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Obama walks back 'red line' stance on Syrian government using chemical weapons
Published April 30, 2013
FoxNews.com
President Obama, who earlier said use of chemical weapons by Syria on its people would be a “red line” requiring action by the U.S., walked the stance back on Tuesday, saying he needs more information on the reported attacks before responding.
Administration officials recently said intelligence analysts had "varying degrees of confidence" the embattled government of Syrian President Bashar Assad has gassed civilians with sarin. However, Obama said the administration is using all its resources to determine the facts about a weapon that he has said would be a "game changer" for U.S. policy in the war.
"If we end up rushing to judgment without hard, effective evidence ... we can find ourselves in a position where we can't marshal the international community in support of what we do," Obama said. "It's important for us to do this in a prudent way."
The administration long ago called for Assad to step down and pave the way for a new government. But Obama has resisted calls from some Republicans in Congress to send U.S. military aid to the rebels and perhaps commit U.S. military resources directly.
"If we end up rushing to judgment without hard, effective evidence ... we can find ourselves in a position where we can't marshal the international community in support what we do."
- President Obama on a possible U.S. response to growing concerns Syria has deployed chemical weapons
So far, the war, which began in March 2011, has claimed an estimated 75,000 lives. While the U.S. has backed the Syrian rebels with non-military aid, critics have said that the forces include Al Qaeda fighters and other insurgents unfriendly toward the U.S., leaving uncertainty surrounding Syria's future under a post-Assad government.
Republican Sens. John McCain, Ariz., and Lindsey Graham, S.C., said the president must do more to end the conflict.
"It will not be long before Assad takes this delay as an invitation to use chemical weapons again on an even larger scale," they said in a joint statement. "The president needs to lead. He needs to articulate exactly what outcome in Syria would best serve America’s national security interests."
Obama made the remarks at a wide-ranging White House press conference in which he also answered questions about his signature health-care law, defended the FBI in its efforts to crack down on terrorism before the deadly Boston Marathon bombing and said he’d renew efforts to close the terrorist prison camp at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Four months into his second term, Obama said he remains open-minded about the immigration legislation being hammered out by congressional lawmakers and that he would not support a bill that excludes a pathway to citizenship – a sticking point for most Democrats and a divisive issue for Republicans. Reforming the nation’s immigration system has been one of the president’s top legislative priorities this term.
Asked about the FBI's investigation into a possible terrorist threat posed in the past by Tamerlan Tsarnaev, a suspect in the April 15 Boston Marathon bombings who died in an escape attempt, the president said, "Based on what I've seen so far, the FBI performed its duties, the Department of Homeland Security did what it was supposed to be doing."
Obama also said he’d renew efforts to close Guantanamo Bay. His first-term campaign promise to shut down the terrorist camp has been met with strong objection from lawmakers who don’t want the prisoners transferred to American soil.
Asked about a hunger strike by some detainees, he said, "I don't want these individuals to die." The president also said the Pentagon was doing what it could to manage the situation.
Obama also noted that several suspected terrorists have been tried and found guilty in U.S. federal courts, a response to congressional critics who say the detainees must be tried in special courts if the United States is to maximize its ability to prevent future attacks.
On another contentious issue, the president said a variety of Republicans were working to foil the final implementation of the health care law he pushed through Congress three years ago.
He said GOP lawmakers want to repeal the law and some Republican governors don't want to have their states participate in establishing insurance pools where the uninsured can find coverage. In other cases, Republican legislatures object when governors are willing to go along.
“We will implement" the law, Obama said, though he conceded there will be glitches along the way.
"Despite all the hue and cry and sky-is-falling predictions about this stuff, if you've already got health insurance, then the part of ObamaCare that affects you is already in place," he said.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/30/obama-walks-back-red-line-stance-on-syrian-government-using-chemical-weapons/#ixzz2Rz2UCv8c
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Trio jailed over world's biggest ecstasy haul
By court reporter Sarah Farnsworth, ABC
Updated May 1, 2013, 2:38 am
Three men jailed for a combined 40 years over their attempt to smuggle ecstasy tablets from Italy in 2007.
Three men have been jailed over their attempt to smuggle the world's biggest haul of ecstasy into Australia.
A Victorian Supreme Court jury found the trio guilty of conspiring to smuggle more than 15 million ecstasy tablets into Australia from Italy in 2007.
The drugs weighed more than 4.4 tonnes, had an estimated street value of $122 million and were hidden inside tomato tins.
At the time of the seizure, it was the largest haul of ecstasy in the world.
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Pasquale Sergi, Salvatore Agresta and John Higgs were sentenced to a combined total of 40 years in jail.
"You were all involved in a crime in which every one was playing for the highest stakes we have ever known in this country," Justice Betty King said.
"That of obtaining possession of 15 million plus tablets of ecstasy
"You must have all been aware of the risk and the consequences of [your] involvement.
"You chose to take that risk and now you must all bear the consequences."
Higgs, 65, who has a criminal history including a conviction for manslaughter, was sentenced to 18 years in jail with a non-parole period of 14 years.
Agresta, 44, who ran an Ascot Vale Deli where gangland identity Des Moran was shot dead in 2009, was sentenced to 12 years in jail to serve at least 8 years.
Sergi, 49, was sentenced to 10 years in jail, to serve a minimum 6 years and 9 months.
A fourth man who can not be named has also been jailed over the conspiracy.
The two ringleaders, New South Wales men Pasquale Barbaro and Saverio Zirilli, have already been jailed.
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Boston bomb suspect 'had links to slain Islamists'
AFP April 30, 2013, 2:18 am
Boston bomb victims receive support
Boston bomb suspect 'had links to slain Islamists'
MAKHACHKALA, Russia (AFP) - One of the brothers suspected of carrying out the Boston bombings had made links with two figures in the Islamist anti-Kremlin insurgency in the Northern Caucasus, both of whom were killed by Russian security forces, a security source said Monday.
Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26, who was himself killed during his capture by US authorities, was known to have been in contact with a Dagestan militant named Makhmud Nidal and also a militant of Canadian origin named William Plotnikov, a Russian security source in the Northern Caucasus told AFP.
Plotnikov took part, like Tamerlan Tsarnaev, in boxing competitions in both Canada and the United States and the two men also had contacts on social networks, said the source.
Plotnikov was among seven militants killed in a shootout with Russian security forces in July 2012. It was not clear if they ever met on the territory of Dagestan itself.
According to the Moscow-based Novaya Gazeta opposition newspaper, which also published details of Plotnikov's links to Tsarnaev, he was a 21-year-old ethnic Russian who had converted to Islam in Canada.
It said that Tsarnaev's name first became known to the Russian security forces when Plotnikov was arrested in 2010 in the Dagestani town of Izberbash. He was later released.
Makhmud Nidal meanwhile was a known militant with whom Tamerlan Tsarnaev was seen when he made a trip back to Dagestan from the United States in 2012, the security source told AFP.
They were seen together four times, on each occasion at a mosque known for its Salafist tendencies in the Dagestani capital Makhachkala.
During his visits to the mosque he became the subject of some interest among fellow worshippers owing to an unusual interest in the study of Islam.
Nidal was killed in May 2012 in a "counterterrorist" operation in Makhachkala. After his death, Tsarnaev disappeared from the view of the Russian security services.
The avowed purpose of Tamerlan Tsarnaev's visit to Dagestan in 2012 was to obtain a new Russian passport which in the end he never picked up.
The visit is now being closely scrutinised in Russia and the United States to see if the true aim was to activate contacts with Islamists in Dagestan, which has been dogged by an anti-Kremlin insurgency for years.
A source in the Dagestan centre for fighting extremism, which is part of the federal security service, told the Novaya Gazeta that in the light of the latest information it appeared this was the case.
"Judging by this all, Tamerlan Tsarnaev indeed came to Dagestan with the aim of making contact with militants," said the source.
But the source added that he had failed to achieve his goal as it takes several months for a willing new militant to go through a "quarantine" period to be accepted by other Islamists as one of their own.
After the deaths of Nidal and Plotnikov, Tameralan Tsarnaev "lost his contacts, got scared and jumped."
US and Russian security services are looking closely for signs Tamerlan Tsarnaev and his brother and suspected accomplice, Dzhokhar, had active links to the Islamist underground in the Northern Caucasus or acted on their own.
Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, 19, who was wounded in an escape attempt, has been charged with using a weapon of mass destruction and could face the death penalty if convicted in US federal court.
Their parents, who gave a highly-charged news conference last week, had been planning to return to the United States but went back on their plans due to the ill health of the father Anzor.
The security source told AFP that Anzor and his wife Zubeidat had been taken out of Dagestan by friends and flown to Moscow via the regional Mineralnye Vody airport.
The Northern Caucasus region of Dagestan is home to dozens of ethnic groups and languages and experiences almost daily shootings and bombings that officials blame on local criminals and Islamists with links to neighbouring Chechnya.
Chân thành cám ơn Quý Anh Chị ghé thăm "conbenho Nguyễn Hoài Trang Blog".
Xin được lắng nghe ý kiến chia sẻ của Quý Anh Chị trực tiếp tại Diễn Đàn Paltalk: 1Latdo Tapdoan Vietgian CSVN Phanquoc Bannuoc .
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conbenho
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Nguyễn Hoài Trang
30042013
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Cộng sản Việt Nam là TỘI ÁC
Bao che, dung dưỡng TỘI ÁC là đồng lõa với TỘI ÁC
Before you get at the truth on Syria's chemical weapons, you have to debunk the conspiracy theorists
By Richard Spencer World Last updated: April 27th, 2013
269 Comments Comment on this article
A man searches for survivors from the rubble of a damaged area in Aleppo this month. (Photo: Reuters)
Before you get at the truth on Syria's chemical weapons, you have to debunk the conspiracy theorists. The comments underneath my backgrounder in today's paper on the politics behind the latest Syrian chemical weapons claim were more interesting and less rabid than might be expected on this emotive topic. But they still divided neatly into two extreme camps – those who thought that President Obama's failure to take action against the Assad regime was typical of his weak international leadership and those who thought the whole chemical weapons theme was a giant scam intended to force us into war.
There can be hardly anyone, I sometimes think, who now doesn't roll their eyes about all this and say "here we go again"; anyone who takes anything anyone says at face value. Even journalists have declared today that "in war everyone lies", which even if true is never a very helpful thing to say: why, then, should we care, or listen to journalists either?
In fact, it's pretty easy to debunk most of the conspiracy theories about the latest chemical weapons claims by Britain and America. I would argue that even if you don't believe the claims, and are opposed to western intervention, it would serve your purpose to do so, so you know what ground you are standing on. You will still be left with two very strong lines of inquiry. I'll get to them.
1. "It's just Iraq WMD all over again." Actually, it isn't. The claims about Iraq's WMDs were based on snippets of information from agents, ambiguous satellite imagery, and the like. None of the raw data was clear – no-one, not even those who presented it, claimed it was. The reason for the "dodgy dossier" was the need to put a huge amount of spin on the evidence, none of which was verifiable. The dossier was met with laughter and contempt at the time; moreover, Colin Powell's presentation to the UN was widely condemned. Plenty of reputable bodies, notably the IAEA, poured doubt on the American and British arguments. This time we have a very specific claim, with scientific evidence – they have soil samples which they say have tested positive for sarin, a nerve gas. The lie this time would have to be much more shameless. And if it's a lie, there are quite a significant number of scientists eating their breakfasts and reading their papers out there and saying, not, as before "I don't like the interpretation they put on that", like David Kelly, but "Hang on, that's not what I found at all." Independent scientists are not pouring scorn on the claims, merely saying they are not conclusive – as do the governments themselves.
2. "Saddam Hussein's use of poison gas killed thousands of people. This has only killed a few people. It can't be chemical warfare." You hear this one a lot. But why? You can use small quantities. The stocks – as Amy Smithson, a US expert pointed out to me, could be degraded. When a Japanese cult used sarin in the Tokyo metro in 1995 13 people died – similar to the numbers we are talking about in Syria.
3. "The frothing faces and people in those videos look phony to me". They do, a bit. But one thing I have learned rather more than I would have wanted to in the last couple of years is how often dead and grievously injured bodies do look as if they have sustained their wounds on a Hollywood set. It's gruesome, but true. I don't know why: maybe it's to do with the brain's desire not to face up to some horrors.
4. "All we know about this war is from videos; the rebels could all be making everything up." Technically possible, but seriously? The extent of video evidence of regime atrocities in general means the work involved in the forgery would be beyond anything imaginable. In fact, when independent groups like Human Rights Watch have done their own research, they have found activists to have underestimated casualties figures. In the case of the chemical weapons videos, forgery would need complicity of named doctors who have in several cases been interviewed independently by journalists. That does seem to put a greater onus on those accusing them of lying to do more than repeat easy, blanket suspicions.
5. "Obama and Cameron are just trying to push us into another Middle Eastern war". It's fairly obvious to anyone who looks that there is nothing that either of these men want to do less than risk their reputations on another Middle Eastern war. Both are much more traditional in the foreign policy approach than predecessors like Bush II and Blair – neo-realists, with a clear idea of what is doable, and what is and isn't a national interest. Libya was a far too damned close run thing for either, as some of those have admitted. Syria hasn't met either criterion. Even if you are one of those people for whom it's "all about oil" – well, there isn't much in Syria.
Does that mean that everything is clear-cut? No, but then the statements of the two governments say that themselves. On the other hand, are they being totally upfront with us? Well, here the answer is no, and this is where we should all be looking over the next few days. It comes down to two questions.
1. Why can't you publish the evidence? The symptoms seen on the videos could be the result of chemical use that does not breach the rules of war. That is admitted. Indeed, the first reading of the gas attack in Homs in December last year was that the gas involved was a souped-up tear gas. The Syrian Support Group – a rebel lobbying group in Washington – say they have tested samples from the key attack in Aleppo on March 19 positive for organophosphates which have a similar effect to sarin but which aren't banned. Given that both British and American governments say their tests have found sarin (no equivocation – the "not definitive" appears to refer to the transmission of these samples and doubts as to how the chemicals got where they were) there seems no reason they cannot publish the specific findings for peer review. Where did the samples come from, how were they tested, what were the results precisely, what are the assessed margins of error? They will look stupid if it's found the readings came back "Tests proved sarin to 60pc probability, but it could have been something which had a similar effect, the sample size was too small to be certain."
2. Given that we all know (really, we do) that Syria is a huge problem with no easy answer, possibly no sustainable answer at all, it would be better to admit there is a wide policy divide on it. The neo-realist approach – once strongly embedded in the Republican and Conservative parties, and making a come-back – is that far from promoting American values, Bush's Middle East wars hugely damaged western interests. The biggest threat to American global dominance is the debt, brought about by indulging in imperial over-reach wars in the Middle East that coincided with the rise of China. They don't want to make the same mistake again – some would (I believe) go so far as to sacrifice Israeli interests to prevent this happening. On the other hand, a combination of those who believe American might is unstoppable, liberal interventionists, and, hell, anyone who has been to Syria and seen what a cluster**** it has become, wants America to do something. Large sections of the American policy establishment have changed tack on this over the last two years, particularly the Pentagon, which was initially sceptical and is now, many believe, acting unilaterally to get weapons to the rebels. This is the debate, and it should be had honestly, with as few references to previous disasters as possible. After all, we all know that seeking to avoid previous errors is the best way of making them happen again.
Read more by Richard Spencer on Telegraph Blogs
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Tags: Barack Obama, Bashar al-Assad, chemical weapons, Syria, weapons of mass destruction
*** 292 Comments
Read more: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/richardspencer/100214145/before-you-get-at-the-truth-on-syrias-chemical-weapons-you-have-to-debunk-the-conspiracy-theorists/
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Lawmakers say Syrian chemical weapons could menace U.S.
Calls for action stop short of sending ground troops
The Associated Press
Posted: Apr 28, 2013 5:04 PM ET
Last Updated: Apr 28, 2013 10:06 PM ET
A boy, affected in what the government said was a chemical weapons attack, is treated at a hospital in the Syrian city of Aleppo March 19, 2013. Syria's government and opposition have accused each other of firing a rocket loaded with chemical agents outside the northern city of Aleppo. (George Ourfalian/Reuters)
Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons could be a greater threat after that nation's president leaves power and could end up targeting Americans at home, lawmakers warned Sunday as they considered a U.S. response that stops short of sending military forces there.
U.S. officials last week declared that the Syrian government probably had used chemical weapons twice in March, newly provocative acts in the 2-year civil war that has killed more than 70,000 people and displaced hundreds of thousands more. The U.S. assessment followed similar conclusions from Britain, France, Israel and Qatar — key allies eager for a more aggressive response to the Syrian conflict.
'For America to sit on the sidelines and do nothing is a huge mistake'
—Sen. Saxby Chambliss
President Barack Obama has said Syria's likely action — or the transfer of President Bashar Assad's stockpiles to terrorists — would cross a "red line" that would compel the United States to act.
Lawmakers sought to remind viewers on Sunday news programs of Obama's declaration while discouraging a U.S. foothold on the ground there.
"The president has laid down the line, and it can't be a dotted line. It can't be anything other than a red line," said House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican. "And more than just Syria, Iran is paying attention to this. North Korea is paying attention to this."
Barack Obama has warned use of chemical weapons in Syria would cross a "red line." (Craig F. Walker, The Denver Post/Associated Press)
Added Sen. Saxby Chambliss, also a Republican: "For America to sit on the sidelines and do nothing is a huge mistake."
Obama has insisted that any use of chemical weapons would change his thinking about the United States' role in Syria but said he didn't have enough information to order aggressive action.
"For the Syrian government to utilize chemical weapons on its people crosses a line that will change my calculus and how the United States approaches these issues," Obama said Friday.
But Rep. Jan Schakowsky, a Democrat, said Sunday the United States needs to consider those weapons. She said that when Assad leaves power, his opponents could have access to those weapons or they could fall into the hands of U.S. enemies.
"The day after Assad is the day that these chemical weapons could be at risk… [and] we could be in bigger, even bigger trouble," she said.
McCain urges action
Both sides of the civil war already accuse each other of using the chemical weapons.
The deadliest such alleged attack was in the Khan al-Assal village in the Aleppo province in March. The Syrian government called for the United Nations to investigate alleged chemical weapons use by rebels in the attack that killed 31 people.
Syria, however, has not allowed a team of experts into the country because it wants the investigation limited to the single Khan al-Assal incident, while UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has urged "immediate and unfettered access" for an expanded investigation.
Sen. John McCain says the U.S. must not "put boots on the ground" in Syria. (Charles Dharapak/Associated Press)
One of Obama's chief antagonists on Syria, Sen. John McCain, said the United States should go to Syria as part of an international force to safeguard the chemical weapons. But McCain added that he is not advocating sending ground troops to the nation.
"The worst thing the United States could do right now is put boots on the ground on Syria. That would turn the people against us," said McCain, the Republican who lost the 2008 presidential election to Obama.
His friend, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, also said the United States could safeguard the weapons without a ground force. But he cautioned the weapons must be protected for fear that Americans could be targeted. Raising the specter of the lethal bomb at the finish line of the Boston Marathon, Graham said the next attack on U.S. soil could employ weapons that were once part of Assad's arsenal.
"Chemical weapons — enough to kill millions of people — are going to be compromised and fall into the wrong hands, and the next bomb that goes off in America may not have nails and glass in it," he said.
Rogers and Schakowsky spoke to ABC's "This Week." Chambliss and Graham were interviewed on CBS's "Face the Nation." McCain appeared on NBC's "Meet the Press."
Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2013/04/28/syria-chemical-weapons-us.html
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29 April 2013 Last updated at 08:42 GMT
Syria crisis: PM Halaqi 'survives Damascus car bombing'
BBC
Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halaqi has survived a car bomb attack in the capital, Damascus, reports say.
The blast in western Mazzeh district targeted Mr Halaqi's convoy, state television said. There are reported to be a number of casualties.
UK-based activist group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said Mr Halaqi's bodyguard had been killed, AFP news agency reported.
It is unclear whether the blast was a suicide bombing or a planted device.
An unnamed Syrian official said the explosion was caused by a bomb placed underneath a parked car in the area, the Associated Press news agency reported.
An earlier report said it had been a suicide attack.
Syrian state television said the explosion happened at a busy intersection. Video from the scene showed burning debris and firefighters trying to put out a blaze.
A picture which activists said was of the site of the attack showed a large plume of black smoke rising into the air near a road and a high-rise building.
Activist groups said a bus and a car had been set on fire.
Mazzeh is a government-controlled quarter housing a military airport which is vital to the regime's defences.
Syrian forces and rebels have been fighting around Damascus for months but with neither side gaining an upper hand.
The attack is the latest bombing inside government-controlled areas of the capital.
In December a suicide bombing struck the interior ministry. State media said top officials had escaped unhurt, but it later emerged that the interior minister himself had been badly injured.
So far there has been no claim of responsibility for Monday's attack. Similar bombings in the past have been linked to the jihadist al-Nusra Front, one of the most prominent rebel groups fighting the regime.
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King: ‘No good option’ for Syrian response
By Jeremy Herb - 04/27/13 10:28 AM ET
Sen. Angus King (I-Maine) said Friday that the Obama administration should be taking a cautious approach toward the situation in Syria after the White House said it has some evidence of a chemical attack.
King said in an interview on Bloomberg TV’s “Political Capital” that he is not yet “convinced” that Syrian President Bashar Assad crossed President Obama’s red line of using chemical weapons.
“We got to be sure that it really is the regime and not the opposition that is planting evidence in order to draw us in,” King said. “These are very serious consequences."
The news from the White House that it believes two chemical attacks took place in Syria has prompted new calls from many lawmakers for the U.S. to take military action in Syria.
While there is a general consensus among most that something should be done, such as arming the rebels or establishing a no-fly zone, there is concern about how far the U.S. should get involved and what happens after the Assad regime falls.
No lawmakers, for instance, say that the U.S. military should be putting “boots on the ground” in Syria.
“There are so many different options, and I can tell you there’s no good option, at least that I’ve seen," King said.
There are concerns about providing arms to the rebels because there is no unified opposition, and some of the rebel groups are affiliated with al Qaeda.
King said he was concerned about the arms falling into the wrong hands, even if they were given to vetted opposition groups as some are calling.
"We’ve already had the experience in Afghanistan of arming the opposition and then having those arms used against us five or 10 years later,” he said. “What I’m hearing is that the opposition is armed and they’re getting arms from other people. They don’t necessarily have to get arms from us.”
If the U.S. verifies that Assad has used chemical weapons, however, King said there’s also a concern about doing nothing and emboldening Assad.
“But I think if you’re going to draw a red line, you’d better be sure it’s crossed before you start doing anything significant,” he said. “The other problem is… the opposition wins and the country fragments. Then who’s going to get control of those chemical weapons?”
Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-and-strategy/296553-sen-king-no-good-option-for-syrian-response#ixzz2RkrkSDKh
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Chân thành cám ơn Quý Anh Chị ghé thăm "conbenho Nguyễn Hoài Trang Blog".
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conbenho
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28042013
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Cộng sản Việt Nam là TỘI ÁC
Bao che, dung dưỡng TỘI ÁC là đồng lõa với TỘI ÁC
Syria spillover risk, say analysts
Ahmad Khatib
From: AAP
April 28, 2013 1:09AM
SYRIA'S neighbours face a growing risk of the conflict spilling across their region with Bashar al-Assad turning to ever more desperate acts to halt rebels, analysts say.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki voiced such concerns on Saturday when he said a new wave of sectarian strife in his country stemmed from violence elsewhere, although he did not name Syria.
However, others believe while Iraq, Israel and Turkey will all be affected, Lebanon and Jordan will be most vulnerable if the conflict spreads.
"There is a significant risk of an increased spillover," says Anthony Skinner of British risk consultancy Maplecroft.
"It is a very vulnerable region and there is a risk of escalation. The whole region may increasingly become involved in the conflict."
Jordan hosts more than 500,000 Syrian refugees, while Lebanon is home to 400,000 but the two countries face other tough challenges.
Amman has found itself dragged closer to the conflict with the deployment of more US troops on its territory amid a warning by Assad the kingdom could be engulfed by the war, and accusations of allowing fighters into Syria.
"Jordan had been pushed because of the escalation next door and because of its concerns regarding militant Islam and Salafists. Jordan is concerned about the potential chaos that may follow for years or decades in the likely event that Assad will eventually be toppled," Skinner said.
Lebanon has witnessed frequent shelling from Syria of both Sunni Muslim and Shi'ite areas of its north and east.
It has adopted a policy of neutrality despite being torn between the Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies that support Assad, and the Sunni-led March 14 movement that backs the revolt.
Opposition activists in Syria have accused Hezbollah of sending elite fighters to battle alongside Assad's troops in Qusayr, an area near the border.
"Lebanon could be plunging into a state of war - this is a very real risk," Skinner said.
For Yezid Sayigh of the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, "the main impact on Jordan and Lebanon is the refugees, which puts them under severe pressure.
"Even those who support the Syrian opposition, are becoming fed up with the refugee influx. If the situation develops, more Syrians, maybe millions, will flee to Jordan and Lebanon," exacerbating the chances of conflict in the host countries, he told AFP.
Syria's conflict is increasingly becoming a proxy war, with the rebels backed by US allies Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, and Assad by Hezbollah, Iran and Russia.
Assad's forces are too stretched to retaliate against those who back the rebels, but occasional cross-border shelling is conceivable, said Skinner.
"Though, these attacks would not be deemed large enough to provoke a strong counter-punch, it's conceivable that Assad would use proxies that are not so clearly linked to his line of command," Skinner said.
Turkey and Israel are worried about the fallout.
"The threat of the Syrian conflict has pushed Turkey to engage in what appears to be a serious peace process with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party)," he said.
Israel fears Syria's chemical weapons arsenal could fall into the wrong hands.
"The United States and Israel have limited options to deal with the chemical weapons. They do not want things to develop, which might give the Syrian regime the chance to use the weapons," Sayigh said.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/world/syria-spillover-risk-say-analysts/story-e6frfkui-1226630828316#ixzz2RhietqN6
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Obama's Chemical Weapons ‘Red Line’ for Syria Keeps Shifting: Former WMD Hunter
By Rachel Oswald
Updated: April 26, 2013 | 3:11 p.m.
April 26, 2013 | 3:06 p.m.
President Obama’s “red line” for U.S. intervention in Syria is actually more of a fuzzy zone whose goalposts keep shifting, said the former top WMD hunter in Iraq.
“It’s a term I particularly don’t like because unless you’re prepared [to carry through] you really do damage to your credibility and the power of our diplomacy because no one believes you,” said David Kay, who from 2003 to 2004 led the Iraq Survey Group that searched for evidence of unconventional weapons in Iraq following the U.S.-led invasion.
Washington on Thursday said it was reasonably confident that Assad loyalists in recent months have carried out one or more limited-scale chemical attacks in Syria, likely involving the nerve agent sarin.
President Obama and his top officials have repeatedly affirmed that use or proliferation of Syrian chemical weapons would constitute an act that would demand a U.S. response.
The Thursday announcement, however, was not followed by any announcement from the White House that its threatened intervention in the Syrian civil war is now in the offing or that Assad would even be prevented from carrying out further chemical attacks.
"Were [Assad] to undertake any additional use, he would be doing so under very careful monitoring from us and the international community," a senior administration official said in a Thursday conference call with reporters. "We are going to be methodical, rigorous, and relentless in gathering the relevant information and putting it together so we can establish exactly what happened."
"If we reach a definitive determination that this red line has been crossed ... what we will be doing is consulting with our friends and allies and the international community more broadly, as well as the Syrian opposition, to determine what the best course of action is,” the staffer told reporters.
The United States has pledged nonlethal aid to the Syrian opposition but has so far avoided arming the rebels or providing any direct military assistance in the war that has already killed more than 70,000 people.
Obama first laid down his red line on chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war in August 2012. "A red line for us is (if) we see a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around, or being utilized. That would change my calculus” on whether a U.S. intervention is merited, the president said.
“We have communicated in no uncertain terms with every player in the region that that's a red line for us and that there would be enormous consequences if we start seeing movement on the chemical weapons front or the use of chemical weapons,” the president said.
While the administration did not discuss specifics, outside experts interpreted the reference to movement of chemical weapons as addressing the potential removal from storage and transport of chemical weapons for firing or for proliferation to nonstate actors. However, when the Syrian military was detected in December apparently loading sarin into aerial munitions, the administration indicated that its red line was actually carrying out a chemical attack, not readying for one.
Obama officials since then in their threats to Assad ceased mentioning the movement of chemical materials while still warning against providing them to extremist organizations.
“I want to make it absolutely clear to Assad and those under his command, the world is watching,” Obama said in December. “The use of chemical weapons is and would be totally unacceptable.”
Administration officials have always been careful to refrain from actually defining what it means for chemical weapons to be utilized; how many must be used or proliferated to warrant a U.S. reaction; and specifically what kind of a response the United States would take.
Then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also in December said there was worry "that an increasingly desperate Assad regime might turn to chemical weapons, or might lose control of them. ...We have sent an unmistakable message that this would cross a red line and those responsible would be held to account."
Last month Obama said, “We have been clear that the use of chemical weapons against the Syrian people would be a serious and tragic mistake. …The Assad regime must understand that they will be held accountable for the use of chemical weapons or their transfer to terrorists."
The administration has said it has sent warnings on the matter directly to Assad.
“I do question the utility of red lines if they lack clearly delineated boundaries and meaningful consequences,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon (R-Calif.) said in a Thursday statement that called on the White House to make good on its threats to Assad. “I am confident the president does not wish for America’s resolve to be called into question.”
Global Green USA chemical-weapon expert Paul Walker, though, said he did not feel the administration was giving conflicting signals about where its red line lies. “I don’t think the red line has been moving but it’s still a question of what one means by use of chemical weapons.”
Kay in a Thursday interview said the lack of clarity around the red line for Syria has implications that go beyond that conflict. Other nations with their own disputes with the United States, namely Iran and North Korea, are paying attention. “You are devaluing your diplomacy when you do that because it’s going to be heard in other places.”
“We’ve used that term so often with Iran that in fact the desert must be pink,” said Kay, now a senior fellow with the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
The Obama administration is in a tough spot in trying to balance sending a strong deterrent signal to Assad while still giving itself enough time to make certain that a chemical strike has in fact taken place and that it knows who is responsible. Answering all of those questions is no easy feat in Syria, where the U.S. lacks its own intelligence operation and an uneasy coalition of rebel militias might have their own motivations for trying to pin a chemical attack on the regime.
Kay acknowledged that the Obama White House has the added challenge of following in the footsteps of the Bush administration, which did make good of its threats to go after Saddam Hussein only to find out afterward it had been grossly wrong in its intelligence surrounding Iraqi WMD capabilities.
“Under those conditions you have to be careful about not over threatening, particularly … about not talking about consequences that you’re not prepared to carry out,” Kay said.
Walker agreed: “We have to be careful that statements at this time do not accelerate to more than people want or is necessary.”
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Read more: http://www.nationaljournal.com/nationalsecurity/obama-s-chemical-weapons-red-line-for-syria-keeps-shifting-former-wmd-hunter-20130426
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A look at North Korea's military capabilities
By SAM KIM | Associated Press – 12 hrs ago
Associated Press/David Guttenfelder - North Korean soldiers and civilians pose for souvenir photos in front of a fountain as they tour the grounds of Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, the mausoleum where the bodies of the late leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il lie embalmed, in Pyongyang on Thursday, April 25, 2013. North Korea on Thursday marked the 81st anniversary of the founding of its military, which began as an anti-Japanese militia and now has an estimated 1.2-million troops. (AP Photo/David Guttenfelder)
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea's military, founded 81 years ago Thursday, is older than the country itself. It began as an anti-Japanese militia and is now the heart of the nation's "military first" policy.
Late leader Kim Jong Il elevated the military's role during his 17-year rule, boosting troop levels to an estimated 1.2 million soldiers, according to the South Korean government. The military's new supreme commander, Kim Jong Un, gave the Korean People's Army a sharpened focus this year by instructing troops to build a "nuclear arms force." Yet the army is believed to be running on outdated equipment and short supplies.
The secretive army divulges few details about its operations, but here is an assessment from foreign experts of its strengths and weaknesses:
___
ARTILLERY
North Korea provided a chilling reminder of what its artillery is capable of when it showered a front-line South Korean island with shells, killing four people in November 2010 and underscoring the threat that its artillery troops pose at the disputed sea border.
South Korea says North Korea has more than 13,000 artillery guns, and its long-range batteries are capable of hitting the capital Seoul, a city of more than 10 million people just 30 miles (50 kilometers) from the border.
"North Korea's greatest advantage is that its artillery could initially deliver a heavy bombardment on the South Korean capital," Mark Fitzpatrick, a former U.S. State Department official now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in an email.
South Korea's defense minister estimates that 70 percent of North Korean artillery batteries along the border could be "neutralized" in five days if war broke out. But Sohn Yong-woo, a professor at the Graduate School of National Defense Strategy of Hannam University in South Korea, said that would be too late to prevent millions of civilian casualties and avert a disastrous blow to Asia's fourth-largest economy.
___
SPECIAL FORCES
Experts believe guerrilla warfare would be the North's most viable strategy in the event of conflict, since its conventional army suffers from aging equipment and a shortage of firepower.
Seoul estimates North Korea has about 200,000 special forces, and Pyongyang has used them before.
In 1968, 31 North Korean commandos stormed Seoul's presidential Blue House in a failed assassination attempt against then-President Park Chung-hee. That same year, more than 120 North Korean commandos sneaked into eastern South Korea and killed some 20 South Korean civilians, soldiers and police officers.
In 1996, 26 North Korean agents infiltrated South Korea's northeastern mountains after their submarine broke down, sparking a manhunt that left all but two of them dead, along with 13 South Korean soldiers and civilians.
"The special forces' goal is to discourage both the United States and South Korea from fighting with North Korea at the earliest stage of war by putting major infrastructure, such as nuclear plants, and their citizens at risk," said Kim Yeon-su, a professor at Korea National Defense University in Seoul. "The North's special forces are a key component of its asymmetric capabilities along with nuclear bombs, missiles and artillery. Their job is to create as many battlefronts as possible to put their enemies in disarray."
___
ON LAND, BY SEA AND IN THE AIR
In March 2010, 46 South Korean sailors died in a Yellow Sea attack on their warship that Seoul blamed on a North Korean submarine. Pyongyang denies involvement. Separately, since 1999, North and South Korean navies have fought three bloody skirmishes near their disputed western maritime border. Experts say those battles show while the South has an edge in naval firepower and technology, the North relies on the element of surprise.
North Korea has 70 submarines while South Korea has 10, according to Seoul's Defense Ministry. The most menacing threats from the North's navy are small submarines that would deposit commando raiders along the South Korean coast, said John Pike, head of the Globalsecurity.org think tank.
North Korea also has 820 warplanes, more than South Korea, though Seoul is backed up by American air power. The South says most of the North's aircraft are obsolete. North Korea also suffers chronic fuel shortages that have forced its air force to cut sorties, experts say.
"North Korea would not be able to prosecute a full-fledged war for very long," Fitzpatrick said. "Its biggest problem is that North Korea would quickly lose control of the skies because of the vastly superior (South Korean) and U.S. air forces. The reported number of North Korean aircraft is meaningless, because many of them cannot fly, and North Korean pilots have little training in the air."
The U.S. stations 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea and has recently flown nuclear-capable stealth B-2 bombers and F-22 fighter jets during joint drills in a show of force aimed at deterring North Korea.
Logistics and supplies are another issue. Heavy equipment deployed by naval and air forces requires extensive repairs, especially on rugged terrain like the Korean Peninsula. South Korea's Defense Ministry estimates North Korea's wartime resources, mostly stored underground, would last only two to three months.
"North Korea's only chance of winning any war depends on how quickly it can end one," Sohn said.
North Korea could try to compensate for its lack of effective equipment with sheer manpower. North Korea, a country of about 25 million, has an estimated 7.7 million reserves.
___
MISSILES AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS
North Korea says it needs to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent against U.S. aggression. It has conducted three underground nuclear tests since 2006, the most recent in February.
Pyongyang is believed to have enough weaponized plutonium for four to eight nuclear bombs, according to Siegfried Hecker, a nuclear expert with Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation.
But he doubts Pyongyang has mastered the technology to tip a missile with a nuclear warhead. "I don't believe North Korea has the capacity to attack the United States with nuclear weapons mounted on missiles and won't for many years," he said on the website of Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies this month.
Bruce Bennett, a Rand Corp. expert, said earlier this month that it's very unlikely the North has a nuclear missile capable of hitting the U.S. but said there is a "reasonable chance" that Pyongyang has short-range nuclear missile capability.
___
CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS
North Korea denies it runs any chemical and biological weapons programs. South Korea claims that Pyongyang has up to 5,000 tons of chemical weapons.
The IISS says that although the figures are "highly speculative," the North probably does possess chemical and biological arms programs.
"Whatever the actual status of North Korea's chemical and biological capabilities, the perception that it has, or likely has, chemical and biological weapons contributes to Pyongyang's interest in creating uncertainties in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo and raises the stakes to deter or intimidate potential enemies," it said on its website. North Korea is not a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention, but it has acceded to the non-binding Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention.
___
Follow Sam Kim on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/samkim_ap
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White House: US believes Syrian regime used chemical weapons
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told reporters in Abu Dhabi that the United States has "a reasonable amount of confidence that some amount of chemical weapons was used" by the Syrian government.
By Kristen Welker, Jim Miklaszewski, Courtney Kube and Tracy Connor, NBC News
The White House said Thursday that the U.S. believes "with some degree of varying confidence" the Syrian government has used chemical weapons — specifically the nerve agent sarin — against its own people.
A letter from the White House to members of Congress said the assessment was based on "physiological samples" but called for a United Nations probe to corroborate it and nail down when and how they were used.
"We are continuing to do further work to establish a definitive judgement as to whether or not the red line has been crossed and to inform our decision-making about what we'll do next," a White House official said.
"All options are on the table in terms of our response," the official added.
Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters at the Capitol that the U.S. believes chemical weapons were used twice, but the letter doesn't specify that.
"Our intelligence community does assess with varying degrees of confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a small scale in Syria, specifically the chemical agent sarin," the letter said.
"We do believe that any use of chemical weapons in Syria would very likely have originated with the Assad regime," it added.
"Thus far, we believe that the Assad regime maintains custody of these weapons, and has demonstrated a willingness to escalate its horrific use of violence against the Syrian people."
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said he had not seen the evidence supporting the assessment, but added that use of chemical agents "violates every convention of war."
Sarin is a man-made nerve agent that has been used in terrorist attacks in Japan and possibly during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. In large doses, it can cause convulsions, paralysis and death.
The U.S. has long believed that Syria was stockpiling chemical weapons. Intelligence reports indicate that it has sarin and the nerve agent tabun along with traditional chemicals like mustard gas and hydrogen cyanide. A 2011 CIA report said Syria was also developing the potent nerve agent VX, which could render a city uninhabitable for days.
Syria's information minister, Omran al-Zoubi, said in an interview with Russian TV that the government has not and will not use chemical weapons and blamed potential evidence of their existence on "armed terrorist groups," the state news agency reported.
A spokesman for the rebel Free Syrian Army, Fahd Almasri, claimed Syria has launched chemical attacks in nine places and was poised to do so again at the Lebanon border and in Damascus "when Assad knows he is finished."
"Now is the moment to find a solution very quickly," Almasri told NBC News in a phone interview.
President Obama has said the verified use of chemical weapons by the regime would be a "red line" and a "game-changer" for U.S. and international military intervention in the Syrian civil war.
"Precisely because the President takes this issue so seriously, we have an obligation to fully investigate any and all evidence of chemical weapons use within Syria," said the letter, which was signed by Obama's legislative director, Miguel Rodriguez.
The letter was a response to a request from a bipartisan group of senators who asked the White House for answers after the Israeli military’s top intelligence analyst cited photographs of people "foaming from the mouth” as evidence of chemical weapons use.
Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called the development “deeply troubling.”
“While more work needs to be done to fully verify this assessment…it is becoming increasingly clear that we must step up our efforts,” Corker said.
“I should make clear, however, that it if it comes to the use of military force, before the president takes any action to commit U.S. forces to any effort in Syria or elsewhere, I expect him to fully consult with the Senate and seek an authorization for the use of military force."
Sen. Dianne Feinstein, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said the assessment could spark a dangerous reaction from Damascus.
"I am very concerned that with this public acknowledgement, President Assad may calculate he has nothing more to lose and the likelihood he will further escalate this conflict therefore increases," Feinstein said.
The White House official called for a high level of scrutiny — but also caution.
"Given our own history with intelligence assessments, including intelligence assessments related to weapons of mass destruction, it's very important that we are able to establish this with certainty and that we are able to present information in a way that is airtight," the official said.
NBC News' Kasie Hunt, Kelly O'Donnell, Robert Windrem and Charlene Gubash contributed to this story
Slideshow: Syria uprising
A look back at the conflict that has overtaken the country.
Related:
_ 'Suffocating in the streets': Chemical weapons attack reported in Syria
_ Obama warns Syria's Assad not to use chemical weapons
This story was originally published on Thu Apr 25, 2013 11:56 AM EDT
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