The Surprising Success of the New Libya
By Dirk Vandewalle November/December 2012
Article Summary and Author Biography
Free at least: celebrating the first anniversary of Qaddafi's fall, Benghazi, February 17, 2012 (Esam Al-Fetori / Courtesy Reuters)
The September 11 killing of the U.S. ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens, and three other Americans during an attack by an angry mob on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi has concentrated the world's attention on the problems of post-Qaddafi Libya. The riots showcased both the power of radical Islamist militias and the inability of the government in Tripoli to provide security and maintain order across the country. Lawlessness and corruption are pervasive, and fundamental questions about the structure and operation of Libyan political and economic institutions remain unanswered. None of this, however, should obscure the fact that the larger story about the new Libya is surprisingly positive. The worst-case scenarios commonly predicted a year ago have not emerged, and there are actually grounds for guarded optimism about the future.
A year and a half ago, Libya seemed as though it would be the country where the Arab Spring came to an end. After popular uprisings peacefully unseated dictators in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt, the Libyan revolution turned into a protracted, bloody civil war. Even when the rebels, with Western assistance, finally toppled the regime of Muammar al-Qaddafi in August 2011, many obstacles lay ahead. Libyans had little sense of national identity and no experience with democracy. The country was led by a transitional government that did not have a monopoly on the use of force. To build a functional state, Libya would have to overcome the legacy of over four decades of dictatorial rule, during which Qaddafi had prevented the development of real national institutions ...
Read more: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138123/dirk-vandewalle/after-qaddafi?cid=ppc-gg-libya&gclid=CNydkNiD_LMCFUdfpQodmQcAoQ
*** 2 Comments
Anthony Demestihas•20 days ago−
I believe we the United States and our Western European Allies, intervened in Libya and supported this associative term "Arab Spring" for different reasons. First, let me say this These uprisings, Tunsia, Egypt, Libya and Syria are anti-regime focused not democratic. Democratic movements are lead by the countries elites, driven by the masses, supported by the limited civil society and have firm grassroots throughout the country, translating that type of governance is accepted by all components of society as the “only game in town.” Destabilizing regimes, even if you have altruistic visions, with no credible evidence of a democratic movement, e.g. with massive grassroots support, is disastrous and only creates unstable or fractured states, where extremist seize the opportunity to obtain power. The notion of spreading democratization and the usage of military force to countries / nation-states where there is little evidence or support for democracy is self defeating, altruistic and a dangerous strategic policy to pursue. The wave of these Arab revolts is not indicative nor should characterized with liberalization morphing into democratic movements. Today’s western mindset associates these revolts with the De-Stalinization of Eastern Europe during the 1960’s calling it “Arab Spring.” , However there is no clear evidence of liberalization policies leading towards democratization led by the elites and driven by the masses, coupled with a civil society that is antithetical to democratization for cultural purposes.
Here are the commonalities that I see in the wave of revolts; the removal old regimes; a honeymoon period to follow; instillation of a provisional government and in some cases civil war, as the people in Libya are experiencing. These provisional governments have gone the same way Tunisia did. These ethno / sectarian based hypernational associations, turning into political entities, are using the democratic mechanisms to achieve power using “salami” / divide and conquer tactics that the Communist parties of Eastern Europe used.
Now lets discuss reasons for intervention, the US acted on misguided dreams and perceptions that all these anti-regime movements were in the name of democracy. As I indicated in the aforementioned section, none of these movements demonstrated a clear move towards democratization with all the elites of society accepting it as the only option; thus driving the masses through strong grassroots support. We have not seen this. Our European Friends acted out of emotional irrationalization due their inability to integrate their North African and Middle Eastern Minorities because of their lack of understanding or I will even say accepting multiculturalism for many reasons, one maintaining ethnic identity; the threat to destablizing territorial integrity and whole plethora of reasons out of fear or insecurity.
I know this may not palatable, but these are the facts. Thank you very much for this chance!
Javed Mir•2 months ago
Let us expect that Libyans can manage the requirements of democratic set up for which their experience is very nominal: hardly one year. There will be bumps on the road. They should reduce the soldier presence in the society, disarm the rebel factions and develop a strong and honest police force. Capable political leadership should spring up from within.
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The September 11 killing of the U.S. ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens, and three other Americans during an attack by an angry mob on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi has concentrated the world's attention on the problems of post-Qaddafi Libya.
Dirk Vandewalle
I believe we the United States and our Western European Allies, intervened in Libya and supported this associative term "Arab Spring" for different reasons. First, let me say this These uprisings, Tunsia, Egypt, Libya and Syria are anti-regime focused not democratic.
Anthony Demestihas
And ...
What do you think?
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