatally weaken any nuclear deal.

“A deal on the Iranian nuclear program isn’t going to work if you cede the hard-liners the Levant,” said Andrew J. Tabler, a Syria expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Despite all these connections, few argue that the administration should expand the next round of nuclear talks to include Syria. The issues on the table — like centrifuges and a heavy-water reactor — are already thorny enough. Skeptics argue that Israel’s insistence on a broader focus — loading the Christmas tree with ornaments, in the words of one — is designed mainly to scuttle the nuclear deal.

Still, to make a deal durable will require persuading Israel and Saudi Arabia not only that Iran does not have a bomb, but also that the United States will not allow it to cast a Shiite crescent across the Middle East. Saudi Arabia, in particular, fears a tilt toward Tehran.

As if to prove that point, some argue that Iran and the United States are not as far apart on Syria as it appears. With Islamists on the rise and with moderate rebels on the sidelines, some prominent Americans — most recently Michael V. Hayden, a former C.I.A. director — are asking whether forcing out Mr. Assad is realistic or advisable.

“Iran’s position on Syria is that the alternative to Assad is more dangerous to both U.S. and Iranian interests than the status quo,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “As the Syrian conflict has persisted, more and more important voices in Washington have come around to this conclusion.”



Chân thành cám ơn Quý Anh Chị ghé thăm "conbenho Nguyễn Hoài Trang Blog".
Xin được lắng nghe ý kiến chia sẻ của Quý Anh Chị trực tiếp tại Diễn Đàn Paltalk: 1Latdo Tapdoan Vietgian CSVN Phanquoc Bannuoc . 
Kính chúc Sức Khỏe Quý Anh Chị . 




conbenho
Tiểu Muội quantu
Nguyễn Hoài Trang
20122013 
___________
Cộng sản Việt Nam là TỘI ÁC
Bao che, dung dưỡng TỘI ÁC là đồng lõa với TỘI ÁC